So after Swansea’s win in the first round they must be looking forward to Wednesday’s game. Brentford will be encouraged with getting Rico Henry’s red card rescinded and being “at home” should give them some advantage? Having lost 3 on the bounce Brentford will have something to prove and will be looking to recapture their form from after lock-down. They’ve not lost 3 in a row all season, the last time they lost 2 in a row was at the start of the season, both away games, to Leeds and Charlton.
Brentford’s form since restart WWWWWWWLLL Swansea’s form, since restart WLDWWLDWWW
(Agg 2-0)
Fulham played some of the best football they’ve played all season against Cardiff in the first leg. There was a danger of Fulham being all out of sorts for the first leg after missing out on automatic promotion, although it was a ‘slim chance’ as we needed West Brom to loose (they didn’t), Brentford to loose or draw (they lost) and we needed to win, we drew. Then we got the news that Mitro’, winner of this season’s Golden Boot, had been injured in training and would miss the game however, he could be back for the game Thursday evening, or will he be rested/protected again? keeping him safe with a potential final in the offing. Cardiff will surly be looking for revenge, they’ve been on a really good run since the re-start added to the possibility of a Wembley final against their South Wales rivals, I’m certain they’ll make a game of it Thursday.
Cardiff have only lost 2 in a row once this season in February against Stoke and Forest.
Fulham’s form since restart LLWWWWDWDW Cardiff’s form since restart WWDWLWWWWL
COYWs
Play-off Semi-finals 2nd leg…
Wednesday 29th Brentford v Swansea
Thursday 30th Fulham v Cardiff
come on over to the forum and join in the discussion… https://www.friendsoffulham.com/forum/index.php?board=1.0
A lot has been mentioned about who has the better form going into the playoffs, it tends to go out the window as the playoffs start, but is also the only concrete thing people can try and base judgements on, rightly so. Brentford could be completely galvanised by their two recent losses, or they may feel like they let it slip and were found wanting, something which can deeply impact a clubs mentality.
That said, going into the final run of games, a lot was also said about how we had the hardest run in and in many ways, predictions for how the end of the season would go saw some having us down as 5th or 6th, or simply not having the results we’ve had.
Context therefore counts as everything.
So 9 game form since restart needs to be taken into account
Cardiff’s games were
(position of opposition)
(form position)
Leeds (2-0 win to Cardiff)
(1st)
(1st in previous six games)
Preston (3-1 win)
(7th)
(20th)
Charlton (0-0 draw)
(18th)
(16th)
Bristol City (1-0 win)
(12th)
(24th)
Blackburn Rovers (3-2 loss)
(11th)
(20th)
Fulham (2-0 loss)
(4th)
(6th)
Derby (2-1 win)
(10th)
(5th to Cardiff’s 4th at time)
Middlesbrough (3-1 win)
(19th)
(12th)
Hull City (3-0 win)
(23rd)
(23rd)
WWDWLLWWW (19 points) (median position of opposition 12th) (median form of teams faced – 14th)
16 goals for – 8 goals against. Leeds, Bristol, Charlton and Hull are the teams they kept clean sheets against.
44.6% possession on average over the season 65.5% passing accuracy over season.
A lot of Cardiff’s goals in their last six games have come early (around the 20 min mark), between 35 mins half time/just after or around the 80th minute.
in first 10 minutes – 1 goal, 10 – 20 minutes – 3 goals, 20-30 mins – 0 goals, 30-40 mins – 2 goals, 40-50 mins – 4 goals, 50-60mins – 1 goal, 60 – 70 mins – 1 goal, 70-80 mins – 1 goal, 80- end of match – 5 goals
over half of their 16 goals come in two periods of the game, the final 10 minutes and the 10 minutes either side of half time.
On a half by half split 10 goals of their 16 are scored in the second half equalling 63% with 3/4 coming from 40 minutes onwards, which suggests they tend to go for it at the beginning, settle into the game based on that and then push on around the times that count most.
They played without two of their more dangerous players when we last played in Glatzel and Tomlin, who both have 8 goals apiece scored this season (joint top), although both players came off the bench. Seven of their players have 7-8 goals this season.
If they play with their usual format and strongest team it will be 4-2-3-1 and they’ll line up with (crosses denote players who played in the game against us 7-11 – indicating a strong squad and a manager who has been rotating his players a bit either due to demand of games or strategy.
Smithies in goal x
Jo Bennett x Sean Morrison x Aden Flint Curtis Nelson x
Leandro Bacuna x Marlon Pack
Junior Hoillet x Lee Tomlin Nathaniel Mendez Laing x
Robert Glatzel
That said, that’d leave out Josh Murphy (who’s on a similar number of games as Tomlin, Glatzel and Mendez-Laing). They also against us with Jo Ralls (a CM) in the middle of the 3 and will Vaulks a CB as one of the two DM’s.. which suggests Neil Harris feels we’re a strong attacking side that needs to have a more defensive-minded team play us. According to sky and google, they played with a defender up front against us too?
Just seen Callum Patterson (25 yr old), started career as a RB, normally plays in midfield but sometimes also plays as a striker. Impressive versatility.
Fulham results
Fulham’s games
(position of opposition)
(form position)
Brentford (2-0 loss)
(4th)
(10th – on previous six games)
Leeds (3-0 loss)
(1st)
(1st)
QPR (2-1 win)
(13th)
(9th)
Birmingham (1-0 win)
(16th)
(21st)
Nottingham Forest (1-0 win)
(5th)
(7th)
Cardiff city (2-0 win)
(6th)
(5th to our 6th at the time of this game)
West Brom (0-0 draw)
(2nd)
(7th)
Sheffield Wednesday (5-3 win)
(14th)
(16th)
Wigan (1-1 draw)
(13th)
(wigan form 4th)
LLWWWWDWD (17 points) (Median position of opposition – 8th in league) – Median position in form table (9th)
12 goals for and 10 goals against. in our last six games we’ve kept 4 clean sheets against Cardiff, West Brom, Nottingham Forest and Birmingham.
Average Possession stats 58.3 passing accuracy 83.2
Hope that gives clarity to people in some ways… appreciate it’s not the most conclusive. Looks like we’re the stronger side, but it’ll be a close game with everyone at full strength. If we weather their storms and take our chances we could do well.
come on over to the forum and join in the discussion… https://www.friendsoffulham.com/forum/index.php?board=1.0
By Alex Bowmer | Twitter: @AlexJamesBowmer | Web: alexanderjamesbowmer.contently.com
The dust has now settled on another regular season in the Championship. While the football was often underwhelming, Fulham finish the campaign on a seven-match unbeaten run, with four of those performances yielding clean sheets. Here, Friends of Fulham casts an eye over some of the key statistics from Scott Parker’s first full season in charge and compares them to the last two years the Whites enjoyed in the second tier under Slaviša Jokanović.
Over-reliance on Mitro
An obvious point, but the statistics are stark. The prolific Serbian bagged 26 league goals in 2019/20 to claim the Championship Golden Boot. This tally represented a mammoth 41% of Fulham’s goals during the campaign.
To put this in context, Ryan Sessegnon was our top scorer in the league back in 2017/18, netting 15 goals. However, this made up only 19% of Fulham’s total, as the team netted 79 times over the course of the campaign compared to 64 occasions this season.
The previous season saw Tom Cairney, Stefan Johansen and Chris Martin make it to double figures, with Floyd Ayité and Sone Aluko not far behind. Cairney was our top marksman with 12 league goals, just 14% of our 85 goals that campaign.
Cairney was the next-highest goalscorer this term after Mitrović with eight goals, while new signings Ivan Cavaleiro and Bobby Decordova-Reid each scored six times. A new striker or two (if Mitrović leaves) is a must, whether we go up or not.
“The prolific Serbian bagged 26 league goals in 2019/20 to claim the Championship Golden Boot“
Poor form against struggling sides
This has been a theme under both Jokanović and Parker. Simply put, our record against teams lower than us in the table at the time we played them has stopped us getting promoted.
Our results in 2016/17 – 14 wins, 11 draws and seven defeats – meant average of just 1.66 points against these opponents. Disappointing single-goal losses against Birmingham and just one point against QPR in two encounters illustrate our struggles.
We actually fared against teams above us in the league that season, with the highlights coming in thumping wins over Huddersfield, as well as a 5-0 thrashing of Reading and a dominant display against Newcastle at St. James’ Park, where Ryan Sessegnon announced himself with a stunning double.
Overall, we finished the campaign with eight wins, three draws and three losses against these better-placed sides, with an average points tally of 1.93.
Our record in matches where we were the favourites certainly improved in 2017/18, as we upped our points average against these sides to 1.93. Nevertheless, disappointing defeats to Burton and Sunderland impeded our progress. Our record against ‘better’ sides produced an average points tally of 1.88.
This season has seen our record in matches we should win drop back slightly, with an average points total of 1.82. Shock three-goal home defeats against Barnsley and Hull spring to mind, along with a disappointing loss against Reading at the Cottage and a humiliation at Stoke in October. Our record against higher-placed teams this season was our worst of the three campaigns, producing an average of 1.50 points.
It should be achievable to break the two points-per-game barrier when playing sides lower down the league. If we had hit that mark in the last two Championship campaigns, we would have avoided the excruciating play-off tension.
“Fulham lose 3-0 to Barnsley at home back in February”
Powers of recovery
One of the things you get used to if you’ve watched Fulham long enough is the squandering of leads and conceding late goals.
This season was refreshing in this respect, with just two late goals seeing us drop points – against West Brom and Sheffield Wednesday on successive September weekends. The only other time we ended up dropping points after leading was away at Millwall in February, and that came courtesy of an incorrect offside call.
We have also managed two turnarounds against QPR, as well as gritty draws at Derby and Bristol City.
In total, we lost only six points after taking the lead, but gained 12 points after letting in first. Our football under Jokanović was much more expansive, and this is reflected in the unpredictability of matches.
In 2016/17, we lost 16 points after scoring first, but gained 23 points when the opposition drew first blood. Comeback wins over Barnsley, Rotherham, Nottingham Forest, Huddersfield and Sheffield Wednesday saw us score 15 goals.
Despite 2017/18 seeing us achieve our highest points total of the three seasons (88), we were very susceptible to dropping leads, especially during a patchy first half of the season. In total, we lost 19 points after scoring the first goal. Brentford were our nemesis, as we dropped five points against the Bees, while also conceding late against Norwich, Middlesbrough and Cardiff and throwing away a two-goal lead against QPR.
By contrast, we gained 16 points after going 1-0 down, most notably during wins over Ipswich (4-1), Sheffield United (4-5) and Barnsley (1-3).
While we did not gain as many points from losing positions compared to the season before, this can be explained by the fact that during our 23-game unbeaten run, we took the lead in 20 of those matches, going on to win 16 of those games and draw four.
“Cyrus Christie with a wonder strike against QPR, as we come back to win 2-1 at Loftus Road”
Conclusion
Parker’s Fulham have certainly not thrilled the fans in the same way Jokanović’s teams did and the current crop don’t play with the sort of dominance exhibited a few years ago.
Clearly, at least one new goalscorer needs to be found and the defence needs to tighten up, as we have conceded 48 goals this league campaign, marginally higher than 2017/18 (46).
However, we are in a good run of form and the class of 2019/20 have taken all three points in 22 of the 25 games in which they’ve broken the deadlock.
This Fulham side has gone under the radar, but they can replicate the heroics of two years ago and emerge victorious at Wembley.
“Fulham celebrate at Wembley, after beating Aston Villa in the 2018 Championship Playoff final”
Big thank you to Alex Bowmer for taking the time to write this article for Friends of Fulham, and make sure you give him a follow on Twitter @AlexJamesBowmer
Please also visit the Friends of Fulham Forum, where you can read more interesting topics on Fulham
Sunday and Monday see’s the first games of the play-off semi-finals.
The first of the play-off semi’s is Swansea v Brentford, Swansea gatecrashed the top six replacing Forest on the final day so they’ve got to be full of confidence especially as Brentford lost their last game?
Monday evening we get to travel to South Wales and take on Cardiff. Our two previous games against Cardiff earlier this season were 1-1 at their place last August and a 2-0 win at the Cottage earlier this month.
COYWs
Play-off Semi-finals 1st leg…
Sunday 26th Swansea v Brentford
Monday 27th Cardiff v Fulham
come on over to the forum and join in the discussion… https://www.friendsoffulham.com/forum/index.php?board=1.0
Our last “league” game of the season sees us travel up to Wigan.
So after the weekends results it’s all become very interesting hasn’t it! Who’d have thought that both Brentford & West Brom would have lost!? That means that there’s an “outside” chance that we could still get automatic promotion, it’s unlikely as we’d have to win, West Brom loose and Brentford either draw or loose, but you never know, stranger things have happened. For Brentford, they need West Brom to loose and either win or draw against Barnsley, they’ll then be promoted due to their better goal difference. West Brom play QPR, QPR are comfortable in 14 so effectively they’ve “nothing” to play for. If West Brom win, they go up, if they draw and Brentford don’t win, they go up, even if they draw and Fulham win then they’d go up unless Fulham win by 17 goals. Brentford face Barnsley who need to win to avoid relegation, Barnsley’s win against Forest on Sunday gives them a glimmer of hope, Barnsley need to win and hope that Charlton loose to Leeds.
As far as the play-offs are concerned we could face either West Brom, Brentford, Forest, Cardiff or Swansea, assuming we get to the final. If Cardiff loose and Swansea win then Swansea will have the same points but a better goal difference. If Forest loose then Swansea will need to change the goal difference by 6 as their currently 5 off of Forest’s goal difference, so if Forest loose 3-0 and Swansea win 3-0 then Swansea will go ahead of Forest.
All Fulham can do is to beat Wigan and hope other results go their way, we’ve a good record against Wigan, 9 wins, 1 loss and 10 draws so it’d be Fulhamish for West Brom, Brentford and us to loose!
COYWs
Games of Interest…
Wednesday 22nd Brentford v Barnsley Cardiff v Hull Forest v Stoke Reading Swansea West Brom v QPR Wigan v Fulham
come on over to the forum and join in the discussion… https://www.friendsoffulham.com/forum/index.php?board=1.0
For our last home “league” game of the season we welcome Sheffield Wednesday to the Cottage.
With only a draw against West Brom we’re now subject to the lottery that is the play-offs. It’s odd, getting to the play-offs should be seen as a successful season, but for some reason it doesn’t feel as it is?
Our last two “league” games are going to be non-events as effectively we’ve attained our final position. Forest, on 70, can’t catch us and we’d need either West Brom or Brentford to loose both their remaining games for us to reach 3rd and I can’t see either of them doing that.
Strangely we’re the only team in the top 10 who have “nothing” to play for, so in essence we’ve two competitive “practice” games for the play-offs, continuing our unbeaten run would be good for the fans confidence, I’m not sure if a defeat would make too much difference to the players? as I expect that they “know” they can win every game, it’s us fans who’ll suffer from the jitters.
Hopefully AK47 and Tom will be fit enough, giving AK47 two full games would go a long way? to brining him up to match fitness, if he’s available he’d be my first name on the team sheet.
I’ll be keeping an eye on Forest, Cardiff, Millwall and Swansea as we’ll have to play one of them, hopefully two of them as that would mean we’d get to the final. A win or a draw for Forest should confirm their top 6 spot but I can see Millwall sneaking past Cardiff.
Our recent games against Wednesday see them come out slightly on top with 5 wins, 4 losses and 3 draws.
COYWs
Games of interest…
Friday 17th Huddersfield v West Brom
Saturday 18th Charlton v Wigan Stoke v Brentford Fulham v Sheff Wed Middlesborough v Cardiff QPR v Millwall Swansea v Bristol City
Sunday 19th Derby v Leeds Barnsley v Forest
come on over to the forum and join in the discussion… https://www.friendsoffulham.com/forum/index.php?board=1.0
In this episode of FOF’cast, we are joined by Fulham fan Gerry Pimm, who is also secretary for the Fulham Supporters Trust, and Fulham fan Own Smith, who is also Treasurer for the Fulham Supporters Trust, and Friends of Fulham member.
In this show, we discuss the 2-0 win over Cardiff City. The return of Aleksandar Mitrović. Harrison Reed’s Man of Match. What’s happened to Tim Ream this season? Does Tom Cairney’s absence improve the team? The permanent signing of Anthony Knockhaert. Tuesdays important game v WBA, plus score prediction.
Make sure you also check out the Friends of Fulham Forum for all the latest Fulham gossip
Yet another strangely timed kick-off, 17:00, for our Tuesday evening game away to West Brom.
After a good win last Friday we get to play yet another “six pointer” this time against West Brom who will be looking to cement their automatic promotion position after their surprising draw against Blackburn Rovers on Saturday. It’s good to see Mitro’ back on the scoreboard, I wonder if we’ll see Tom Cairney back for this game?
Our record against West Brom has been reasonably good over the last few meetings with 5 wins, 2 losses and 5 draws.
A win would see us close the gap to 2 points between us and 2nd place West Brom however, it could benefit Brentford more as assuming they get a result against Preston NE on Wednesday they’d move ahead of West Brom on goal difference, and 3 points behind the league leaders, at least until the result of the Leeds game on Thursday.
It’s all getting really interesting isn’t it. COYWs
Games of Interest…
Tuesday 14th West Brom v Fulham Cardiff v Derby Luton v QPR Millwall v Rovers
Wednesday 15th Brentford v Preston NE Birmingham v Charlton Forest v Swansea
Thursday 16th Leeds v Barnsley
come on over to the forum and join in the discussion… https://www.friendsoffulham.com/forum/index.php?board=1.0
Friday evening see’s us welcome Cardiff City to the Cottage for a 20:15 kick-off
With the 3 match ban over I’m sure we’ll see Mitro back in the starting line-up, I’m just wondering whats happened to AK47? and if Tom will be available? you’d think the club would give us a clue?
Cardiff are another team that we have mixed results against with 4 wins, 4 losses and 6 draws. They’re on a bit of a run since the re-start, most impressive was their 2-0 win over Leeds, having won 4 and drawn 1, although they lost against Rovers on Tuesday it’ll still be a tough game for us Friday evening.
COYWs
Games of Interest…
Friday 10th Fulham v Cardiff
Saturday 11th Charlton v Reading Derby v Brentford Rovers v West Brom Hull v Millwall Preston NE v Forest QPR v Sheff Wed
Sunday 12th Swansea v Leeds
come on over to the forum and join in the discussion… https://www.friendsoffulham.com/forum/index.php?board=1.0
