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On a much, much brighter note...1 point is better than 3 other teams

Started by ChesterTheTabby, February 22, 2014, 05:10:53 PM

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ChesterTheTabby

I know we are all super pissed off - but remember ladies and gents, we only need to be 1 point above three teams at the end of this, regardless of GD. I think we can do it.
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Someone once asked me, "Why Fulham?".
My response, "Well, lad, you just haven't seen the light yet"

Northern Cottager

Seriously, where do you see at least 5 wins coming from?

We have Everton, Man City and Chelsea in there as well as an away game at Stoke amongst others... We don't have a chance, today's as our chance to make a move up there ague and we rolled over, again.

ChesterTheTabby

Ladies and Gents,

Magath came so close to delivering us a win in his first game in charge of English football ever! Not only that, but the players will feel his wrath this week for letting those points slip. He will scare the lads so badly so let it happen again that it won't. He delivered us a point away from home, in his first game in charge after only 8 days of training. We will survive!
Someone once asked me, "Why Fulham?".
My response, "Well, lad, you just haven't seen the light yet"


ChesterTheTabby

Quote from: Northern Cottager on February 22, 2014, 05:12:54 PM
Seriously, where do you see at least 5 wins coming from?

We have Everton, Man City and Chelsea in there as well as an away game at Stoke amongst others... We don't have a chance, today's as our chance to make a move up there ague and we rolled over, again.

It is attitudes like that which have put us in this situation, friend. I am one who also is usually extremely negative - but with 33 points left to play for, we are still not out. Hell, we won't be out of it until the last few games of the season. A win can come from any game at any time. An own goal, a through ball, a last minute PK....we can win any of the games ahead.
Someone once asked me, "Why Fulham?".
My response, "Well, lad, you just haven't seen the light yet"

Northern Cottager

Quote from: maoconnor on February 22, 2014, 05:19:47 PM
Quote from: Northern Cottager on February 22, 2014, 05:12:54 PM
Seriously, where do you see at least 5 wins coming from?

We have Everton, Man City and Chelsea in there as well as an away game at Stoke amongst others... We don't have a chance, today's as our chance to make a move up there ague and we rolled over, again.

It is attitudes like that which have put us in this situation, friend. I am one who also is usually extremely negative - but with 33 points left to play for, we are still not out. Hell, we won't be out of it until the last few games of the season. A win can come from any game at any time. An own goal, a through ball, a last minute PK....we can win any of the games ahead.

No, you're bang on. Its my fault were bottom of the league, can't defend, hold onto leads until the last 5 minutes amongst he other 300 reasons were going down.

We got own goals against Liverpool, we threw it away.

Fulham Phil

I like your optimism!
Lets hope he gives em a blast, but really it was the same old failings, let a goal in near the end!
At least it was only one which is an improvement!


MiltonBurrows

Granted, second half was atrocious, but we still came away with a point. My only fear is there's seems to be a lot of what if situations which are too common in a relegation season. What if Steks had made that save? What if Reuther didnt make that challenge against Liverpool? It's not over yet, with 33 points to play for, and a point is better than nothing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please"

Robbie

It is going to be very very tight. The only good news is Cardiff are looking dire, Sunderland are slipping

Bronaldinho

Quote from: MiltonBurrows on February 22, 2014, 05:28:22 PM
Granted, second half was atrocious, but we still came away with a point. My only fear is there's seems to be a lot of what if situations which are too common in a relegation season. What if Steks had made that save? What if Reuther didnt make that challenge against Liverpool? It's not over yet, with 33 points to play for, and a point is better than nothing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What if we didn't have like 10 deflected goals scored against us and they flew into row z?
@ABronsSmith

Author of 'The Craven Corner' blog - Hosted in the matchday programme, SB Nation & thecravencorner.wordpress.com


Aaron

Quote from: maoconnor on February 22, 2014, 05:10:53 PM
I know we are all super pissed off - but remember ladies and gents, we only need to be 1 point above three teams at the end of this, regardless of GD. I think we can do it.
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That's not particularly accurate.

We need to get 5 points which go unanswered by any of the teams in the range between us and Palace to escape the relegation zone, two of these teams have a game in hand and Palace have two.

A realistic total for us in March is between 0 and 3 points and (apart from Cardiff) all of our games are against teams which aren't in the same fight as us.

Cardiff, Sunderland, Norwich, West Brom and Palace all have six pointers galore coming up in March which means that there is a mathematical certainty that at least some of the teams around us will improve their points tally as the points (irrespective of results) must be distributed between teams we are in direct competition with.

With this in mind, we will likely be going into the Villa game somewhere between 5 and 10 points adrift and the worst goal difference since Derby County's last showing in the league.

It's alright being optimistic, but there's no point deluding yourself that we need to be "one point better" than three other teams.

ChesterTheTabby

Quote from: Aaron on February 22, 2014, 05:38:04 PM
Quote from: maoconnor on February 22, 2014, 05:10:53 PM
I know we are all super pissed off - but remember ladies and gents, we only need to be 1 point above three teams at the end of this, regardless of GD. I think we can do it.
S001.gif 049:gif


That's not particularly accurate.

We need to get 5 points which go unanswered by any of the teams in the range between us and Palace to escape the relegation zone, two of these teams have a game in hand and Palace have two.

A realistic total for us in March is between 0 and 3 points and (apart from Cardiff) all of our games are against teams which aren't in the same fight as us.

Cardiff, Sunderland, Norwich, West Brom and Palace all have six pointers galore coming up in March which means that there is a mathematical certainty that at least some of the teams around us will improve their points tally as the points (irrespective of results) must be distributed between teams we are in direct competition with.

With this in mind, we will likely be going into the Villa game somewhere between 5 and 10 points adrift and the worst goal difference since Derby County's last showing in the league.

It's alright being optimistic, but there's no point deluding yourself that we need to be "one point better" than three other teams.

Where were the mathematics when we survived in the Great escape? We were mathematically out of the Premier league until the last day of the season. Then we survived. Granted we survived on GD which we no longer have. The point is that we have proved the mathematics wrong before and we can do it again. Do under estimate the power of Fulham late on in seasons to get wins out of nothing. If you want to throw mathematics into it - we had no business even getting a point today, or against United, but we did. All I am saying, is that we can do this. Give Magath a chance to really discipline these guys. And hey, if we go down - we have an owner that will want us back up as soon as possible.
Someone once asked me, "Why Fulham?".
My response, "Well, lad, you just haven't seen the light yet"

Admin

QPR went and lost again today, away to a struggling Charlton. Maybe they will get their cup final again next season..


Admin

Yes we let a late goal in near the end, but usually we give a goal up just before half time, or even 10 minutes into it. Yes it was poor again, but I thought we fort harder than usual and I'm 99.9% certain we'd have lost this under Rene'.

Buffalo76

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Aaron

I appreciate what you're saying, but in the context of your original post what you are saying is inaccurate.

If the teams around us all had fixtures against teams in the top 10 next month then mathematics wouldn't really matter as much as the points could in theory end up being given to teams outside the relegation battle.  But let's just take Sunderland next month:

Sunderland V Crystal Palace
Norwich V Sunderland
Sunderland V West Ham
Sunderland v West Brom (if rescheduled..)

It doesn't matter who wins, who loses or if they all end up in draws.  These are points which must be given to teams around us and there are hordes of these type of fixtures amongst our fellow relegation battlers next month.  We can't hope for "results to go our way" and a sneaky draw at Chelsea to help us close the gap as no matter what happens in our games someone around us benefits from additional points regardless.

I can't remember how the fixture list looked for those around us during the great escape, but March is going to be a horrible, horrible month for us as even if we do pull out a couple of surprises we're highly unlikely to make any headway on closing the gap.


Blanco

I still can't see them not coming up. They'll definitely be in the playoffs unless their team collapses. Still, let's hope for the best. I'd take them coming up 1000x if it meant us surviving though. At least we'll have a winnable derby.

Admin

Quote from: Blanco on February 22, 2014, 06:01:36 PM
I still can't see them not coming up. They'll definitely be in the playoffs unless their team collapses. Still, let's hope for the best. I'd take them coming up 1000x if it meant us surviving though. At least we'll have a winnable derby.

Here it is, Fulhamish hasn't really raised it's head this season, not likely to the way we're playing, but it will, it has to, it's part of Fulham. Fulhamish will end up being us staying up and them staying down. Put your bottom dollar on it.

LillieBoy

Quote from: Admin on February 22, 2014, 06:05:38 PM
Quote from: Blanco on February 22, 2014, 06:01:36 PM
I still can't see them not coming up. They'll definitely be in the playoffs unless their team collapses. Still, let's hope for the best. I'd take them coming up 1000x if it meant us surviving though. At least we'll have a winnable derby.

Here it is, Fulhamish hasn't really raised it's head this season, not likely to the way we're playing, but it will, it has to, it's part of Fulham. Fulhamish will end up being us staying up and them staying down. Put your bottom dollar on it.

I wish.

But I stopped hoping ages ago.


jarv

Apart from Cardiff, a dead cert to go, who are these other 2 teams???

Admin

Quote from: jarv on February 22, 2014, 06:16:01 PM
Apart from Cardiff, a dead cert to go, who are these other 2 teams???

Something screams Norwich.