Play off place and why Brum game is so important

[rogerpbackinMidEastUS]

At the moment we're only 5 points off a play off place, and that's Birmingham on 25 points

But, we're 10 points off the 5th team, although the top five only have 30/31 points it's still a big gap.

So, the only team in our immediate sights is Birmingham.
Irrespective of what Reading and Sheffield do on Saturday, a win against Brum would put us only
2 points behind them and even if Reading and Sheffield both win only 4 points behind them with all of us
battling for that 6th place.
If Brum beat us they will still be the closest top 6 to us but they will then be 8 points above us

If any of the top 5 win and we lose they would be 13/14 points above us and virtually out of reach, if they all win (I haven't checked if any are playing each other) it would be a mountain to climb.
If we win and any of them lose we would only be 7/8 points behind that team and it drags 1 or 2 teams back into our sights.

Given our erratic form (and I don't count last night)  the Psychological difference between 13/14 points and 7/8 is immense.

A draw doesn't rely do a lot.

I trust this makes sense

[MJG]

As some know I never look at the 'teams'  and I'm more concerned with the points and games played.
Currently 6th place will be 79 points.  I expect it will be at the end of the season in the 75-77 range.  That's above my initial target of 73 which is the average for 6th place.
As such to get 77 we need 57 from 31 games.
To give you a better understanding of the form needed,  we would have 27/28  points today if we averaged that for first 15 games.

Can we be the 5/6th best team for rest of season?

[love4ffc]

So what you all are saying is that we need Paul of Tarsus to do all team motivational talks from henceforth? 

Makes perfect sense to me  :008:

[GW02]

Am not too worried about points difference at this stage of the season, I think the importance of this game is to show how we stack up against the top half teams.

So far we have won drawn and lost 5, of the 5 loses 3 of them are against the current top 3, on the other hand only one of our wins has come against teams currently above us - when Reading crumbled in ten minutes against us. If we are to kick on to playoffs we must be beating top half teams like Birmingham at home.

[rogerpbackinMidEastUS]

I think I should stick to stupid posts.
I write an extremely well thought out and topical post and it get virtually ignore.

:dft004:

[Fulham Tup North]

Derby started like a train last season and were fav's to go up, right up until the last couple of games.
Teams implode and there is always one or two sides who fly out of the pack and grab a play-off place.  We need to just make sure that we are in a position where a good kick on over the final 10 games means we are in the mix.
Big win against B'ham Saturday and suddenly its all positive going into the break.
COYW

[MJG]

Myth buster
Last five season,  table at March 1st and then the end.

[rogerpbackinMidEastUS]

My main point was that the further away the top 5 get in the next week or so, it may be
that there are 4/5 teams (including us I think) chasing just one spot (6th place)
Our form is erratic, we can be fantastic or crop or blandly average.
So if we are chasing 5 teams.........zzzzzzzzzzzz

[rogerpbackinMidEastUS]

This is how the table looked after 16 games last season (the point we'll be at after the Birmingham game) with the teams that ultimately made the top 6 highlighted orange.

1   Bournemouth   30
2   Middlesbrough   30
------------------------------------
3   Watford      29
4   Derby      29
5   Ipswich      27
6   Wolves      27
------------------------------------
7   Norwich      26
8   Blackburn      26
9   Brentford      25

Obviously it doesn't bode well.

I do still think it relevant that more than half our current first XI were new signings this year, with possible the implications that we got off to a disproportionately bad start (several of our best XI hadn't even signed until game 5/6) and that we can perhaps expect to improve as the team goes on and the players gel... perhaps

The main difference is that the points tally between us and 5th place now is 10 points
Last year it was only 2 points.
This season there are 5 teams opening up quite a decent gap and if we did lose on Saturday
that could be the equivalent of nearly 5 wins behind them and nearly 3 wins behind Brum.

[St Eve]

My heart wants us to beat Brum on Saturday and challenge for the play offs. My brain tells me we are an averaged championship team and we should forget about all these play off discussions

[love4ffc]

I think I should stick to stupid posts.
I write an extremely well thought out and topical post and it get virtually ignore.

:dft004:

Guess I'm the only one who gets you and can tell the difference between your stupid post and your holly cow he actually is intelligent post.... :021:

[westcliff white]

I would take a point from the Brum game as for me the 3 games after the international break are all very winnable taking 10 points from the next 4 would be a good return for us.

[WoodyFFC73]

We'd all be ecstatic if we made the play offs/got automatic promotion. But the fact we're looking at points differentials etc suggests to me that the team currently aren't quite ready to challenge. Hopefully that will change, maybe we'll win all our remaining games  :005: That'd do it.

And if we did? The squad would need a massive overhaul (again). I don't see many prem quality players in this team. It'd be fun watching us try though. 049:gif

[westcliff white]

Woody, I think Lonners, Betts (needs more consistency though) O'Hara, Tunners, Cairney, Ross and Dembele would all be solid in the premier div maybe not outstanding but solid. Fredericks would be OK too I think.

But we would need a few more coming in, for sure.

[WoodyFFC73]

Woody, I think Lonners, Betts (needs more consistency though) O'Hara, Tunners, Cairney, Ross and Dembele would all be solid in the premier div maybe not outstanding but solid. Fredericks would be OK too I think.

But we would need a few more coming in, for sure.

agreed, those were the few I was thinking too. O'Hara may even not make it coz of his age by then, but i'd like to think he could. But that's 5 outfield players. highlights how many players we'd need. pretty scary really.

[Neil D]

I think I should stick to stupid posts.
I write an extremely well thought out and topical post and it get virtually ignore.

:dft004:

Guess I'm the only one who gets you and can tell the difference between your stupid post and your holly cow he actually is intelligent post.... :021:

Pray, sir, then enlighten us...

[bill taylors apprentice]

A win on Saturday is essential in my view, that gives us 23 from 16, not great but not far away from Brentfords 25 from 16.

Of course we would then have to match their run last season at least to achieve top 6.

And that's the problem! 1.8 points per game for the rest of the season looks to far away.

[Dixie]

As some know I never look at the 'teams'  and I'm more concerned with the points and games played.
Currently 6th place will be 79 points.  I expect it will be at the end of the season in the 75-77 range.  That's above my initial target of 73 which is the average for 6th place.
As such to get 77 we need 57 from 31 games.
To give you a better understanding of the form needed,  we would have 27/28  points today if we averaged that for first 15 games.

Can we be the 5/6th best team for rest of season?

so 19 wins from 31 games
or 13 wins and 18 draws would do it - we can surely go the rest of the season undefeated!!

[MJG]

As some know I never look at the 'teams'  and I'm more concerned with the points and games played.
Currently 6th place will be 79 points.  I expect it will be at the end of the season in the 75-77 range.  That's above my initial target of 73 which is the average for 6th place.
As such to get 77 we need 57 from 31 games.
To give you a better understanding of the form needed,  we would have 27/28  points today if we averaged that for first 15 games.

Can we be the 5/6th best team for rest of season?

so 19 wins from 31 games
or 13 wins and 18 draws would do it - we can surely go the rest of the season undefeated!!

Basically have 7 ways to reach 77 pts over next 31 games.


W---D---L
19--0--12
18--3--10
17--6--8
16--9--6
15--12--4
14--15--2
13--18--0

I see only these two are the way we can get it

17--6--8
16--9--6

A reminder we are 5-5-5 for first 15 games

[alexmur]

I think I should stick to stupid posts.
I write an extremely well thought out and topical post and it get virtually ignore.

:dft004:

please don't I really enjoyed your original post, I knew the brum game was important but your post really hit home just how much. all I ever want each week is 3 points and we all know what points get you......... prizes!

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