Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20

[MJG]

Think I'm right in saying this is first time we have fallen behind points wise where we were in our promotion season....and of course only 3rd maybe until later on.

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[MJG]

Random @FulhamFC Stats:

Since Xmas (11 games)
-19 Points (good enough for 3 or 4th finish)
-13 goals for and 12 against
Mitro scored the last 4

Before xmas avg of 1.41 gls per game, since xmas 1.18

Form wise:
Last 10 games: 5th
Last 8: 3rd
Last 6: 8th
Last 4: 14th

[MJG]

Top 6 at 35 games for last 10 years

[Statto]

So essentially with our current points total we should be around 5th rather than 3rd. That sounds about right to me, ie that we're currently in a slightly false position.

[MJG]

[MJG]

I was asked on Twitter what the table looked like in the year we went up....

[MJG]

Table compared to 17/18 shows that only 2 more points across the league had been achived by game 35.
But top 6 well down and top half down as well.

[The Rational Fan]

Table compared to 17/18 shows that only 2 more points across the league had been achived by game 35.
But top 6 well down and top half down as well.

It indicates the table has a weak top half of the table and strong bottom half. Why is that the case? And, will this change next season with promotion of three weak teams and possibly relegation of three stronger teams?

[Statto]

It indicates the table has a weak top half of the table and strong bottom half. Why is that the case?

It could just mean one of those things. For example, that the top half is the same but the bottom half is exceptionally strong this year.

[Radiowhite]

So essentially with our current points total we should be around 5th rather than 3rd. That sounds about right to me, ie that we're currently in a slightly false position.

Surely it's not false because its the same for every team

[Statto]

So essentially with our current points total we should be around 5th rather than 3rd. That sounds about right to me, ie that we're currently in a slightly false position.

Surely it's not false because its the same for every team

No I don't think it works like that.
To give an example, earlier this season there was a stage where West Brom and Leeds were pulling away from everyone else, including us, and both on course for 100+ pts. I said, based on research similar to MJG's above, that it was highly unlikely that they'd both get so many points so we could expect them to start dropping points as the season progresses. Soon after, as expected, they both went through a terrible patch of form, bringing their points totals back down around average levels.
Similarly if we carry on getting the same amount of points per game that we've averaged so far, i'd expect a couple of the teams below us to pick up their form and overtake us.
Of course this could always be an exceptional season, but more often than not things level themselves out before the season ends and finish up around the average levels.

[The Rational Fan]

So essentially with our current points total we should be around 5th rather than 3rd. That sounds about right to me, ie that we're currently in a slightly false position.

Surely it's not false because its the same for every team

No I don't think it works like that.
To give an example, earlier this season there was a stage where West Brom and Leeds were pulling away from everyone else, including us, and both on course for 100+ pts. I said, based on research similar to MJG's above, that it was highly unlikely that they'd both get so many points so we could expect them to start dropping points as the season progresses. Soon after, as expected, they both went through a terrible patch of form, bringing their points totals back down around average levels.
Similarly if we carry on getting the same amount of points per game that we've averaged so far, i'd expect a couple of the teams below us to pick up their form and overtake us.
Of course this could always be an exceptional season, but more often than not things level themselves out before the season ends and finish up around the average levels.

In the last five seasons, at least one team has got 23+ points in the last 11 games to make the playoffs and they are normally the favourite to go up. There are 10-14 teams that could get into the playoffs with such a points run, and the form team normally wins the playoff too. Whether its automatic promotion or playoff promotion to go up we need to play very very well from now on in, which requires massive improvement in our attack and a little more solid defensive too.   

[Jim©]

So essentially with our current points total we should be around 5th rather than 3rd. That sounds about right to me, ie that we're currently in a slightly false position.

Should be 5th when comparing to previous seasons, but of course these points statistics are relevant only to that specific season. It doesn't really matter if we end up with "only" 71 points, if that has us 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th, it is of little relevance in the grand scheme of things.
One thing is clear this season (whether the top teams are worse or the bottom teams better) is that the bottom half are much more competitive than I remember.

[Statto]

So essentially with our current points total we should be around 5th rather than 3rd. That sounds about right to me, ie that we're currently in a slightly false position.

Should be 5th when comparing to previous seasons, but of course these points statistics are relevant only to that specific season. It doesn't really matter if we end up with "only" 71 points, if that has us 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th, it is of little relevance in the grand scheme of things.
One thing is clear this season (whether the top teams are worse or the bottom teams better) is that the bottom half are much more competitive than I remember.

Well the averages from previous seasons are relevant to this season because the likelihood is that points levels will shift closer to those levels over the remainder of the season. So yes, if the season ended today then all that would matter is our league position, but given there's a quarter of the season left, we should be mindful of the likely end-of-season totals and that we may actually be on course for a different position.

With that said, I agree that the bottom half teams seem more competitive this year, and therefore this may be one of those seasons where the top 6 get less points than usual

[MJG]

So essentially with our current points total we should be around 5th rather than 3rd. That sounds about right to me, ie that we're currently in a slightly false position.

Should be 5th when comparing to previous seasons, but of course these points statistics are relevant only to that specific season. It doesn't really matter if we end up with "only" 71 points, if that has us 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th, it is of little relevance in the grand scheme of things.
One thing is clear this season (whether the top teams are worse or the bottom teams better) is that the bottom half are much more competitive than I remember.

Well the averages from previous seasons are relevant to this season because the likelihood is that points levels will shift closer to those levels over the remainder of the season. So yes, if the season ended today then all that would matter is our league position, but given there's a quarter of the season left, we should be mindful of the likely end-of-season totals and that we may actually be on course for a different position.

With that said, I agree that the bottom half teams seem more competitive this year, and therefore this may be one of those seasons where the top 6 get less points than usual

when you look at the championship now with luton bottom(who have not been in the 2nd tier for quite a while) everyone else has been in Championship at least for one season in the last few. They all are strong teams. Just as the Pl has got stronger across the league the same has happened in the championship. There are no whipping boys this season.

the bottom 6 have 30 points more than the bottom 6 last year at this stage.

if you look 10th has 50 points both seasons, its below that where it stretches out

[ffc73]

For me it is more entertaining when the competition is on a more equal footing with one another.  I prefer to think that the overall standard has increased rather than deteriorated.

A big disadvantage with the Premier League is the lack of competitiveness for the title.  Liverpool are very good but so far ahead that their is little to play for.  At least the "big 6" are struggling more this season and lower down, I do not have the stats, that league appears tighter / more competitive too.

[Woolly Mammoth]

It is not healthy for any League any Division to have teams walk away with trophies leaving a slipstream behind them for the rest of the herd to fight over the left overs. Even if it is a top 4 with rest of teams as also rans. That is why it is refreshing to see the likes of Sheffield United and Wolverhampton Wanderers getting a slice of the action, and Burnley giving teams a bloody nose now and again.
Along with many others they are the backbone and the roots of the English football all away down the football pyramid, with loyal supporters who follow them through thick and thin, unlike the plastic fans who only support the teams that win and buy their success. Never forget your roots.

[MJG]

Championship as it stands after game 36.

-2nd place Target 88 (if we beat both Leeds and WBA that becomes 86) meaning FFC would need to get  17pts from other 8 games.

-Gap & form

-Year on Year gives hope to teams as far down as Cardiff.

-Top 3 IF we beat both.

[MJG]

Number of points each POSITION improved over last 10 games for last 10 years. If the Avg was the same this season table would end up:
1st: 90
2nd: 87
3rd: 81
4th: 77
5th: 73
6th: 72

[toshes mate]

Interesting stuff, MJG.

The gap between first and twelfth place is twenty one points and just under 0.6 PPG.
The gap between thirteenth and twenty fourth places is fourteen points and just under 0.4PPG.
That suggests the top half is less compacted than the bottom half and supports an argument that the Championship has a more even spread of strength overall than may often be the case.  However, it could turn out that weaknesses and strengths appear in the bottom half of the table over the next ten games that also impact upon results for those in the top half making the whole table appear more compacted by season's end.

I think we need nine wins from ten games to be sure of a top two finish and even then goal difference could still make things tight.