Corona update from Fulham fc (new info added)

[ByTheRiver]

Arteta just confirmed now. All football will be postponed from tomorrow morning almost certainly.

Its not a football thing,he's just another person who has it,like Joe Bloggs who works in Gregg's in Bury St Edmunds.
Will they close all their shops?

You were saying...?

[Ged]

The risk of dying from coronavirus when it peeks will be the same for all ages over 20 because you will need specialist care when the system is over run .

No it won't, because the risk of developing the complications that require specialist care will still be much higher in the elderly.

The Median age (average) of people with complications is 54 its just that older people and those with underlying conditions die even with specialist care without it younger people will start to die

Median is mid-point, not mean.
So if one person with complications was aged 25 and 99 were aged 85, the median of those 100 people would be 55

The point i am making is that the 25 year old would die without specialist care so younger people will start dying when hospitals become full
According to the WHO Situation Report no. 7
•   The median age of cases detected outside of China is 45 years, ranging from 2 to 74 years.
•   71% of cases were male.
•   A study of 138 hospitalized patients with NCIP found that the median age was 56 years
The WHO, in addresses the question: "Does the new coronavirus affect older people, or are younger people also susceptible?" by answering that:
•   People of all ages can be infected by the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
•   Older people, and people with pre-existing medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, heart disease) appear to be more vulnerable
•   Patient who died in the Philippines was a 44-year old male
The patient who died in the Philippines what was the first death occurring outside of China, was a 44-year-old who was admitted after experiencing fever, cough, and sore throat, before developing severe pneumonia. In the last few days, "the patient was stable and showed signs of improvement, however, the condition of the patient deteriorated within his last 24 hours resulting in his demise." according to the Philippine Department of Health.
Serious Cases of 30 year old patients in France
According to French authorities, the conditions of the two earliest Paris cases had worsened and the patients were being treated in intensive care, according to French authorities. The patients have been described as a young couple aged 30 and 31 years old,

[Statto]

Ged, I'm not suggesting that no young person has caught coronavirus, developed complications or even died. I'm well aware of the small number of cases you mention. But the fact remains that the younger you are, the less likely you are (a) to develop even mild symptoms, (b) to develop severe symptoms/complications, and (c) to die. I'm not going to argue any more, partly because it's such a clear cut issue that there's not much to argue about, but also because it's frankly immaterial. Many thousands of people will die and it doesn't really make much difference what age they are. I just wanted to dispute your scaremongering about the mortality rate, which I don't think is helpful.

[Tabby]

The Median age (average) of people with complications is 54 its just that older people and those with underlying conditions die even with specialist care without it younger people will start to die

Median is mid-point, not mean.
So if one person with complications was aged 25 and 99 were aged 85, the median of those 100 people would be 55

No, median means the middle value. So half of the people are 54 or younger and the other half are 54 or older. The median in your example would be 85.

People use median for things like wages too, so that some bloke making 5 billion per year doesn't skew the results.

[Ged]

The Median age (average) of people with complications is 54 its just that older people and those with underlying conditions die even with specialist care without it younger people will start to die

Median is mid-point, not mean.
So if one person with complications was aged 25 and 99 were aged 85, the median of those 100 people would be 55

No, median means the middle value. So half of the people are 54 or younger and the other half are 54 or older. The median in your example would be 85.

People use median for things like wages too, so that some bloke making 5 billion per year doesn't skew the results.

Thats right
so according to WHO the median age is 45 from cases aged 2-74 outside of China meaning that there are the same number of cases above age 45 as below that need Hospital treatment

[Statto]

The Median age (average) of people with complications is 54 its just that older people and those with underlying conditions die even with specialist care without it younger people will start to die

Median is mid-point, not mean.
So if one person with complications was aged 25 and 99 were aged 85, the median of those 100 people would be 55

No, median means the middle value. So half of the people are 54 or younger and the other half are 54 or older. The median in your example would be 85.

People use median for things like wages too, so that some bloke making 5 billion per year doesn't skew the results.

Thats right
so according to WHO the median age is 45 from cases aged 2-74 outside of China meaning that there are the same number of cases above age 45 as below that need Hospital treatment

(1) 45? It was 54 a minute ago!
(2) what sort of study is this that doesn't include anyone over the age of 74? Care to share a link?
(3) Even if my GCSE maths has let me down and I've forgotten the meaning of "median", none of this changes what I said above. Younger = less chance of mild symptoms, less chance of severe symptoms and less chance of death. Says every single scientist.

[Ged]

The Median age (average) of people with complications is 54 its just that older people and those with underlying conditions die even with specialist care without it younger people will start to die

Median is mid-point, not mean.
So if one person with complications was aged 25 and 99 were aged 85, the median of those 100 people would be 55

No, median means the middle value. So half of the people are 54 or younger and the other half are 54 or older. The median in your example would be 85.

People use median for things like wages too, so that some bloke making 5 billion per year doesn't skew the results.

Thats right
so according to WHO the median age is 45 from cases aged 2-74 outside of China meaning that there are the same number of cases above age 45 as below that need Hospital treatment

(1) 45? It was 54 a minute ago!
(2) what sort of study is this that doesn't include anyone over the age of 74? Care to share a link?
(3) Even if my GCSE maths has let me down and I've forgotten the meaning of "median", none of this changes what I said above. Younger = less chance of mild symptoms, less chance of severe symptoms and less chance of death. Says every single scientist.

1 I didn't realize we were arguing
2 this info is from WHO https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200127-sitrep-7-2019--ncov.pdf
3 Everybody is at risk but the older you are the higher the risk WHO are saying `  The risk of severe disease gradually increases with age starting from around 40 years. It's
important that adults in this age range protect themselves`https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200311-sitrep-51-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1ba62e57_10

[ALG01]

Proud to be British, measured, science-based, risk-based.
Closing down the economy for a quite low risk chance of serious illness ... is mad.

Ireland, Italy, US ... mad !

1016 dead might justify the Italian response or are they just stupid foreigners?

The mortality rate is now 8% in Italy! My opinion which includes looking at the dramatic collaps of world stock markets is that the whole situation around the world is far worse than what we are being told! I hope I am wrong but this is begining to resemble 1 of those weird catastrophe films, the posting about proud to be British, ridiculous, hope none of the poster´s (Robbie´s) family become affected or worse!

Two things Dave.
1. Italy has an unusually high age group in the areas most affected and that is thought to be the reason the mortality rate is quite so high.
2. In China the new infection rate is very low and the mortality rate is probably better estimated at around 2ish% last time I saw it.

The virus is bad but if handled properly will be got over.

What I do think is the story of the virus originating from a bat or food market is highly suspicious and unlikely... if I was a research journalist I would try and find out where it really started.

[Statto]

OK so that article, besides being two months old and only analysing 37 cases, says the median age of persons infected is 45. It doesn't say the median age of infected people developing complications is 45. So yes you can still get coronavirus if you're young, I didn't dispute that. But you're much less likely than an elderly person to get severe symptoms or complications. Which seems to be what you're saying in your point (3). So maybe we agree after all.

[toshes mate]

There is an awful lot of assumption making going on including at the highest levels (WHO) because vital pieces of the puzzle are still missing.  Only by testing large numbers can vital parts of the puzzle be discovered and, already, rates of change in infection and mortality rates are appearing via more thorough testing. 

My own view about the measures taken and being taken (any and all of them) is that they will prove or disprove their worth over time and so we must wait to see what happens via the statistics too.  Most deaths are occurring via underlying and already existing health conditions but that is often the case with any form of influenza. 

There are just so many questions being asked and not many sensible answers being received simply because the evidence is not clear as it stands.  Panic seems the last thing anyone should do.

[Woolly Mammoth]

Yes it is all cause for concern, and we have to be vigilant and I fully understand why the Football League have cancelled the Fixtures, and the government have deployed the agenda they have. 
But you have to stay calm, and the media love a bad news story.
But when I see the brain dead buying up toilet rolls like there was no tomorrow and walking around in suits of armour, I worry for the future of the human race.
Lots of chit chat on here as inevitably will be, and we all wish to protect our loved ones first and foremost as well as the remainder of the population.
The key is to become immune from this virus and buy time to create a vaccination to prevent it like we do with other ailments.
I was not actually there at the time, but I remember the plague of London whereupon people were dragging carts along the streets shouting " Bring out your dead " and loading corpses on the back of the carts, and painting red markings on all doors of dwellings known to be infected.
The last time I looked I do not think it has got to that stage yet.
Therefore, a balanced view is needed as with all challenges and threats to life and limb. Many people have a screaming fit when Coronation Street is cancelled because they are showing a football match, so I dread to think how this will effect them. Probably acting like Lemmings leap off cliffs in their droves. Their was always a likelihood something of this nature would occur again, and I shall take this episode as seriously as the next 73 old. 
Nevertheless like all diseases that have not got a cure there are going to be fatalities, and let us realise that vulnerable people die of flu every year.
I can remember the foot and mouth disease not that long ago whereupon Trevor Christian, James O'Brien, Nicola Sturgeon, Kevin Maguire, Alistair Campbell, Diane Abbott and Tony Blair caught it among many others, but unfortunately for them only the foot has cleared up.

[Oakeshott]

"I can remember the foot and mouth disease not that long ago whereupon Trevor Christian, James O'Brien, Nicola Sturgeon, Kevin Maguire, Alistair Campbell, Diane Abbott and Tony Blair caught it among many others, but unfortunately for them only the foot has cleared up."

As another 73 year old, spot on.