The Three Tick system

[Roberty]

When transfers are discussed on here TK is slated for the fact that we use statistics to asses players. He told everyone that we use what he refers to as a "three tick system" - a triumvirate of the Manager, Scouting Department and Analytical input to assess players before we sign them.

I get the impression that the statical input is frowned upon on here. It's seen as extraordinary and seems to be suggested, on here, that no other club does it.

Really?

Manure are being asked to pay Newcastle £10m to £20m to cut Dan Ashworth's contractual 2 year gardening leave short. Ashworth is a graduate of the Norwich Football Academy and had a short footballing career with Eastbourne Town and St Leonards before going to the USA as a coach with West Florida Fury and later returning to play for Wisbech Town.

It is suggested that Ashworth is eyeing Chelsea's Kyle Macaulay as his first Manchester United addition.

Not one of the Chelsea's many international players - nope -  he is their recruitment analyst.

What is clear from this is that at least three other clubs and most probably all - use Statistical Analysis as part of their recruitment process.

TK's mistake was to tell everyone that we use it.

[Snibbo]

No secret, no mistake. All the top clubs around the world use it as one way (not the only) of assessing players

[RaySmith]

There's history of this at Fulham with TK's pal, who was a stats 'expert,' kicked out for various misdemeanours -
sorry just going from memory here, can't be bothered to look up all the facts of this case -
then much criticism of TK and the club for their reliance on stats re signing new players, who often turned out to not that good, which TK and the club have been keen to refute,  arguing that we use the  3 tick method, not just stats in signing new players.

People have  argued on here that all clubs use stats in assessing new players these days, and, anyway, these criticisms of TK and the use of stats have died down since we've actually signed some decent players;
 but there's still criticism of TK and his role, but seems less vocal now, mainly, I think,  because we've been doing well, getting promotion and staying up, so far.

[The Rational Fan]

Very few people seem to realise that since we won the promotion playoffs in 2018, 17 other teams have spent more money on transfers than FFC. Yet, we are doing better than many of them in the league table as we are 10th last season and 12th this season .

So I can only conclude we have spent less and better than than numerous clubs.

Even the summer of 2018, where we spent £105m doesn't look that bad once you consider we got about £65m in players sales (mostly Mitro and Anguissa) plus while at the club Mitro and Bryan earned us at least £40m from winning the playoffs and automatic promotion.

Really when it comes to bad buys, the early purchase of MLM and Seri account for most of the recruitment mistake in that summer, but TK learnt his lesson not to buy the wrong players just to buy early.

In truth, it seems to me that TK is always compared to "the best recruiters and looks poor" rather being compared to "the worst recruiters where he would look good".

In truth, TK doesn't always spend perfectly, but he is great at getting the chairman to invest as required, which is something Rafa Benitez couldn't do with Mike Ashley. So yes in some sense, TK is a better DOF than Rafa Benitez.

[RaySmith]

Very few people seem to realise that since we won the promotion playoffs in 2018, 17 other teams have spent more money on transfers than FFC. Yet, we are doing better than many of them in the league table as we are 10th last season and 12th this season .

So I can only conclude we have spent less and better than than numerous clubs.

Even the summer of 2018, where we spent £105m doesn't look that bad once you consider we got about £65m in players sales (mostly Mitro and Anguissa) plus while at the club Mitro and Bryan earned us at least £40m from winning the playoffs and automatic promotion.

Really when it comes to bad buys, the early purchase of MLM and Seri account for most of the recruitment mistake in that summer, but TK learnt his lesson not to buy the wrong players just to buy early.

In truth, it seems to me that TK is always compared to "the best recruiters and looks poor" rather being compared to "the worst recruiters where he would look good".

In truth, TK doesn't always spend perfectly, but he is great at getting the chairman to invest as required, which is something Rafa Benitez couldn't do with Mike Ashley. So yes in some sense, TK is a better DOF than Rafa Benitez.

Agree that TK's record - though he's always said that it wasn't just his decisions but the 3 tick method, in signing new players-
 wasn't as bad as was claimed.

Some players, often signed under pressure to bring players in after promotion,  just didn't fit in to the  squad, but weren't necessarily bad players, and have been successful elsewhere, and there were successful signings, like Mitro being the main one, and recently we've made many very successful signings.

TK also has pretty direct access to the purse strings, as you say.

When  we do badly, TK seems to be scapegoat, but attracts less criticism when things are going well, as they are at present generally, imo.

[FFC In Oz]

If everything is working in perfect symphony then that's how things should be working.

The question mark is how involved TK still is with the process and whether or not he still has the decisive say.

Indications are that he seems to allow Marco a bit more authority and has taken a bit of a back step.

IMO we need a DOF living in London and working at the club FT, but I'm not sure who TK trusts to look after the analytics when he's looking after his wrestling or Jags.

[ianthailand]

Very few people seem to realise that since we won the promotion playoffs in 2018, 17 other teams have spent more money on transfers than FFC. Yet, we are doing better than many of them in the league table as we are 10th last season and 12th this season .

So I can only conclude we have spent less and better than than numerous clubs.

Even the summer of 2018, where we spent £105m doesn't look that bad once you consider we got about £65m in players sales (mostly Mitro and Anguissa) plus while at the club Mitro and Bryan earned us at least £40m from winning the playoffs and automatic promotion.

Really when it comes to bad buys, the early purchase of MLM and Seri account for most of the recruitment mistake in that summer, but TK learnt his lesson not to buy the wrong players just to buy early.

In truth, it seems to me that TK is always compared to "the best recruiters and looks poor" rather being compared to "the worst recruiters where he would look good".

In truth, TK doesn't always spend perfectly, but he is great at getting the chairman to invest as required, which is something Rafa Benitez couldn't do with Mike Ashley. So yes in some sense, TK is a better DOF than Rafa Benitez.

Agree that TK's record - though he's always said that it wasn't just his decisions but the 3 tick method, in signing new players-
 wasn't as bad as was claimed.

Some players, often signed under pressure to bring players in after promotion,  just didn't fit in to the  squad, but weren't necessarily bad players, and have been successful elsewhere, and there were successful signings, like Mitro being the main one, and recently we've made many very successful signings.

TK also has pretty direct access to the purse strings, as you say.

When  we do badly, TK seems to be scapegoat, but attracts less criticism when things are going well, as they are at present generally, imo.

we have spent less and better than numerous clubs. Or maybe we have a better manager?

[jarv]

What system did we use to get 2 injury prone players from Wolves? 

[Ruislip White]

The use of stats, three ticks or whatever any club calls it, is fundamentally sound and gives clubs a good tool beyond the limited number of performances watched or interpretation of scouts.

It only works well though when the manager has a degree of input and autonomy to recommend his own players or to say no to suggested players.

If feels like we have this at FFC.

[S.F.Sorrow]

All top clubs have obviously used stats for years. It's a matter of HOW the stats are used. If the person in charge of transfers is totally clueless we can end up buying players with impressive stats but unsuitable for the position he's supposed to play for us (like for example Anguissa). Or waste money on players with great stats but a worrying injury record (like we've done on multiple occasions under our current DoF/Head of Recruitment...).

I don't think it's a coincidence that our success in the transfer market in recent years has gone from abysmal during the years when TK seemed to be very actively involved at the club to quite good after daddy gave TK the Men in Tights to play with and TK now seems to spend most of his time in the US, even though he in theory also has at least three full time jobs at FFC... in addition to around ten "jobs" at Jacksonville Jaguars TrueMedia and AEW...

And just to be clear, I have nothing against our owner EXCEPT that he gave FAR too much control over the club to his clueless son. How a person with no experience in football whatsoever and several other "jobs" at the other side of the Atlantic can be appointed Director of Football, Head of Recruitment and Sporting Director is beyond me.

BTW, when I say "clueless" I obviously mean clueless with regards to running a football club. I'm sure Tony Khan is a reasonably intelligent person and a nice guy with many other qualities. But I think we're better off with him spending most of his time with the Men in Tights, and let other, more experienced people run FFC.

[H4usuallysitting]

Our current transfer signings have been mostly very, very good and at some very, very good prices.... Palhinha, Robinson, Tete, Tosin, Leno, Willian, Wilson, Pereira etc....even Metro turned a very healthy profit....no complaints from me - we've always had to play within FFP guideline's

[alfie]

I'm sure MS said he had the final say of who comes in. Can anyone confirm that?

[Angus Telford]

Not sure much of the TK criticism has ever concerned the use of stats. A litany of errors in the first six years of the Khans' ownership led us from the PL to the cusp of League One, with Twitter spats, Mad Magath, reported arrests at the training ground and so on making us the basket case of English football in the process. As observed above, things seem to have improved now he's stepped back from the role but we remain in the odd situation where we're somewhat rudderless without anyone having been appointed in his place, apparently unable to compete financially with our peers as a consequence of his past mistakes, and having a chairman and DOF who won't attend games for fear of abusive feedback. So the stats point is a bit of a red herring / straw man.

[H4usuallysitting]

Not sure much of the TK criticism has ever concerned the use of stats. A litany of errors in the first six years of the Khans' ownership led us from the PL to the cusp of League One, with Twitter spats, Mad Magath, reported arrests at the training ground and so on making us the basket case of English football in the process. As observed above, things seem to have improved now he's stepped back from the role but we remain in the odd situation where we're somewhat rudderless without anyone having been appointed in his place, apparently unable to compete financially with our peers as a consequence of his past mistakes, and having a chairman and DOF who won't attend games for fear of abusive feedback. So the stats point is a bit of a red herring / straw man.

Don't think they fear abuse attending Fulham game's......yep, early on they made mistakes....but the past few season's have been not only successful, but a joy to watch

[Angus Telford]

Don't think they fear abuse attending Fulham game's......yep, early on they made mistakes....but the past few season's have been not only successful, but a joy to watch

I was giving them the benefit of the doubt - the alternative is just that they can't be bothered to come, isn't it?

[Jims Dentist]

Our current transfer signings have been mostly very, very good and at some very, very good prices.... Palhinha, Robinson, Tete, Tosin, Leno, Willian, Wilson, Pereira etc....even Metro turned a very healthy profit....no complaints from me - we've always had to play within FFP guideline's

The above except Mitro were signed when MS was Manager.
He has identified his own targets mostly and has not let TK have so much say.

[Sting of the North]

How convenient as usual that posters just make up things to suit their argument. There is no proof that TK is much less involved or has less to say, and there is no proof that Silva has his own targets independent of scouting/stats. Maybe it is just a process that has matured along the way, and the cooperation between scouting, stats and manager works better now? Is that so inconceivable?

[Penfold]

Don't think they fear abuse attending Fulham game's......yep, early on they made mistakes....but the past few season's have been not only successful, but a joy to watch

I was giving them the benefit of the doubt - the alternative is just that they can't be bothered to come, isn't it?

To be fair to Shahid Khan, I think that there are quite a few owners who barely attend games. However, for a director of football to rarely be present is certainly not normal.

[btffc]

How convenient as usual that posters just make up things to suit their argument. There is no proof that TK is much less involved or has less to say, and there is no proof that Silva has his own targets independent of scouting/stats. Maybe it is just a process that has matured along the way, and the cooperation between scouting, stats and manager works better now? Is that so inconceivable?

While there is no proof, the heavy amount of Portuguese speakers in our targets and signings would suggest he does have a lot of influence on who we target. Believe Tony also said in an interview last year that Marco was extremely important and involved in our recruitment.

[Sting of the North]

How convenient as usual that posters just make up things to suit their argument. There is no proof that TK is much less involved or has less to say, and there is no proof that Silva has his own targets independent of scouting/stats. Maybe it is just a process that has matured along the way, and the cooperation between scouting, stats and manager works better now? Is that so inconceivable?

While there is no proof, the heavy amount of Portuguese speakers in our targets and signings would suggest he does have a lot of influence on who we target. Believe Tony also said in an interview last year that Marco was extremely important and involved in our recruitment.

Sure. But isn't that just as well proof that the overall process is working and that the various stakeholders can actually cooperate, rather than proof that TK is not involved? I am just questioning those that are always bending over backwards (like the very funny mr Beard) to put all credit on Silva and all complaints at TK's door.