Now that Fulham's season has ended, what should we be aiming for next season?

[ArcticOctopus]

Then it's about minor adjustments to the squad

Pepi in
CM in
JKA and Chuk in
Winger to replace Wilson unless he wants to re sign
van ewijk in Castagne out

Those as priority

If we have room to upgrade GK and maybe even CB go for it.

I would bite your hand off if offered that as our business this summer but even the priority 5 you've listed would be another net spend of £100m minimum and multiple big deals. Can you really see us doing all that?

Yeh I wouldn't be surprised if we could make that sort of room with FFP especially if a top ten finish.

30m Pepi
25m CM
22m Chuk
12m JKA
18m Van Ewijk
Wilson replacement - Loan move with option (so 5m loan fee?)

-£112m

Castagne out + 9m
Reed out + 5m
Amissah tribunal (+4m maybe? given multiple big clubs rumoured and as an England youth international)

Then, as ever,there might be some other Academy sales here and there:
Tanton
Dibley Dias
Sanderson
Araujo
Works
+ any of the other under-21s

Lets say you pick up 2m between any such moves of pure profit.

Total
+ £20m

That would be around £92m net spend.

However it's of course not the full story as up-front cost of those transfers wont be as high, about 12-20m of that will likely be in potential add-ons.

So up front more likely around 72-80m
plus the likelihood of us making at least 1 other of those deals loans with options, means even lower up front cost. (takes maybe 15m off the summer cost)

You could also look to cash in on the likes of Luc DF for £5-10m as a Canadian mens international at his age. Or move Diop on for £10-15m and replace with Luc (I wouldn't do this personally as think he's one of our best performing CBs at the moment) But let's say we sell one of them and count it as 7m for the sake of this convo.

So when you consider all that, perhaps those 5 main targets could be for more like 50-70m net up front cost this summer with the rest in possible addons or deferred fees, depending on which options we chose.

Seems there's a way it could be feasible to me, but admittedly I don't have the books so going purely off of guess work.

Over the past 6 years, we've averaged something like £30 million net spend with our peak yearly spend being around £50 million (Just looking simplistically at the values listed on transfermarket, so not taking into account deferred costs, etc). I don't know if we have a £92 million net spend in us. Historical precedent certainly suggests we don't.

[jayffc]

Then it's about minor adjustments to the squad

Pepi in
CM in
JKA and Chuk in
Winger to replace Wilson unless he wants to re sign
van ewijk in Castagne out

Those as priority

If we have room to upgrade GK and maybe even CB go for it.

I would bite your hand off if offered that as our business this summer but even the priority 5 you've listed would be another net spend of £100m minimum and multiple big deals. Can you really see us doing all that?

Yeh I wouldn't be surprised if we could make that sort of room with FFP especially if a top ten finish.

30m Pepi
25m CM
22m Chuk
12m JKA
18m Van Ewijk
Wilson replacement - Loan move with option (so 5m loan fee?)

-£112m

Castagne out + 9m
Reed out + 5m
Amissah tribunal (+4m maybe? given multiple big clubs rumoured and as an England youth international)

Then, as ever,there might be some other Academy sales here and there:
Tanton
Dibley Dias
Sanderson
Araujo
Works
+ any of the other under-21s

Lets say you pick up 2m between any such moves of pure profit.

Total
+ £20m

That would be around £92m net spend.

However it's of course not the full story as up-front cost of those transfers wont be as high, about 12-20m of that will likely be in potential add-ons.

So up front more likely around 72-80m
plus the likelihood of us making at least 1 other of those deals loans with options, means even lower up front cost. (takes maybe 15m off the summer cost)

You could also look to cash in on the likes of Luc DF for £5-10m as a Canadian mens international at his age. Or move Diop on for £10-15m and replace with Luc (I wouldn't do this personally as think he's one of our best performing CBs at the moment) But let's say we sell one of them and count it as 7m for the sake of this convo.

So when you consider all that, perhaps those 5 main targets could be for more like 50-70m net up front cost this summer with the rest in possible addons or deferred fees, depending on which options we chose.

Seems there's a way it could be feasible to me, but admittedly I don't have the books so going purely off of guess work.

Over the past 6 years, we've averaged something like £30 million net spend with our peak yearly spend being around £50 million. I don't know if we have a £92 million net spend in us. Historical precedent certainly suggests we don't.

Not sure what the Seri/Anguissa one was but yes generally we're fairly frugal and calculated.

As I say in the post, if you do all the chopping mentioned, the upfront net spend of the window can be much closer to the 50m range, with the rest being possible future add ons and loan deals with options later. Keep in mind Pepi was intended to be a January signing and that's 30m of it. There's no precedent for us spending 55m in January either, ever - but we were going to do it had PSV agreed.

Also no idea if the riverside is yet helping us in this regard as it's a bit early, but it was designed with the intention to help support squad acquisition and club finances long term too, so hopefully that does start to contribute even if only with a few extra million here and there.

[Angus Telford]

Over the past 6 years, we've averaged something like £30 million net spend with our peak yearly spend being around £50 million (Just looking simplistically at the values listed on transfermarket, so not taking into account deferred costs, etc). I don't know if we have a £92 million net spend in us. Historical precedent certainly suggests we don't.

Yep the only precedent would be 2018/19 and it would be broadly double what we've done in any other season.

For me it's not just the spend that's unrealistic but us negotiating and completing multiple big deals side-by-side - we generally move with the speed and agility of a rusty container ship.

Think more realistic is we get Chuk, Pepe and a winger on loan, with a CM signing falling through on the last day.

[ArcticOctopus]

Over the past 6 years, we've averaged something like £30 million net spend with our peak yearly spend being around £50 million (Just looking simplistically at the values listed on transfermarket, so not taking into account deferred costs, etc). I don't know if we have a £92 million net spend in us. Historical precedent certainly suggests we don't.

Yep the only precedent would be 2018/19 and it would be broadly double what we've done in any other season.

For me it's not just the spend that's unrealistic but us negotiating and completing multiple big deals side-by-side - we generally move with the speed and agility of a rusty container ship.

Think more realistic is we get Chuk, Pepe and a winger on loan, with a CM signing falling through on the last day.

Do you think we'll prioritize a new winger over a CM? Even if Wilson leaves, we seem pretty healthy on the wings. Especially if Chuk signs.

[jayffc]

Over the past 6 years, we've averaged something like £30 million net spend with our peak yearly spend being around £50 million (Just looking simplistically at the values listed on transfermarket, so not taking into account deferred costs, etc). I don't know if we have a £92 million net spend in us. Historical precedent certainly suggests we don't.

Yep the only precedent would be 2018/19 and it would be broadly double what we've done in any other season.

For me it's not just the spend that's unrealistic but us negotiating and completing multiple big deals side-by-side - we generally move with the speed and agility of a rusty container ship.

Think more realistic is we get Chuk, Pepe and a winger on loan, with a CM signing falling through on the last day.

Again though, if you include Chuk and JKA in this figure for this summer as you should, then you wouldn't include any potential loan + option deal as counting towards this summer.

So say the CM is a loan with option as well as the aformementioned wilson replacement - that's that 25m also off of the original number I mentioned.

Then if you consider Pepi was intended to be bought last summer, then January that money was already accounted for as Rauls long term replacement, we would have spent it the last 2 windows had PSV sanctioned the move in time.

Now given you've said ya more sceptical about fulhams ability to negotiate multiple big deals than finance numbers themselves:

Pepi is currently looking almost done by all accounts. Not alot of negotiation there needed seemingly, and allegedly it's expected to be tied up before the summer although unlikely to be announced till then.
Chuk and JKA there is no negotiation needed, those deals are pre agreed if we want to trigger them.

So assuming that's the case... you're left with only 3 deals to negotiate in the summer for the list of 6 I mentioned. And whilst we certainly take our time, and last year was a quieter one with only 4 signings in the end...

Here's how many total players we've signed in the summer window the last decade:
2016   8
2017   6
2018   12
2019   8
2020   7
2021   7
2022   6
2023   7
2024   7
2025   4

6 as you can see is below average for us in the summer.

So I'd say history suggests we're probably capable of negotiating signing 3 players on top of what's mostly lined up already.

Those being - CM (do we go back from Atta or another we've already negotiated with?)
Wilson replacement - can be a loan deal think this one will be later in window for sure
RB - For me go for Ewijk. But we've allegedly bid on Celik from Roma before (not overly excited personally of that move - though he's probably having his best season at roma this year, good defensively, offers little in attack)

[Andrew]

Seeing as our seasons goals were obviously met last Sunday, will the club aim higher next season or just repeat this season again, get to 40 points, job done. 

This is a brilliant question and one for the owner to answer. In the end he needs to set the standard we are supposed to be aiming at. Personally I have no idea at all what he wants, whether it is just survival/mid table mediocrity OR whether he has any ambition at all to kick on. I suspect it is the former because we have had two chances to really go for a higher placing but IMO never really made the right conditions for that to happen.

If it is to be mid table mediocrity, I would be able to cope with that, but I would like to know what the ambition actually is. I don't think that is to much to ask.

[jayffc]

Seeing as our seasons goals were obviously met last Sunday, will the club aim higher next season or just repeat this season again, get to 40 points, job done. 

This is a brilliant question and one for the owner to answer. In the end he needs to set the standard we are supposed to be aiming at. Personally I have no idea at all what he wants, whether it is just survival/mid table mediocrity OR whether he has any ambition at all to kick on. I suspect it is the former because we have had two chances to really go for a higher placing but IMO never really made the right conditions for that to happen.

If it is to be mid table mediocrity, I would be able to cope with that, but I would like to know what the ambition actually is. I don't think that is to much to ask.

We've had this conversation before

Shahid has said explicitly that their aim is to make Fulham a financially sustainable premier league club without solely depending on one man's wallet alone, and to try and get European football back at Fulham, as well as Marco and the club saying on several occasions the aim is that and/or to win something meaningful (a cup) 

We had a whole thread with the direct quotes and interviews from Shahid, Tony , Marco and players. It's really not their fault at this point if people don't read the content they put out and interviews they partake in, where they state what their ambitions are clearly.

[jayffc]

in case it was missed somehow
from 4 months ago.

start at 15mins in for fulham
After saying the riverside is all explicilty part of helping fund squad aquisition he continues:
'We're generating that revenue and we can invest in the squad and the next step is for us to be challenging for Europe... you have to be ambitious or go home"

https://youtu.be/khqiEK3SF3A?si=pLOSDihUZRUNdxax&t=900 for link to the moment he discusses this

[Angus Telford]

We were in for Pepi prior to this January and it still wasn't enough to get a deal done in Jan so I wouldn't assume we're all set to sign him this summer. Plenty of time for other clubs to come in, or the selling club or his agent to move the goalposts. Same goes for Chuk, and I wouldn't count a perm move for him as a 2025 signing when for all legal, financial and administrative purposes I'll be a 2026 transaction. Anyway time will tell.

[jayffc]

We were in for Pepi prior to this January and it still wasn't enough to get a deal done in Jan so I wouldn't assume we're all set to sign him this summer. Plenty of time for other clubs to come in, or the selling club or his agent to move the goalposts. Same goes for Chuk, and I wouldn't count a perm move for him as a 2025 signing when for all legal, financial and administrative purposes I'll be a 2026 transaction. Anyway time will tell.

Correct we agree that chuk should be a 2026 signing. It was a point about how making 2 of my list loans with options to permanent would mean their fees weren't paid this summer and would count towards 2027.

But there are no moving goalposts with chuk... we have a pre agreed option signed with him and club for his ongoing contract should we trigger our option. That's what options are for, my understanding is if we trigger that option it's already agreed, no need or room for negotiation unless we decide for some reason we don't want to pay the same wages we agreed to already and try to renegotiate fir some reason. Same for JKA

And sure, it's possible Pepi doesn't sign, but unlike pre January, we did have a bid accepted already,and all reports from Fabrizio and those with supposed club contacts are saying it looks very likely to be done before summer and that the player wants the move. Absolutely may not materialise though of course. Certainly nothings done till it's done

But again, if even Pepi didn't happen ...4 extra signings to negotiate when our average is around 7 the last decade doesn't seem implausible, we even managed that last year in a quieter summer for us

[Angus Telford]

But there are no moving goalposts with chuk... we have a pre agreed option signed with him and club for his ongoing contract should we trigger our option. That's what options are for, my understanding is if we trigger that option it's already agreed, no need or room for negotiation unless we decide for some reason we don't want to pay the same wages we agreed to already and try to renegotiate fir some reason. Same for JKA

Our option will be an agreed price with Milan. We'll still need to negotiate terms with the player. His current deal is with them, not us. Plus another club could of course match our price. The deal will probably get done if we really want it but plenty of work to be done still.

I mean, if you're right, we should see Chuk and Pepi announced pretty much on day 1 of the window - is that actually what you're suggesting will happen? For contrast, the perm deal for Mitrovic didn't happen until 9 days before the window closed.

[jayffc]

But there are no moving goalposts with chuk... we have a pre agreed option signed with him and club for his ongoing contract should we trigger our option. That's what options are for, my understanding is if we trigger that option it's already agreed, no need or room for negotiation unless we decide for some reason we don't want to pay the same wages we agreed to already and try to renegotiate fir some reason. Same for JKA

Our option will be an agreed price with Milan. We'll still need to negotiate terms with the player. His current deal is with them, not us. Plus another club could of course match our price. The deal will probably get done if we really want it but plenty of work to be done still.

I mean, if you're right, we should see Chuk and Pepi announced pretty much on day 1 of the window - is that actually what you're suggesting will happen? For contrast, the perm deal for Mitrovic didn't happen until 9 days before the window closed.

Another club can't match our price with Milan, that's not, as far as I'm aware, how options work at all. If we trigger our option it doesn't matter what anyone else wants to offer, they could want to offer 100m... But it doesn't matter, the pre agreed deal is binding and already signed, should we trigger our option before it's deadline he can't be bought by someone else without us  first turning down our option to buy him.

My understanding was we don't need to negotiate with the player as they already agreed to the ongoing contract at the point of signing the initial deal, should we trigger it. Otherwise options would be way more risky than they are. Could be wrong of course but that was my understanding when I read about it last. Though it may not be the same for every deal too.

No idea when the date for triggering chuks option is though. Could be it's immediately at end of loan ,could be it's mid window, I wouldn't know.

I've no idea when they'd be announced officially, only reporting that Fabrizio is saying clubs are close to deal to sign pepi before the summer and that the players also pushing for it before the world cup. And thats been consistently reaffirmed by the guy who runs FFN who allegedly has contact with TK and has been heavily hinting that's the expectation for a while.
Again,doesn't mean it materialises, just the current direction of the wind as I'm receiving it.

As for Mitro , we didn't have an option to buy when we loaned him late...so that's presumably why he wasn't signed till later.

[jayffc]

@Angus Telford
Asked chatgpt for what that's worth:

"In most modern loan deals with an option to buy, the player's future contract terms are usually agreed in advance. Otherwise the option wouldn't be very meaningful.
There are essentially two structures used in football:
1️⃣ Fully Pre-Agreed Option (Most Common)
When the loan is signed, three things are already agreed:
Transfer fee if the option is triggered
Length of contract (e.g., 4 or 5 years)
Player salary and bonuses
So if the club triggers the option:
The transfer automatically becomes permanent
The player is contractually bound to sign the pre-agreed contract
There is no further negotiation needed
This is why clubs like options — it gives them certainty."

 2. "Option Subject to Personal Terms" (Less Common)
Sometimes the loan agreement only fixes:
The transfer fee
But personal terms are not agreed yet.
In that case:
The club can trigger the option
But the player still has to negotiate his contract
So:
The player can refuse to sign
The move collapses unless new terms are agreed
This version is rarer because it weakens the purpose of the option.


....

Tldr; it's likely we have already agreed terms with chukwueze regarding ongoing contract, as most modern contracts pre agree the ongoing contract terms prior to agreeing the loan deal ... Doesn't mean it happens, or this is definitely the case, I'm not certain at all, just passing that on

[The Rational Fan]

If we finish 14th this season, then we can afford the 15th-12th best squad and with good management finish 10th-8th next season.

With a little effort we can finish 8th this season, giving us the money for the 11th-8th best squad and a chance to get 6th next season.

[Angus Telford]

@jayffc let's have a wager.

I'll wager that firstly, if we sign Chukuweze and Pepe, we won't get both done in time for the start of pre-season, secondly we won't have a net spend over say £70m, and thirdly we won't sign more than two players for >£20m each.

Something to spice up your sunmer thread and if I'm wrong we'll have the silver lining of a very promising 26/27.

[EN1 FFC]

A new manager and a clear out

It's hard to tell if you're joking... you reckon we need to replace the squad as well?

Reed, TC, Muniz, Raul, Leno, Castagne for me need to go for various reasons

Really hope someone somewhere gives us some money for Andersen as well. He's far too slow and gets caught out costing us every time he plays.

I have a feeling that because of the wages we offered Andersen when he signed for us on a long contract, that he'll be difficult to move, but I've been wondering if a DM role would suit him better if Lukic, Reed or Berge move on.
It would seem that Robinson may be sold so we have to tie Sessegnon down on a new contract as we've struggle in the past to get in Left back cover.

[WindyCity]

Personally I have no idea at all what he wants, whether it is just survival/mid table mediocrity OR whether he has any ambition at all to kick on. If it is to be mid table mediocrity, I would be able to cope with that, but I would like to know what the ambition actually is.

In my view, mid table is NOT mediocre.  Not in this league.  This is a tough friggin league.  And for a relatively small/mid size club like FFC finishing mid table is, in my view, a pretty solid accomplishment.  To be honest, finishing mid table is absolutely something I can live with.  Maybe a couple of nice results v top clubs during a given season, ok by me.  Sure, we all would like to see our favorite team kick on and produce better results and up the table.  There is no question in my mind that MS and the players are all trying their best to move as high up the table as possible.  And, of course, as followers of this fabled club it can be very frustrating when we witness poor results in games where there are much higher expectations.  Mid table is great, it is not mediocre or to be frowned upon......

[DadCreature]

It is devastatingly hard to move up from mid-table - takes lightening in a bottle in terms of scouting finds/academy product.  And then they will leave to go play CL with teams that consistently make it.   Building slow over time is a good call.  I agree this season isn't technically over, but I also don't think we are going to overcome the loss of three pts vs. WHU.  Those are must-wins for teams that want to finish in the top third.

So, how do we get there?  The problem is obvious - Fulham have a history these past few years of a reasonable number of surprise results against top sides and an unacceptable number of losses/near-losses to bottom feeders.  Thus we can conclude that our team is best with space in front of it and cannot break down a bunker.  Top teams play us straight up and leave space.  Bottom feeders don't.  We need to build into the squad players who can make the clever run, clever pass, consistent finish to beat a bunkering side.

My (uninformed) opinion is that (1) the team very much hopes King develops into just such a controlling CAM and (2) this is why they want Pepi.   For all the defensive inadequacies of the Dutch league, he is facing more packed teams on a weekly basis and he finishes a very high percentage of the shots that he should finish.  He gets in good position and doesn't seem to screw it up very often.  The hope will be that he can still get into good position here and finish a high % of the much lower number of chances he will get.

I'd say we need another CDM who can cover the field as almost a solo 6 but still make reasonable forward passes, so that we can push another CM up into the attack more. 

Other thoughts?

[demeant0r]

So, looks like none of the English teams are doing well in the CL with Arsenal drawing today and Chelsea currently drawing and City 2-0 down as well as losses for Spurs and Liverpool and a Newcastle draw. That surely has to be a blow to the PL's chances of having 8th as a European spot which makes Sunday's loss vs Southampton even more infuriating.

We could have as few as 1-2 English teams in the quarter final of the CL.

[HobGoblin]

Personally I have no idea at all what he wants, whether it is just survival/mid table mediocrity OR whether he has any ambition at all to kick on. If it is to be mid table mediocrity, I would be able to cope with that, but I would like to know what the ambition actually is.

In my view, mid table is NOT mediocre.  Not in this league.  This is a tough friggin league.  And for a relatively small/mid size club like FFC finishing mid table is, in my view, a pretty solid accomplishment.  To be honest, finishing mid table is absolutely something I can live with.  Maybe a couple of nice results v top clubs during a given season, ok by me.  Sure, we all would like to see our favorite team kick on and produce better results and up the table.  There is no question in my mind that MS and the players are all trying their best to move as high up the table as possible.  And, of course, as followers of this fabled club it can be very frustrating when we witness poor results in games where there are much higher expectations.  Mid table is great, it is not mediocre or to be frowned upon......

Nothing like some ambition...