Leno's decline

[C Block]

3 Pages of people moaning about Bernd Leno, pound for pound one of the best signings our club has ever made,
And certainly the least of our problems, I'm sure some of you would love to see the ball go through his legs on Monday just so you can tell us all "told you so"
If any of you contributed to this thread in a negative way, please do yourself a favour and watch the Brentford v Spurs game, all I'll say is thank God we've got Leno and not Kinsky, now that's a keeper that deserves 3 pages on a forum.

What are you on about? Aren't we allowed to discuss a player that is letting us down in quite a few of our opinions (and backed up by stats)?
I'd be gutted if that happens on Monday and hope he delivers and carries on his decent pre season form. I don't want to see him being the 18th best keeper in terms of saves made again.

How many games ago was it that he made the save of the season at Brentford to deny them a place in Europe,  I'd rather remember that than look at a page of stats,
Would you rather have Kinsky ?

[Jim©]

3 Pages of people moaning about Bernd Leno, pound for pound one of the best signings our club has ever made,
And certainly the least of our problems, I'm sure some of you would love to see the ball go through his legs on Monday just so you can tell us all "told you so"
If any of you contributed to this thread in a negative way, please do yourself a favour and watch the Brentford v Spurs game, all I'll say is thank God we've got Leno and not Kinsky, now that's a keeper that deserves 3 pages on a forum.

What are you on about? Aren't we allowed to discuss a player that is letting us down in quite a few of our opinions (and backed up by stats)?
I'd be gutted if that happens on Monday and hope he delivers and carries on his decent pre season form. I don't want to see him being the 18th best keeper in terms of saves made again.

How many games ago was it that he made the save of the season at Brentford to deny them a place in Europe,  I'd rather remember that than look at a page of stats,
Would you rather have Kinsky ?

Kinsky has nothing to do with it, I'm glad he's not our keeper. I mentioned his save at Brentford, but there were many times he cost us last season and the one before. He's good but not good enough imo. Hope he proves me wrong.

[Twig]

You clearly don't understand how the stats being discussed here work.

I understand them perfectly well. Apologies, it's just that I don't blindly believe them.

You don't believe the stats? That is to say you think they are untrue?

Heresy, I know. It's 1984 all over again. Cheers!

Perhaps I misunderstood you. The stats are just data so not to believe them literally means you think they have been constructed incorrectly (whether intentionally or through human error).  That's what I found odd.  If however you meant to say that you don't subscribe to the conclusions some of us are drawing from the facts then fair enough. I don't agree but you're fully entitled to that view.

[Twig]

3 Pages of people moaning about Bernd Leno, pound for pound one of the best signings our club has ever made,
And certainly the least of our problems, I'm sure some of you would love to see the ball go through his legs on Monday just so you can tell us all "told you so"
If any of you contributed to this thread in a negative way, please do yourself a favour and watch the Brentford v Spurs game, all I'll say is thank God we've got Leno and not Kinsky, now that's a keeper that deserves 3 pages on a forum.

What are you on about? Aren't we allowed to discuss a player that is letting us down in quite a few of our opinions (and backed up by stats)?
I'd be gutted if that happens on Monday and hope he delivers and carries on his decent pre season form. I don't want to see him being the 18th best keeper in terms of saves made again.

How many games ago was it that he made the save of the season at Brentford to deny them a place in Europe,  I'd rather remember that than look at a page of stats,
Would you rather have Kinsky ?

Sorry but one excellent save does nothing to change the trend in his overall performance, which is downwards. As to his being the least of our problems I vehemently disagree. He's ageing and whether you like it or not his stats are getting progressively worse.
I would like to see us bring in the future new number one. Whether that person spends some time as Leno's understudy or steps up straight away I don't mind, but I think we need to secure the future of such an important role.
And no, I most definitely do not want to see one go through his legs tomorrow. That was an infantile and completely uncalled for jibe. This sort of comment that seeks to denigrate other supporters opinions is just the sort of nonsense that drives away debate on this forum. In my opinion the mods should be coming down hard on this sort of unpleasantness.

[KentFulham]

Agree with the stats talk of this thread, it is undeniably true that Leno has declined.

It is also true we have to backup currently or what appears to be a transition plan.

Historically we have usually attracted a good GK, often punching above our weight.

But given being so close but some could argue so far from a Euro spot, it feels like this is a position in need of an upgrade to gain a handful of points that could be the diff

[C Block]

Will any of you moaners cut him any slack tomorrow night for the fact that he will be playing behind a patched up, substandard centre half pairing?
Imagine if he had Gabriel and Saliba playing in front of him, what a difference that would make to his "stats" that you all obsess over,
As things stand this morning our back 4 is weaker than last seasons, and to me that's unacceptable,
Maybe some of you should take a moment to think about that.

[KentFulham]

Will any of you moaners cut him any slack tomorrow night for the fact that he will be playing behind a patched up, substandard centre half pairing?
Imagine if he had Gabriel and Saliba playing in front of him, what a difference that would make to his "stats" that you all obsess over,
As things stand this morning our back 4 is weaker than last seasons, and to me that's unacceptable,
Maybe some of you should take a moment to think about that.

He did have that kind of standard at Arsenal......They still dropped and sold him

Agree though the back 4 is weaker than ever and it is unacceptable, however Many beilive Anderson is the answer and Diop was not as good

[Chi_FFC]

Imagine if he had Gabriel and Saliba playing in front of him, what a difference that would make to his "stats" that you all obsess over

There's a reason some of us keep saying that folks don't understand the stats being discussed in this thread and it's because of comments just like this. Again, the advanced shot stopping stats control for the quality of defense in front of the GK. If Leno had Gabriel and Saliba in front of him last season he'd still have been among the worst shot stoppers in the league! I'll say it again, Leno's best season BY FAR in the advanced shot stopping stats was in 22-23. He was first or second in the league depending on which you looked at. And that season the defense in front of him was by far the worst we've had since being back up in the PL (in terms of xGA and shots on targets against, etc.). 

[Twig]

Imagine if he had Gabriel and Saliba playing in front of him, what a difference that would make to his "stats" that you all obsess over

There's a reason some of us keep saying that folks don't understand the stats being discussed in this thread and it's because of comments just like this. Again, the advanced shot stopping stats control for the quality of defense in front of the GK. If Leno had Gabriel and Saliba in front of him last season he'd still have been among the worst shot stoppers in the league! I'll say it again, Leno's best season BY FAR in the advanced shot stopping stats was in 22-23. He was first or second in the league depending on which you looked at. And that season the defense in front of him was by far the worst we've had since being back up in the PL (in terms of xGA and shots on targets against, etc.). 

I don't know why but it seems there are folks on here who just don't want to understand. Almost some kind of flat earth mentality. All they do is call us moaners and repeat their failure to undetsand a simpe concept.

To be clear; I am absolutely not moaning, I do am not a Leno hater, in fact I have previously been very impressed by him. I simply pay attention to the stats (as well as the evidence of my eyes) which have convinced me that he is on the decline and that we should be planning to replace him. I fully respect that others may have a different opinion, I just don't get why they need to spout petty insults to defend their argument.

[C Block]

It's like banging your head against a brick wall on here at times,
I guess the same people now running Leno down are the same people that were constantly running Dan Burn and Andreas Pereira down and we know how that turned out.

[Twig]

It's like banging your head against a brick wall on here at times,
I guess the same people now running Leno down are the same people that were constantly running Dan Burn and Andreas Pereira down and we know how that turned out.

Nobody is "running him down". We are simply pointing out that his stats have become unfavourable. You cannot argue that this is a fact. If you choose to take the view that the stats don't tell the story then fine, I totally respect that opinion. Quite why you can't show the good grace to respect the opposite view is quite beyond me.

[Neutral Zone Ultra]

It's like banging your head against a brick wall on here at times,
I guess the same people now running Leno down are the same people that were constantly running Dan Burn and Andreas Pereira down and we know how that turned out.

Nobody is "running him down". We are simply pointing out that his stats have become unfavourable. You cannot argue that this is a fact. If you choose to take the view that the stats don't tell the story then fine, I totally respect that opinion. Quite why you can't show the good grace to respect the opposite view is quite beyond me.

This, honestly some people on this forum are so allergic to debate that it's beyond trying to do so. God forbid we don't infinitely defend men who are paid millions of pounds a year and never hold them to account at all.

[alfie]

Imagine if he had Gabriel and Saliba playing in front of him, what a difference that would make to his "stats" that you all obsess over

There's a reason some of us keep saying that folks don't understand the stats being discussed in this thread and it's because of comments just like this. Again, the advanced shot stopping stats control for the quality of defense in front of the GK. If Leno had Gabriel and Saliba in front of him last season he'd still have been among the worst shot stoppers in the league! I'll say it again, Leno's best season BY FAR in the advanced shot stopping stats was in 22-23. He was first or second in the league depending on which you looked at. And that season the defense in front of him was by far the worst we've had since being back up in the PL (in terms of xGA and shots on targets against, etc.). 

I don't know why but it seems there are folks on here who just don't want to understand. Almost some kind of flat earth mentality. All they do is call us moaners and repeat their failure to undetsand a simpe concept.

To be clear; I am absolutely not moaning, I do am not a Leno hater, in fact I have previously been very impressed by him. I simply pay attention to the stats (as well as the evidence of my eyes) which have convinced me that he is on the decline and that we should be planning to replace him. I fully respect that others may have a different opinion, I just don't get why they need to spout petty insults to defend their argument.

Once again I say that stats do not show the full story as to why or how the ball goes in, it just shows that the ball went past the keeper, e.g. a shot comes in the keeper has it fully covered but a defender sticks out a leg and deflects it away from the keeper who can do nothing about it, but the stats still show it went past the keeper. That is my only objection in overly relying on stats.

In saying that of course it is inevitable that all players will show a decline in performance as they get older, and we should be looking to improve.

[Twig]

Imagine if he had Gabriel and Saliba playing in front of him, what a difference that would make to his "stats" that you all obsess over

There's a reason some of us keep saying that folks don't understand the stats being discussed in this thread and it's because of comments just like this. Again, the advanced shot stopping stats control for the quality of defense in front of the GK. If Leno had Gabriel and Saliba in front of him last season he'd still have been among the worst shot stoppers in the league! I'll say it again, Leno's best season BY FAR in the advanced shot stopping stats was in 22-23. He was first or second in the league depending on which you looked at. And that season the defense in front of him was by far the worst we've had since being back up in the PL (in terms of xGA and shots on targets against, etc.). 

I don't know why but it seems there are folks on here who just don't want to understand. Almost some kind of flat earth mentality. All they do is call us moaners and repeat their failure to undetsand a simpe concept.

To be clear; I am absolutely not moaning, I do am not a Leno hater, in fact I have previously been very impressed by him. I simply pay attention to the stats (as well as the evidence of my eyes) which have convinced me that he is on the decline and that we should be planning to replace him. I fully respect that others may have a different opinion, I just don't get why they need to spout petty insults to defend their argument.

Once again I say that stats do not show the full story as to why or how the ball goes in, it just shows that the ball went past the keeper, e.g. a shot comes in the keeper has it fully covered but a defender sticks out a leg and deflects it away from the keeper who can do nothing about it, but the stats still show it went past the keeper. That is my only objection in overly relying on stats.

In saying that of course it is inevitable that all players will show a decline in performance as they get older, and we should be looking to improve.

Alfie, I'm sorry but the stats do most definitely not just show that the ball went past the keeper, absolutely not. Frankly that would be no better than goals conceded and would be utterly useless.  The advanced stats take into account t several aspects including tje quality and nature of the defending in front of the keeper. So to answer your specific example, if the a defender (or any other player) were to deflect the ball away from the keeper then that would be explicitly reflected in the keeper's stats.

That said of course I agree with you that the eye test is also important, I guess I just fail to understand why several on here (all pro Leno) seem to be incapable or unwilling to understand how meaningful modern performance stats are.

[Neutral Zone Ultra]

Imagine if he had Gabriel and Saliba playing in front of him, what a difference that would make to his "stats" that you all obsess over

There's a reason some of us keep saying that folks don't understand the stats being discussed in this thread and it's because of comments just like this. Again, the advanced shot stopping stats control for the quality of defense in front of the GK. If Leno had Gabriel and Saliba in front of him last season he'd still have been among the worst shot stoppers in the league! I'll say it again, Leno's best season BY FAR in the advanced shot stopping stats was in 22-23. He was first or second in the league depending on which you looked at. And that season the defense in front of him was by far the worst we've had since being back up in the PL (in terms of xGA and shots on targets against, etc.). 

I don't know why but it seems there are folks on here who just don't want to understand. Almost some kind of flat earth mentality. All they do is call us moaners and repeat their failure to undetsand a simpe concept.

To be clear; I am absolutely not moaning, I do am not a Leno hater, in fact I have previously been very impressed by him. I simply pay attention to the stats (as well as the evidence of my eyes) which have convinced me that he is on the decline and that we should be planning to replace him. I fully respect that others may have a different opinion, I just don't get why they need to spout petty insults to defend their argument.

Once again I say that stats do not show the full story as to why or how the ball goes in, it just shows that the ball went past the keeper, e.g. a shot comes in the keeper has it fully covered but a defender sticks out a leg and deflects it away from the keeper who can do nothing about it, but the stats still show it went past the keeper. That is my only objection in overly relying on stats.

In saying that of course it is inevitable that all players will show a decline in performance as they get older, and we should be looking to improve.

Alfie, I'm sorry but the stats do most definitely not just show that the ball went past the keeper, absolutely not. Frankly that would be no better than goals conceded and would be utterly useless.  The advanced stats take into account t several aspects including tje quality and nature of the defending in front of the keeper. So to answer your specific example, if the a defender (or any other player) were to deflect the ball away from the keeper then that would be explicitly reflected in the keeper's stats.

That said of course I agree with you that the eye test is also important, I guess I just fail to understand why several on here (all pro Leno) seem to be incapable or unwilling to understand how meaningful modern performance stats are.

Even if you choose to rely solely on the eye test, I'm not sure how people are looking at his performances last season and the one before and thinking that they've been top quality (and worth the £130k a week)? I can recall being very frustrated with him letting in soft goals being there in person at these matches.

[WindyCity]

Even if you choose to rely solely on the eye test, I'm not sure how people are looking at his performances last season and the one before and thinking that they've been top quality (and worth the £130k a week)? I can recall being very frustrated with him letting in soft goals being there in person at these matches.

Copy that.  Past two seasons Leno has cost the team points.  Very frustrating.  As a fan, I am hoping he does well in every game of course, but he needs to up his game to a higher level.  Fingers crossed he can improve his game.

[alfie]

Imagine if he had Gabriel and Saliba playing in front of him, what a difference that would make to his "stats" that you all obsess over

There's a reason some of us keep saying that folks don't understand the stats being discussed in this thread and it's because of comments just like this. Again, the advanced shot stopping stats control for the quality of defense in front of the GK. If Leno had Gabriel and Saliba in front of him last season he'd still have been among the worst shot stoppers in the league! I'll say it again, Leno's best season BY FAR in the advanced shot stopping stats was in 22-23. He was first or second in the league depending on which you looked at. And that season the defense in front of him was by far the worst we've had since being back up in the PL (in terms of xGA and shots on targets against, etc.). 

I don't know why but it seems there are folks on here who just don't want to understand. Almost some kind of flat earth mentality. All they do is call us moaners and repeat their failure to undetsand a simpe concept.

To be clear; I am absolutely not moaning, I do am not a Leno hater, in fact I have previously been very impressed by him. I simply pay attention to the stats (as well as the evidence of my eyes) which have convinced me that he is on the decline and that we should be planning to replace him. I fully respect that others may have a different opinion, I just don't get why they need to spout petty insults to defend their argument.

Once again I say that stats do not show the full story as to why or how the ball goes in, it just shows that the ball went past the keeper, e.g. a shot comes in the keeper has it fully covered but a defender sticks out a leg and deflects it away from the keeper who can do nothing about it, but the stats still show it went past the keeper. That is my only objection in overly relying on stats.

In saying that of course it is inevitable that all players will show a decline in performance as they get older, and we should be looking to improve.

Alfie, I'm sorry but the stats do most definitely not just show that the ball went past the keeper, absolutely not. Frankly that would be no better than goals conceded and would be utterly useless.  The advanced stats take into account t several aspects including tje quality and nature of the defending in front of the keeper. So to answer your specific example, if the a defender (or any other player) were to deflect the ball away from the keeper then that would be explicitly reflected in the keeper's stats.

That said of course I agree with you that the eye test is also important, I guess I just fail to understand why several on here (all pro Leno) seem to be incapable or unwilling to understand how meaningful modern performance stats are.

I am now curious to look at his stats and see for myself and see what you are saying, I can't seem to find them, can you please enlighten me ?

[Chi_FFC]

Not a promising start to the new season for Bernd. I'm not going to post the advanced stopping numbers (as for me it's a stat that really doesn't start meaning much until you have a significant sample size) but they obviously weren't good today.

[Super Mick]

Palmer nutmegged him ffs

[Chi_FFC]

Palmer nutmegged him

For me that wasn't the only issue with Leno tonight. I also didn't like his decision to come out of the goal on the second. But back to the third goal you reference, as I said in the match thread it wasn't a howler, but it is one I'd like to see him save more often than not. And that is frankly the issue I've had with him over the past few years...and the issue that is illustrated clearly in the shot stopping stats that have been discussed in great detail here...he simply isn't saving enough savable shots. Look, it's just one match and I hope things improve but it was an inauspicious start considering his struggles the past few seasons.