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Summer Transfer Gossip.

Started by Mince n Tatties, April 28, 2019, 08:26:09 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

Statto

#2120
Quote from: simplyfulham on August 01, 2019, 01:28:25 PM
Quote from: Statto on August 01, 2019, 01:10:53 PM
Quote from: simplyfulham on August 01, 2019, 01:01:17 PM
Quote from: Facts Not Fiction on August 01, 2019, 11:40:28 AM
Quote from: Chutney on August 01, 2019, 11:23:14 AM
Quote from: Facts Not Fiction on August 01, 2019, 08:49:12 AM
Quote from: grandad on July 31, 2019, 11:05:38 PM
Etheridge made quite a few cock ups last season. Betts is much better.

In no world is Bettinelli better than Etheridge.

Bettinelli has a better save %, better distribution figures and has conceded fewer goals.

Strange that playing less games means you concede less. However, at PL level, Bettinelli conceded 20 in 7, rate of just under 3 a game. Etheridge 69 in 38, under 2 a game.

Etheridge's distribution is awful, but so is Bettinelli's.

Etheridge faced 210 shots on target last season, Bettinelli 40. Etheridge conceded 69, Bettinelli 20. Etheridge hence has a better save % of 67% to 50%.

Guess the defence they play behind doesn't count then hey?  :doh:

Well, not in relation to distribution or save %

Although FWIW I still wouldn't swap Betts for Etheridge.

Save % of what though?

If I save 90% of shots from 45 yards am I better keeper than you if you save 10% of shots from 6 yards.

If you have a better defence infront of you restricting chances to shots that are less likely to be dangerous then yes I'd say it makes a big difference.

IMO that reasoning is very questionable. You're assuming that when teams can't easily penetrate the Cardiff defence, they just give up and shoot aimlessly from 20 or 30 yrds out. Not sure it works like that. Also the problem with our "defence" is commonly blamed on players in midfield and attack not doing their defensive duties further up the field - doesn't that mean the difference between us and Cardiff was that we were giving the opposition more space in areas 20 or 30 yrds (or more) out? We weren't necessarily worse in and around the 6-yard box. 

In any case, the difference in Betts' and Etheridge's respective save percentages is greater than the difference between the quality of the defences in front of them. Cardiff were almost as crap as us and conceded 69 goals to our 81. Betts would need a save rate of about 57% to be as good as Etheridge allowing for how much better their defence was.

Arthur

Quote from: grandad on August 01, 2019, 01:18:48 PM
Quote from: Arthur on August 01, 2019, 10:39:35 AM
Quote from: grandad on August 01, 2019, 10:13:20 AM
I would buy him in an instant, more to stop other teams getting a proven goal scorer.

But you've been critical in the past of bigger clubs that stockpile players (albeit mostly emerging talents) and then loan them abroad or to lower leagues seemingly as a means of preventing other P.L. clubs from utilising their talent.

Would I be right in saying this is a case of your having one rule for us and another for them?
We are not a big club, we need cover for Mitro, one player is not stockpiling, option to play 4-4-2 or 4-3-3.

I would say that any club that buys a player 'to stop other teams' getting him (as you originally said) is, in football terms, guilty of stockpiling.

If (as it seems) you've changed your mind about the reason for wanting him, I shall agree and say that I, too - in an ideal scenario - would ike our attacking options to include Gayle. On the assumption, however, that £15M may be all that we can afford to still spend in this window, I would prefer that we strengthened in other positions.

We Are Premier League

No one appears to like Christie as fullback, what if he could provide depth in CM instead...he was MOTM as part of a midffield trio for Ireland late last year...

https://www.the42.ie/martin-oneill-on-cyrus-christie-4285567-Oct2018/

086.gif


Tabby

Quote from: fulhamben on August 01, 2019, 12:53:08 PM
Quote from: BernieBoy on August 01, 2019, 12:46:31 PM
Quote from: JimOG on August 01, 2019, 10:28:40 AM
Gayle + Mitro would have been a good option but Cav + Mitro + Knockaert is so much better. We need to spend that money on Besic + Hector and then I'd be very confident of promotion

+1
have we even been linked with these 2, or is this just a wish list
We have been linked to both of those two, Hector has been linked since May.

simplyfulham

Quote from: Statto on August 01, 2019, 01:44:13 PM
Quote from: simplyfulham on August 01, 2019, 01:28:25 PM
Quote from: Statto on August 01, 2019, 01:10:53 PM
Quote from: simplyfulham on August 01, 2019, 01:01:17 PM
Quote from: Facts Not Fiction on August 01, 2019, 11:40:28 AM
Quote from: Chutney on August 01, 2019, 11:23:14 AM
Quote from: Facts Not Fiction on August 01, 2019, 08:49:12 AM
Quote from: grandad on July 31, 2019, 11:05:38 PM
Etheridge made quite a few cock ups last season. Betts is much better.

In no world is Bettinelli better than Etheridge.

Bettinelli has a better save %, better distribution figures and has conceded fewer goals.

Strange that playing less games means you concede less. However, at PL level, Bettinelli conceded 20 in 7, rate of just under 3 a game. Etheridge 69 in 38, under 2 a game.

Etheridge's distribution is awful, but so is Bettinelli's.

Etheridge faced 210 shots on target last season, Bettinelli 40. Etheridge conceded 69, Bettinelli 20. Etheridge hence has a better save % of 67% to 50%.

Guess the defence they play behind doesn't count then hey?  :doh:

Well, not in relation to distribution or save %

Although FWIW I still wouldn't swap Betts for Etheridge.

Save % of what though?

If I save 90% of shots from 45 yards am I better keeper than you if you save 10% of shots from 6 yards.

If you have a better defence infront of you restricting chances to shots that are less likely to be dangerous then yes I'd say it makes a big difference.

IMO that reasoning is very questionable. You're assuming that when teams can't easily penetrate the Cardiff defence, they just give up and shoot aimlessly from 20 or 30 yrds out. Not sure it works like that. Also the problem with our "defence" is commonly blamed on players in midfield and attack not doing their defensive duties further up the field - doesn't that mean the difference between us and Cardiff was that we were giving the opposition more space in areas 20 or 30 yrds (or more) out? We weren't necessarily worse in and around the 6-yard box. 

In any case, the difference in Betts' and Etheridge's respective save percentages is greater than the difference between the quality of the defences in front of them. Cardiff were almost as crap as us and conceded 69 goals to our 81. Betts would need a save rate of about 57% to be as good as Etheridge allowing for how much better their defence was.

You've misread my point horribly. I'm not assuming anything about what exactly Cardiff are or aren't doing to stop or block shots. A 20 yard shot v a 6 yard shot is merely an example.

You can't tell me that all shots on goal have an equal chance of going in. The direciron, angle, pace and distance all play a part. Those factors are in part determined by the what the other 10 players on the defending team are doing on the pitch to (hopefully) attempt to prevent a goal.

So therefore, a goalkeepers save percentage of saving those  shots is in part effected by how good the goal scoring chance is which is effected by how good the defence is.

That's it.

So comparing Etheridges save % to Bettinellis is not very valuable wen you consider how different the two teams in front of those keepers are in terms of doing their collective job defensively.

Statto

Quote from: simplyfulham on August 01, 2019, 03:03:03 PM
a goalkeepers save percentage of saving those  shots is in part effected by how good the goal scoring chance is which is effected by how good the defence is

I disagree, for the reasons stated in my post

To reiterate, I don't think you can infer from a team being poor defensively, that their GK faces a higher proportion (proportion, not number) of shots from close range or easier angles.

Perhaps you "misread my point horribly"

And in any case, to repeat my last point, which you haven't responded to, the difference between Etheridge's and Bettinellii' save percentages is even greater than the difference between the defences they had in front of them (which were both crap)


sarnian

Who cares about keepers  :dead horse:

What about some defenders and midfielders brought in

fulhamben

Quote from: Jeroen on August 01, 2019, 01:33:06 PM
Quote from: grandad on August 01, 2019, 01:18:48 PM
Quote from: Arthur on August 01, 2019, 10:39:35 AM
Quote from: grandad on August 01, 2019, 10:13:20 AM
Quote from: humussapiens on August 01, 2019, 10:09:36 AM
Newcastle wants 15 mil for Gayle.

I would buy him in an instant, more to stop other teams getting a proven goal scorer.

But you've been critical in the past of bigger clubs that stockpile players (albeit mostly emerging talents) and then loan them abroad or to lower leagues seemingly as a means of preventing other P.L. clubs from utilising their talent.

Would I be right in saying this is a case of your having one rule for us and another for them?
We are not a big club, we need cover for Mitro, one player is not stockpiling, option to play 4-4-2 or 4-3-3.

How about the guy we signed from Chelsea for a free for the U23 - He seemed lie a good prospect, can he be an understudy at some point during the season?
dont see why not, obviously you will get naysayers on here in the same way that there was for when dembele burst onto the scene. I'm sure someone can find out, but I think crossdale has actually got a better scoring record than dembele had for youth teams
CHRIS MARTIN IS SO BAD,  WE NOW PRAISE HIM FOR MAKING A RUN.

simplyfulham

Quote from: Statto on August 01, 2019, 03:33:07 PM


To reiterate, I don't think you can infer from a team being poor defensively, that their GK faces a higher proportion (proportion, not number) of shots from close range or easier angles.


But I haven't said that. You've made that assumption.

I've only said that you can't use save percentage alone to judge two goal keepers against each other.


Mince n Tatties

#2129
Well one things for sure there want be any new centre back in the side at Barnsley.😵
Remember when it was said still 7 days to go of Jan Window, anyone else think its going to repeat itself.

hovewhite

Christie gets a hard time from this furom,and it's harsh in my opinion,but then if you argue this point I get a hard time.dont give a monkeys about it you love someone to rip your teeth into!!

Statto

Quote from: simplyfulham on August 01, 2019, 04:24:47 PM
Quote from: Statto on August 01, 2019, 03:33:07 PM


To reiterate, I don't think you can infer from a team being poor defensively, that their GK faces a higher proportion (proportion, not number) of shots from close range or easier angles.


But I haven't said that. You've made that assumption.

I've only said that you can't use save percentage alone to judge two goal keepers against each other.

So in your opinion, is there any reason to believe that Bettinelli faced a higher proportion of shots from close range than Etheridge?


Jeroen

 
[/quote]
We are not a big club, we need cover for Mitro, one player is not stockpiling, option to play 4-4-2 or 4-3-3.
[/quote]

How about the guy we signed from Chelsea for a free for the U23 - He seemed lie a good prospect, can he be an understudy at some point during the season?
[/quote]

He hasn't played in the last 2 U23 games and he's not got a squad number. Not sure what's happened to him.
[/quote]

Yeah weird, he scored in his first two games and social media was all over it (himself and Fulham)

MJG

Quote from: Jeroen on August 01, 2019, 04:41:57 PM

We are not a big club, we need cover for Mitro, one player is not stockpiling, option to play 4-4-2 or 4-3-3.
[/quote]

How about the guy we signed from Chelsea for a free for the U23 - He seemed lie a good prospect, can he be an understudy at some point during the season?
[/quote]

He hasn't played in the last 2 U23 games and he's not got a squad number. Not sure what's happened to him.
[/quote]

Yeah weird, he scored in his first two games and social media was all over it (himself and Fulham)
[/quote]

Might just have a knock and the only people who were promoting him to the first team were fans. Just because he hasnt been given a (first team) number doesnt mean he cant play in the future.
Just the views of a long term fan

wheelerdeeler

An in-depth look at the signings already made, as well as looking at potential players to sign before the Deadline (and more).
https://t.co/RVtTqUTQvD?amp=1



simplyfulham

Quote from: Statto on August 01, 2019, 04:35:28 PM
Quote from: simplyfulham on August 01, 2019, 04:24:47 PM
Quote from: Statto on August 01, 2019, 03:33:07 PM


To reiterate, I don't think you can infer from a team being poor defensively, that their GK faces a higher proportion (proportion, not number) of shots from close range or easier angles.


But I haven't said that. You've made that assumption.

I've only said that you can't use save percentage alone to judge two goal keepers against each other.

So in your opinion, is there any reason to believe that Bettinelli faced a higher proportion of shots from close range than Etheridge?

Firstly, that's not the point is it. I'm talking about the quality of chances faced. Distance is simply one metric of that and is the easiest metric to measure (pardon the pun).

Secondly, Cardiff faced 36% of shots from outside the box. Fulham faced 34% of shots from outside the box.

BestOfBrede

Can't you start a new thread on blooming keeper stats?
Blimey!

SuffolkWhite

Quote from: BestOfBrede on August 01, 2019, 07:29:41 PM
Can't you start a new thread on blooming keeper stats?
Blimey!


064.gif. You have to love the transfer rumour thread becuase it is anything but  064.gif
Guy goes into the doctor's.
"Doc, I've got a cricket ball stuck up my backside
"How's that?"
"Don't you start"


JoelH5

Villa have spent 144.5 million and want two new players. I pray they go down!
I was there, standing in the Putney end

Mince n Tatties

Quote from: SuffolkWhite on August 01, 2019, 07:40:19 PM
Quote from: BestOfBrede on August 01, 2019, 07:29:41 PM
Can't you start a new thread on blooming keeper stats?
Blimey!


064.gif. You have to love the transfer rumour thread becuase it is anything but  064.gif

+1 And he most probably not signing for us.