How many more points?

[Rodshig]

How many more points do you reckon we need for automatic promotion?

I am thinking 10 more wins.

[AJW48361]

1/9 to win the league with Hills.

[WestSussexWhite]

I think 9 more wins should do it

[Ludlow Richard]

How many more points do you reckon we need for automatic promotion?

I am thinking 10 more wins.

We have 17 games left. 10 more wins would take us to 91 points and we would get a couple of draws in the other7 games. We are not going to need 91 points for automatic. Checking back over the last 15 seasons, 91 points has never been needed to secure automatic promotion; the most needed was 89 (twice, though one of those was on goal difference). The average over those 15 seasons has been 84. So 8 wins will get us to 85, plus a couple of draws and our vastly superior goal difference will see us home.

[Jim©]

I posted this the other day

With 18 games to go, we realistically need around 30 points. That's Preston/Hull form at the moment. The average points to get promoted is 85.6 over the last 15 years

Of course that's now 17 games to go with needing a max (realistically) 27 points giving us a total of 88 (without including our incredible GD). 8 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats would be enough. So even if things go way, way worse than they are now and we lose 1/3rd of our games, we should be fine. For info our last 17 games yielded 38 points, which included the "dry spell" of 4 draws and 1 defeat. 38 points in the next 17 would put us on 99!

I genuinely can't see anything to fret about....

Yet.

[Ludlow Richard]

Just checking remaining fixtures for the top four teams. Based on the table as it stands todays, we have arguably the most difficult run-in. We have to play all six of the other teams from 2nd to 7th in the league, while playing five of the teams between 19th and 24th inclusive.

By contrast AFCB, Blackburn and QPR only have to play four of the other teams in the top seven places. AFCB and Blackburn have only three games to play against the bottom six, while our friends up the road have still to play five of the bottom six. So on paper QPR have the best run in of the top four.

[Riversider]

Looking at our remaining February fixtures and looking at some of the Championship fixtures coming up where all our rivals have to play each other we could literally be home and hosed before we kick off against Blackburn.

[rebel]

The room for error to reach 100 points is not much, but we might just do it.

[Black and White Town]

I'll be a bit disappointed if we end up on less than 100 points. And 100 goals would be pretty sweet.

[mrmicawbers]

I think 9 more wins should do it

Yes i think so too

[Woolly Mammoth]

Just concentrate on the next match as that is the most important, nothing else matters.

[Cookie6262]

8 wins.... 5 draws... 4 losses

Gives us 90 points and promotion

I believe we will get more than this though

[WestSussexWhite]

Just checking remaining fixtures for the top four teams. Based on the table as it stands todays, we have arguably the most difficult run-in. We have to play all six of the other teams from 2nd to 7th in the league, while playing five of the teams between 19th and 24th inclusive.

By contrast AFCB, Blackburn and QPR only have to play four of the other teams in the top seven places. AFCB and Blackburn have only three games to play against the bottom six, while our friends up the road have still to play five of the bottom six. So on paper QPR have the best run in of the top four.

Bournemouth's run in is BRUTAL

[WestSussexWhite]

8 wins.... 5 draws... 4 losses

Gives us 90 points and promotion

I believe we will get more than this though

Agreed, I don't think I see us losing as many as 5

[Cambridge Away]

Just checking remaining fixtures for the top four teams. Based on the table as it stands todays, we have arguably the most difficult run-in. We have to play all six of the other teams from 2nd to 7th in the league, while playing five of the teams between 19th and 24th inclusive.

By contrast AFCB, Blackburn and QPR only have to play four of the other teams in the top seven places. AFCB and Blackburn have only three games to play against the bottom six, while our friends up the road have still to play five of the bottom six. So on paper QPR have the best run in of the top four.

Playing the bottom six at the end of the season can be as bad as playing the top six (remember when we lost under Parker against Wigan, with Antonee Robinson in the side). You want to be playing mid table teams at the end of the season.

[filham]

This is a mouth watering thread but stop, it really is counting chickens and tempting providence at the same time.
Just concentrate on the next match, can we hit three at Hull on Saturday.

[Andy S]

90 points is usually enough to get automatic promotion so we need a minimum of 29 points. If we can pick up some points early then there will be less pressure later on

[WindyCity]

Just concentrate on the next match as that is the most important, nothing else matters.

Thank you!! Thank  you!!  Thank you!!  Thank you!!

I ain't countin' any chickens........

[davew]

Just concentrate on the next match as that is the most important, nothing else matters.

+1, good advice!!!

[FulhamKC]

We need one of those classic MJG analyses about now!