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The Official Silly Season January Transfer Thread 2020/21

Started by Friendsoffulham, December 20, 2020, 03:59:41 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

The Rational Fan

Quote from: LC on January 27, 2021, 03:02:18 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 27, 2021, 01:20:05 AM
A "True Disaster" would be to bring in a striker that is "too expensive to get relegated with" and "yet cannot keep us up". I'm sure Tony Khan has avoided signing many such strikers so far, so many expensive players that won't deliver.

Finding a "cheap striker to keep us up" isn't easy; plus let's be honest such a striker would be talking to Brighton, WBA, Newcastle, and Burnley as well, and as I doubt FFC is his best option; I don't assume we will win the race to sign him.

Why wouldn't we be the players 'best option'? Are you saying you would rather play for Burnley or WBA? Brighton are a smaller club than us without a doubt but I could understand a player going to Newcastle over us, but in all fairness we can certainly compete with any of those clubs.

I think most "First XI Premier League Quality Players" would prefer to play for whoever has the greatest chance of staying in the Premier League next season, and according to the bookies Newcastle/Brighton/Burnley fit that criteria.

The Rational Fan

#881
Quote from: Arthur on January 27, 2021, 03:04:41 AM
Quote from: HillingdonFFC on January 26, 2021, 10:19:41 PM
Looks like we've had an official bid of 12m knocked back for Nzola

With time running out, this seems to be our best (only?) hope of a signing. We've made a bid. We could go back with another.

It depends, perhaps, on whether the report that Spezia don't want to sell actually means they will sell if we make a high offer. In such circumstances, our opening bid is always going to be declined because the selling club will be trying to extract the maximum they can from us. It might take a couple of incremental bids before Spezia can see we have reached our limit.

On the other hand, of course, Spezia may simply have made it clear they will not be selling their man for any price we might be able to afford.

Let's be clear reading the accounts and FFP laws, we can afford to pay around £35m for a striker, which is a lot more than £12m required to buy a striker like Nzola, so we can bid higher for him if he improves our chances enough.

While FFP allows us to spend £35m on a five contract this season, if we spend that much and don't stay up, we cannot pay our players amortization, so we will have to cut wages to nothing and the dreaded double relegation is probably unavoidable. Let us not forget, we still have to pay 50% of Anguissa's transfer fee and 37.5% of Seri's transfer fee.

Alternatively, if we spend nothing this window, then relegation is likely but it is not a certainty as Mitrovic can deliver at this level when in form; and if we go down able to maintain the most of the current squad, then coming back up immediately is likely.

I believe the DOF, instead of buying a new striker, should spend this season's remaining money writing down the book value of Fabri, Mawson, MLM, Seri, and Knockaert to their correct values to reduce our future amortization's costs, which allows FFC to spend money on the wages of our existing squad next season.

Woolly Mammoth

#882
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 27, 2021, 04:08:25 AM
Quote from: Arthur on January 27, 2021, 03:04:41 AM
Quote from: HillingdonFFC on January 26, 2021, 10:19:41 PM
Looks like we've had an official bid of 12m knocked back for Nzola
With time running out, this seems to be our best (only) hope of a signing. We've made a bid. We could go back with another.

It depends, perhaps, on whether the report that Spezia don't want to sell actually means they will sell if we make a high offer. In such circumstances, our opening bid is always going to be declined because the selling club will be trying to extract the maximum they can from us. It might take a couple of incremental bids before Spezia can see we have reached our limit.

On the other hand, of course, Spezia may simply have made it clear they will not be selling their man for any price we might be able to afford.

Let's be clear reading the accounts and FFP laws, we can afford to pay around £35m for a striker, which is a lot more than £12m required to buy a striker like Nzola so we can bid higher. While FFP allows us to spend £35m on a five contract, if we spend that much and don't stay up, the dreaded double relegation is probably unavoidable. Alternatively, if we spend nothing relegation is not a certainty and if we go down coming back up is likely.

Instead of buying a new striker, I believe the DOF, should spend this season's remaining money writing down the book value of Fabri, Mawson, MLM, Seri, and Knockaert to their correct values to reduce our future amortization's costs.

Putting the future to one side for the moment, how about considering the present for a change. As there is a small matter of avoiding relegation. Which would save Fulham an awful lot of trouble and financial headache. Which would be caused by relegation. To accumulate you need to speculate, and for the price of one striker who does not need a Sat Nav to find the onion bag whereupon we would get our money back if we stayed up. That should not be too difficult should it and financially astute.
Since they had the best part of six months to find a forward assuming he was on the top of their shopping list in the first place, or are they still sleep walking around to find yet another defender.
Or perhaps as an alternative they should first of all find a full time competent D  of  F as opposed to the current part time one. A full time one with the added knowledge and ability to identify and successfully negotiate a deal to sign a striker.
I mean we have so much time on our side, the best part of five days.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.


The Rational Fan

#883
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on January 27, 2021, 04:40:30 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 27, 2021, 04:08:25 AM
Quote from: Arthur on January 27, 2021, 03:04:41 AM
Quote from: HillingdonFFC on January 26, 2021, 10:19:41 PM
Looks like we've had an official bid of 12m knocked back for Nzola
With time running out, this seems to be our best (only) hope of a signing. We've made a bid. We could go back with another.

It depends, perhaps, on whether the report that Spezia don't want to sell actually means they will sell if we make a high offer. In such circumstances, our opening bid is always going to be declined because the selling club will be trying to extract the maximum they can from us. It might take a couple of incremental bids before Spezia can see we have reached our limit.

On the other hand, of course, Spezia may simply have made it clear they will not be selling their man for any price we might be able to afford.

Let's be clear reading the accounts and FFP laws, we can afford to pay around £35m for a striker, which is a lot more than £12m required to buy a striker like Nzola so we can bid higher. While FFP allows us to spend £35m on a five contract, if we spend that much and don't stay up, the dreaded double relegation is probably unavoidable. Alternatively, if we spend nothing relegation is not a certainty and if we go down coming back up is likely.

Instead of buying a new striker, I believe the DOF, should spend this season's remaining money writing down the book value of Fabri, Mawson, MLM, Seri, and Knockaert to their correct values to reduce our future amortization's costs.

Putting the future to one side for the moment, how about considering the present for a change. As there is a small matter of avoiding relegation. Which would save Fulham an awful lot of trouble and financial headache. Which would be caused by relegation. To accumulate you need to speculate, and for the price of one striker who does not need a Sat Nav to find the onion bag whereupon we would get our money back if we stayed up. That should not be too difficult should it and financially astute.
Since they had the best part of six months to find a forward assuming he was on the top of their shopping list in the first place, or are they still sleep walking around to find yet another defender.
Or perhaps as an alternative they should first of all find a competent D  of  F with the knowledge and ability to identify and successfully negotiate a deal to sign a striker,
I mean we have so much time on our side, the best part of five days.

If we hire a competent DOF that is correctly able to value Seri's current book value, then he would lower Seri's book value (and others) to less than £1m which would trigger FFP losses, and bingo we cannot buy players.

In a great irony, a competent DOF would have to at a minimum "write off the deadwood"; and not bring in anyone at all. An incompetent DOF could leave Seri's book value at £10m, so he can spend on a striker instead.

Tony Khan is deciding if he should be a "competent DOF" reporting the correct "book value of players" hurting us this season but helping us next season, or "incompetent DOF" incorrectly reporting the book value of players so he can be bringing in that extra striker that would help us this season and hurt us next season.

As we can see a "highly incompetent DOF" with "excellent advisors" is the only combination that can get us the right striker. The "excellent advisors" must recommend the right striker at the right price, but not alert the DOF to the fact that Seri might not be worth £10m.

Woolly Mammoth

Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 27, 2021, 05:24:59 AM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on January 27, 2021, 04:40:30 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 27, 2021, 04:08:25 AM
Quote from: Arthur on January 27, 2021, 03:04:41 AM
Quote from: HillingdonFFC on January 26, 2021, 10:19:41 PM
Looks like we've had an official bid of 12m knocked back for Nzola
With time running out, this seems to be our best (only) hope of a signing. We've made a bid. We could go back with another.

It depends, perhaps, on whether the report that Spezia don't want to sell actually means they will sell if we make a high offer. In such circumstances, our opening bid is always going to be declined because the selling club will be trying to extract the maximum they can from us. It might take a couple of incremental bids before Spezia can see we have reached our limit.

On the other hand, of course, Spezia may simply have made it clear they will not be selling their man for any price we might be able to afford.

Let's be clear reading the accounts and FFP laws, we can afford to pay around £35m for a striker, which is a lot more than £12m required to buy a striker like Nzola so we can bid higher. While FFP allows us to spend £35m on a five contract, if we spend that much and don't stay up, the dreaded double relegation is probably unavoidable. Alternatively, if we spend nothing relegation is not a certainty and if we go down coming back up is likely.

Instead of buying a new striker, I believe the DOF, should spend this season's remaining money writing down the book value of Fabri, Mawson, MLM, Seri, and Knockaert to their correct values to reduce our future amortization's costs.

Putting the future to one side for the moment, how about considering the present for a change. As there is a small matter of avoiding relegation. Which would save Fulham an awful lot of trouble and financial headache. Which would be caused by relegation. To accumulate you need to speculate, and for the price of one striker who does not need a Sat Nav to find the onion bag whereupon we would get our money back if we stayed up. That should not be too difficult should it and financially astute.
Since they had the best part of six months to find a forward assuming he was on the top of their shopping list in the first place, or are they still sleep walking around to find yet another defender.
Or perhaps as an alternative they should first of all find a competent D  of  F with the knowledge and ability to identify and successfully negotiate a deal to sign a striker,
I mean we have so much time on our side, the best part of five days.

If we hire a competent DOF that is correctly able to value Seri's current book value, then he would lower Seri's book value (and others) to less than £1m which would trigger FFP losses, and bingo we cannot buy players.

In a great irony, a competent DOF would have to at a minimum "write off the deadwood"; and not bring in anyone at all. An incompetent DOF could leave Seri's book value at £10m, so he can spend on a striker instead.

Tony Khan is deciding if he should be a "competent DOF" reporting the correct "book value of players" hurting us this season but helping us next season, or "incompetent DOF" incorrectly reporting the book value of players so he can be bringing in that extra striker that would help us this season and hurt us next season.

I shall try and get back asap once I find an interpreter. I should make yourself comfortable as I could be quite a while.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

The Rational Fan

#885
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on January 27, 2021, 05:30:53 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 27, 2021, 05:24:59 AM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on January 27, 2021, 04:40:30 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 27, 2021, 04:08:25 AM
Quote from: Arthur on January 27, 2021, 03:04:41 AM
Quote from: HillingdonFFC on January 26, 2021, 10:19:41 PM
Looks like we've had an official bid of 12m knocked back for Nzola
With time running out, this seems to be our best (only) hope of a signing. We've made a bid. We could go back with another.

It depends, perhaps, on whether the report that Spezia don't want to sell actually means they will sell if we make a high offer. In such circumstances, our opening bid is always going to be declined because the selling club will be trying to extract the maximum they can from us. It might take a couple of incremental bids before Spezia can see we have reached our limit.

On the other hand, of course, Spezia may simply have made it clear they will not be selling their man for any price we might be able to afford.

Let's be clear reading the accounts and FFP laws, we can afford to pay around £35m for a striker, which is a lot more than £12m required to buy a striker like Nzola so we can bid higher. While FFP allows us to spend £35m on a five contract, if we spend that much and don't stay up, the dreaded double relegation is probably unavoidable. Alternatively, if we spend nothing relegation is not a certainty and if we go down coming back up is likely.

Instead of buying a new striker, I believe the DOF, should spend this season's remaining money writing down the book value of Fabri, Mawson, MLM, Seri, and Knockaert to their correct values to reduce our future amortization's costs.

Putting the future to one side for the moment, how about considering the present for a change. As there is a small matter of avoiding relegation. Which would save Fulham an awful lot of trouble and financial headache. Which would be caused by relegation. To accumulate you need to speculate, and for the price of one striker who does not need a Sat Nav to find the onion bag whereupon we would get our money back if we stayed up. That should not be too difficult should it and financially astute.
Since they had the best part of six months to find a forward assuming he was on the top of their shopping list in the first place, or are they still sleep walking around to find yet another defender.
Or perhaps as an alternative they should first of all find a competent D  of  F with the knowledge and ability to identify and successfully negotiate a deal to sign a striker,
I mean we have so much time on our side, the best part of five days.

If we hire a competent DOF that is correctly able to value Seri's current book value, then he would lower Seri's book value (and others) to less than £1m which would trigger FFP losses, and bingo we cannot buy players.

In a great irony, a competent DOF would have to at a minimum "write off the deadwood"; and not bring in anyone at all. An incompetent DOF could leave Seri's book value at £10m, so he can spend on a striker instead.

Tony Khan is deciding if he should be a "competent DOF" reporting the correct "book value of players" hurting us this season but helping us next season, or "incompetent DOF" incorrectly reporting the book value of players so he can be bringing in that extra striker that would help us this season and hurt us next season.

I shall try and get back asap once I find an interpreter. I should make yourself comfortable as I could be quite a while.

FFP is highly confusing, most of the comments of FOF show very little understanding of how it works over a rolling three year cycle and more importantly how a DOF best positions a club to do well under it. Once someone understands how FFP works, they will soon realize Tony Khan is a much better DOF than most fans give him credit for.


Bassey the warrior

#886
So few transfer runours yet so many posts as it's full of digs and counter digs about Tony Khan. Maybe someone can start another thread for having a dig at Khan? This is a transfer rumours thread.

FulhamStu

#887
I am going to repeat myself because nobody has really picked up on a previous post, signing a striker does NOT guarantee anything other than putting the club in more financial difficulty, and by financial I mean FFP. I am sure 99% of Fulham fans want a striker that will bang em in and keep us up, it's just possible that will not happen.  Would Ivan Toney be able to do it in the Prem for us, would Dembele 3rd make a difference ? There is just as much chance that Mitro will find some form, get fit and do what we need.  It's a tough call and a game of chance and risk assessment.  To have the debate properly, we would need to be fully aware of the financial state of play but the fact that we spent so little after promotion is a very good indicator.
The no's 1, 2 and 3 problems after promotion were to sort out the defence, doing that with such little spend was a great achievement.  The lack of goals is not down to just a striker, it's a team thing and one new striker would help but I suspect not solve it.

RaySmith

#888
You're right Stu.

There's a lot of emphasis on this  potential striker, whoever he might be, to rescue us, but no guarantee that   even if we can sign someone with  proven scoring record they will work a miracle for us.

As you say, scoring is a collective team effort, and   we have actually been creating   several good scoring chances a game- Cav has  for a  start, even against top opposition.
If we can start converting these, then   we would get the wins we need.
However, we are short of a proper centre forward who is pacey and can score - at the moment we only have Mitro, who seems out of favour because of his lack of mobility, or being off form , depending on who you listen to.

Cav has done his best, and with a bit of composure, could be a scoring hero, but he's no number 9, and I felt sorry for him watching his unsuccessful attempts to hold the ball up and lay it off, as Mitro does so well, v Chelsea.
Though he works so effectively most of the time, for the team, and noone can criticise his work ethic,  and  is often unfairly criticised.

But we do need a o pacey number 9, but it looks like we might not get anyone this window, so it might just be case of making the most of the players we have - and this is a team  that has been creating a lot of scoring chances per game, and if we can start putting them  away, we wouldn't be so concerned with the lack of this striker.


Statto

Quote from: FulhamStu on January 27, 2021, 08:54:39 AM
I am going to repeat myself because nobody has really picked up on a previous post, signing a striker does NOT guarantee anything other than putting the club in more financial difficulty, and by financial I mean FFP.

You can say that about any signing Stu. Why bother signing anyone ever?

Statto

Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 27, 2021, 04:08:25 AM
Let's be clear reading the accounts and FFP laws, we can afford to pay around £35m for a striker

That is most certainly not clear

FulhamStu

#891
Quote from: Statto on January 27, 2021, 09:30:11 AM
Quote from: FulhamStu on January 27, 2021, 08:54:39 AM
I am going to repeat myself because nobody has really picked up on a previous post, signing a striker does NOT guarantee anything other than putting the club in more financial difficulty, and by financial I mean FFP.

That's very true and nobody is saying we should not sign a striker, it's just complicated.

You can say that about any signing Stu. Why bother signing anyone ever?


That's very true and. Am not saying we should not sign a striker, I am just discussing the difficulties and potential pitfalls.  How does it effect things if we don't stay up and we spend say £20M ?  I don't know, it's complicated.



FFC In Oz

Meanwhile, WBA are showing that it is possible to get a decent striker in January, bringing in Mbaye Diagne from Galatasaray.

Looks like we will be enjoying Cav up front for the rest of the season.

Finnans Right Peg

Quote from: FFC In Oz on January 27, 2021, 10:28:17 AM
Meanwhile, WBA are showing that it is possible to get a decent striker in January, bringing in Mbaye Diagne from Galatasaray.

Looks like we will be enjoying Cav up front for the rest of the season.

Maybe we could send Seri and hijack the deal


JimOG

Quote from: Finnans Right Peg on January 27, 2021, 10:30:56 AM
Quote from: FFC In Oz on January 27, 2021, 10:28:17 AM
Meanwhile, WBA are showing that it is possible to get a decent striker in January, bringing in Mbaye Diagne from Galatasaray.

Looks like we will be enjoying Cav up front for the rest of the season.

Maybe we could send Seri and hijack the deal

Morning reports say WBA have cooled because of his club's insistence it's a loan to buy. He's got a very decent recent record but is he a lightning 6ft 4...?

Middlesexclub

The next 2 matches decide our fate and signing decisions . I watched Spurs v Wycombe the other night and saw multi million Gareth Bale miss an open header on goal. Loads more chances squandered so just splashing million's on players doesn't guarantee goals.  If we have spare cash I think we should try to secure Anderson and Lookman as permanents.

FFC In Oz

Quote from: Finnans Right Peg on January 27, 2021, 10:30:56 AM
Quote from: FFC In Oz on January 27, 2021, 10:28:17 AM
Meanwhile, WBA are showing that it is possible to get a decent striker in January, bringing in Mbaye Diagne from Galatasaray.

Looks like we will be enjoying Cav up front for the rest of the season.

Maybe we could send Seri and hijack the deal

Let's do exactly that


Jeroen

Quote from: FFC In Oz on January 27, 2021, 10:28:17 AM
Meanwhile, WBA are showing that it is possible to get a decent striker in January, bringing in Mbaye Diagne from Galatasaray.

Looks like we will be enjoying Cav up front for the rest of the season.

If that is the case it either means;

- we have money and are going after a much better target
- we are totally incompetent

He is exactly what we need with a decent record and have seri make-weight, hence we either look at much better options or have no clue what we are doing

FFC In Oz

Quote from: Jeroen on January 27, 2021, 10:47:33 AM
Quote from: FFC In Oz on January 27, 2021, 10:28:17 AM
Meanwhile, WBA are showing that it is possible to get a decent striker in January, bringing in Mbaye Diagne from Galatasaray.

Looks like we will be enjoying Cav up front for the rest of the season.

If that is the case it either means;

- we have money and are going after a much better target
- we are totally incompetent

He is exactly what we need with a decent record and have seri make-weight, hence we either look at much better options or have no clue what we are doing

I said in this thread about a week ago that we weren't signing anyone and it still looks to be the case.

I would do anything to be wrong and get in a pacy wide man/forward who can finish, but can't see it happening.