Summer Silly Season Transfer Thread 2024

[iansthailand]

These player rumours are getting more ridiculous by the day. Brazilian's , Columbian's, Turk's , Serbian's and the only thing happening at Motspur Park is Sue the tea lady has put the kettle on.

And it suits her!

[jayffc]

Emile Smith Rowe's statistical averages per 90 minutes in the Premier League compared to Andreas Pereira
                                  Emile Smith Rowe   Andreas Pereira
Pass completion percentage       85.2                 70.6
Percentage of shots on targe     45.8                34.2
Passes into the penalty area      1.11                0.96
Goals                                      0.27                0.11
Assists                                          0.20                0.20
Statistics correct as of 16/07/2024
All statistics courtesy of FBref and Transfermarkt

Perreira cost £10m including add-ons

Yup

Because he never showed enough at Man Utd, scoring 2 goals and 4 assists across 5 seasons, wasn't wanted there and was shipped on loan before we brought him in.

ESR on paper:
1. Proved more at a young age and has done considerably better at a top 6 club than Andreas did at Utd.
2. Is 3 Years Younger
3. Is tipped to have a higher ceiling
4. Isn't being signed off the back of being sent out on loan to a smaller league as he wasn't wanted at his club anymore. (Arsenal seem perfectly happy to keep him unless a good bid comes in as he can contribute off the bench there for them and still has plenty upside)
4. Is English (wether we like it or not it seems to historically mean higher valuations.)

Unsurprisingly therefore, he's gonna be a more expensive gamble. If we want to take a step up in quality, sometimes it will likely cost us. Again - 40m is a stretch for me too, and wishful thinking IMO but he's certainly shown he's capable of being a top player and likely at the start of heading into his prime years for the next 5 years. 2 good years like Palhinha and who knows what he'd be worth then.

Whatever happens it's a gamble and pretty much all clubs have chequered histories of gambles that paid off and those that didn't, but sometimes ya gotta roll the dice. We'll see what the club do. 

[jayffc]

However we look at transfer and the potential of players and the price of players. It is always going to be a gamble. Sometimes players work and can fit into a side and sometimes they simply can't. Speculation is fun and enjoyable. But I leave it to those at the club to gamble wisely.

Pretty much, we arent renowned for taking massive gambles and when we have in past it's generally been a mixed bag...

Marlet - not good
Kostas Mitroglu - bad times
Mawson - Nope.
Mitro - massive win
Seri - Decent player but didn't work out for him on the whole here (albeit he contributed in the champ for us)
Anguissa - good player but mixed form for us. very successful since moving on, would have loved him to be here under Marco.
Palhinha - massive win
Diop - Decent enough.
Bassey - Big win so far
Iwobi - worked out well for us so far

This could be the biggest risk we take since Seri. And personally I'd take the gamble at a similar price with specific add-ons. Bags of potential but no guarantees whatever you do. You can never guarantee it works out but ESR looks worth the roll of the dice to me.

[Craven Mad]

However we look at transfer and the potential of players and the price of players. It is always going to be a gamble. Sometimes players work and can fit into a side and sometimes they simply can't. Speculation is fun and enjoyable. But I leave it to those at the club to gamble wisely.

Pretty much, we arent renowned for taking massive gambles and when we have in past it's generally been a mixed bag...

Marlet - not good
Kostas Mitroglu - bad times
Mawson - Nope.
Mitro - massive win
Seri - Decent player but didn't work out for him on the whole here (albeit he contributed in the champ for us)
Anguissa - good player but mixed form for us. very successful since moving on, would have loved him to be here under Marco.
Palhinha - massive win
Diop - Decent enough.
Bassey - Big win so far
Iwobi - worked out well for us so far

This could be the biggest risk we take since Seri. And personally I'd take the gamble at a similar price with specific add-ons. Bags of potential but no guarantees whatever you do. You can never guarantee it works out but ESR looks worth the roll of the dice to me.

Agree with your assessments, but I'd probably add Andy Johnson, Bryan Ruiz, Harry Wilson, Ross McCormack, Timothy Castagne to your list!

[jayffc]

However we look at transfer and the potential of players and the price of players. It is always going to be a gamble. Sometimes players work and can fit into a side and sometimes they simply can't. Speculation is fun and enjoyable. But I leave it to those at the club to gamble wisely.

Pretty much, we arent renowned for taking massive gambles and when we have in past it's generally been a mixed bag...

Marlet - not good
Kostas Mitroglu - bad times
Mawson - Nope.
Mitro - massive win
Seri - Decent player but didn't work out for him on the whole here (albeit he contributed in the champ for us)
Anguissa - good player but mixed form for us. very successful since moving on, would have loved him to be here under Marco.
Palhinha - massive win
Diop - Decent enough.
Bassey - Big win so far
Iwobi - worked out well for us so far

This could be the biggest risk we take since Seri. And personally I'd take the gamble at a similar price with specific add-ons. Bags of potential but no guarantees whatever you do. You can never guarantee it works out but ESR looks worth the roll of the dice to me.

Agree with your assessments, but I'd probably add Andy Johnson, Bryan Ruiz, Harry Wilson, Ross McCormack, Timothy Castagne to your list!

I kinda went for that 15m+ kinda range

But that said:

Johnson - Win
McCormack - carried and kept us from falling out the championship with some help from Dembele, steadied the ship during a tough period.
Ruiz- mixed bag, never quite hit the heights we all wanted
Wilson - Good contribution on the whole and massively contributed to a record season in the championship to get us promoted.
Castagne - very good so far, didn't think we could improve on Tete, but he's managed to keep him out the team with very good performances.

On the whole from that bunch I make it:

8 or 9 wins
3 or 4 mixed that split opinion.
3 outright complete flops

Could be worse.

[bencher]

However we look at transfer and the potential of players and the price of players. It is always going to be a gamble. Sometimes players work and can fit into a side and sometimes they simply can't. Speculation is fun and enjoyable. But I leave it to those at the club to gamble wisely.

Pretty much, we arent renowned for taking massive gambles and when we have in past it's generally been a mixed bag...

Marlet - not good
Kostas Mitroglu - bad times
Mawson - Nope.
Mitro - massive win
Seri - Decent player but didn't work out for him on the whole here (albeit he contributed in the champ for us)
Anguissa - good player but mixed form for us. very successful since moving on, would have loved him to be here under Marco.
Palhinha - massive win
Diop - Decent enough.
Bassey - Big win so far
Iwobi - worked out well for us so far

This could be the biggest risk we take since Seri. And personally I'd take the gamble at a similar price with specific add-ons. Bags of potential but no guarantees whatever you do. You can never guarantee it works out but ESR looks worth the roll of the dice to me.

Agree with your assessments, but I'd probably add Andy Johnson, Bryan Ruiz, Harry Wilson, Ross McCormack, Timothy Castagne to your list!

I kinda went for that 15m+ kinda range

But that said:

Johnson - Win
McCormack - carried and kept us from falling out the championship with some help from Dembele, steadied the ship during a tough period.
Ruiz- mixed bag, never quite hit the heights we all wanted
Wilson - Good contribution on the whole and massively contributed to a record season in the championship to get us promoted.
Castagne - very good so far, didn't think we could improve on Tete, but he's managed to keep him out the team with very good performances.

On the whole from that bunch I make it:

8 or 9 wins
3 or 4 mixed that split opinion.
3 outright complete flops

Could be worse.

Is it fair to compare different eras with similar sums? £11m spent in 2001 on Marlet is surely like spending £50m now or something, not equivalent to spending £18m on Castagne? We have done better lately with our expensive signings, but we haven't made any truly marquee signings since 2018 with Seri and Anguissa (discounting Mitro because he'd already had a successful loan).

[Jim©]

If you look at Wilsons actual stats, he's some way ahead of Pereira, Iwobi in goal contributions (one every 161 mins).
I am not sure why he doesn't get more minutes in Periera's role as I feel it's his best.

[FFC007]

One positive note.. we are in a vastly stronger position than we were in when Magath was in charge...

What a tool he was.

[Wolf]

One positive note.. we are in a vastly stronger position than we were in when Magath was in charge...

What a tool he was.

Also, what a shockingly bad choice of appointment he was. My immediate instinct was absolute horror.

[Drewry66]

So without the injuries ESR looks a massive talent and potential steal even at the £35 to £40 million mark. Just look at how gutted Arsenal fans are with all these reports as they all rate him so highly. Question is how big a risk are these injuries?? If it was knee ligaments you wouldn't be going anywhere near this kind of fee. Players can do better with different fitness coaches etc...look at Cairney under Marco and co vs before and we had the second best injury record in the league last year. Could be luck or maybe our team are brilliant?

Anyway ESR record is this:

eason
Injury
Days
Games missed
23/24   Bruise on ankle   6 days   Arsenal FC1
23/24   Knee injury   40 days   Arsenal FC9
22/23   Groin surgery   121 days   Arsenal FCEngland U2121
20/21   Shoulder injury   91 days   Arsenal FCEngland30
19/20   Head injury   14 days   Arsenal FC U232
19/20   Groin injury   127 days   Arsenal FC U23England34
18/19   Adductor pain   21 days   RB Leipzig4
18/19   Hamstring injury   91 days   Arsenal FC U23RB LeipzigEngland24
18/19   Groin problems   91 days   Arsenal FC U23RB Leipzig6
18/19   Bruised ribs   7 days

Quite a few smaller ones just random and may never happen again.

The hamstring could be a concern but not been a problem since 18/19 and don't players often fully recover here?? Some struggle with repeated but I believe many are fine after tearing once??

The groin is clearly the big one but I note in 22/23 he had surgery. Any medical experts on here got any idea of likely issues following surgery?? And are you as good as you were before the injury?? I believe some injuries can be fully sorted with surgery where others there's always a weakness?? I suppose this is the key to just how massive a risk this is at £35 million+. Interested to know any medical experts thoughts if we have any. 

[hovewhite]

Let's see who the first signing is,I don't know,haven't been told,in fact who knows with AM and TK,a bit of a rollercoaster .
But it always is.

[C Block]

Just read that Ajax are trying to sign Harry Wilson,  he divides opinion, but I for one would be sad to see him go 😔

[jayffc]

However we look at transfer and the potential of players and the price of players. It is always going to be a gamble. Sometimes players work and can fit into a side and sometimes they simply can't. Speculation is fun and enjoyable. But I leave it to those at the club to gamble wisely.

Pretty much, we arent renowned for taking massive gambles and when we have in past it's generally been a mixed bag...

Marlet - not good
Kostas Mitroglu - bad times
Mawson - Nope.
Mitro - massive win
Seri - Decent player but didn't work out for him on the whole here (albeit he contributed in the champ for us)
Anguissa - good player but mixed form for us. very successful since moving on, would have loved him to be here under Marco.
Palhinha - massive win
Diop - Decent enough.
Bassey - Big win so far
Iwobi - worked out well for us so far

This could be the biggest risk we take since Seri. And personally I'd take the gamble at a similar price with specific add-ons. Bags of potential but no guarantees whatever you do. You can never guarantee it works out but ESR looks worth the roll of the dice to me.

Agree with your assessments, but I'd probably add Andy Johnson, Bryan Ruiz, Harry Wilson, Ross McCormack, Timothy Castagne to your list!

I kinda went for that 15m+ kinda range

But that said:

Johnson - Win
McCormack - carried and kept us from falling out the championship with some help from Dembele, steadied the ship during a tough period.
Ruiz- mixed bag, never quite hit the heights we all wanted
Wilson - Good contribution on the whole and massively contributed to a record season in the championship to get us promoted.
Castagne - very good so far, didn't think we could improve on Tete, but he's managed to keep him out the team with very good performances.

On the whole from that bunch I make it:

8 or 9 wins
3 or 4 mixed that split opinion.
3 outright complete flops

Could be worse.

Is it fair to compare different eras with similar sums? £11m spent in 2001 on Marlet is surely like spending £50m now or something, not equivalent to spending £18m on Castagne? We have done better lately with our expensive signings, but we haven't made any truly marquee signings since 2018 with Seri and Anguissa (discounting Mitro because he'd already had a successful loan).

Not really which is why I didn't compare their costs directly in the first post and added Marlet just as they were all significant expenditures  at the time and well known for being some of our "more expensive/marquee" signings in recent times, and added Marlet into the list despite the fact I was generally looking at our 15m+ signings of late, as he was famously expensive for us for that time.
Also didn't add Castagne myself to the original list for this reason as he wasn't comparatively expensive, he was "up to" 15m with* add ons.

Agree the biggest marquee signings were Seri and Anguissa. Albeit Iwobi was a significant expenditure as were Bassey and Diop significant fees for CB's

[Somerset Fulham]

I would say that anything under £20m is probably just standard these days.  Which of course is mad.

[WindyCity]

So without the injuries ESR looks a massive talent and potential steal even at the £35 to £40 million mark. Just look at how gutted Arsenal fans are with all these reports as they all rate him so highly. Question is how big a risk are these injuries?? If it was knee ligaments you wouldn't be going anywhere near this kind of fee. Players can do better with different fitness coaches etc...look at Cairney under Marco and co vs before and we had the second best injury record in the league last year. Could be luck or maybe our team are brilliant?

Anyway ESR record is this:

eason
Injury
Days
Games missed
23/24   Bruise on ankle   6 days   Arsenal FC1
23/24   Knee injury   40 days   Arsenal FC9
22/23   Groin surgery   121 days   Arsenal FCEngland U2121
20/21   Shoulder injury   91 days   Arsenal FCEngland30
19/20   Head injury   14 days   Arsenal FC U232
19/20   Groin injury   127 days   Arsenal FC U23England34
18/19   Adductor pain   21 days   RB Leipzig4
18/19   Hamstring injury   91 days   Arsenal FC U23RB LeipzigEngland24
18/19   Groin problems   91 days   Arsenal FC U23RB Leipzig6
18/19   Bruised ribs   7 days

Quite a few smaller ones just random and may never happen again.

The hamstring could be a concern but not been a problem since 18/19 and don't players often fully recover here?? Some struggle with repeated but I believe many are fine after tearing once??

The groin is clearly the big one but I note in 22/23 he had surgery. Any medical experts on here got any idea of likely issues following surgery?? And are you as good as you were before the injury?? I believe some injuries can be fully sorted with surgery where others there's always a weakness?? I suppose this is the key to just how massive a risk this is at £35 million+. Interested to know any medical experts thoughts if we have any. 

Thx for this summary.  FFC needs to really be careful with this player.  A lot of money for an injury riddled player.  The groin issue really stands out to me as well.  This is huge concern.  Recurring problem. 

[jayffc]

Emile Smith Rowe's statistical averages per 90 minutes in the Premier League compared to Andreas Pereira
                                  Emile Smith Rowe   Andreas Pereira
Pass completion percentage       85.2                 70.6
Percentage of shots on targe     45.8                34.2
Passes into the penalty area      1.11                0.96
Goals                                      0.27                0.11
Assists                                          0.20                0.20
Statistics correct as of 16/07/2024
All statistics courtesy of FBref and Transfermarkt

Perreira cost £10m including add-ons

Yup

Because he never showed enough at Man Utd, scoring 2 goals and 4 assists across 5 seasons, wasn't wanted there and was shipped on loan before we brought him in.

ESR on paper:
1. Proved more at a young age and has done considerably better at a top 6 club than Andreas did at Utd.
2. Is 3 Years Younger
3. Is tipped to have a higher ceiling
4. Isn't being signed off the back of being sent out on loan to a smaller league as he wasn't wanted at his club anymore. (Arsenal seem perfectly happy to keep him unless a good bid comes in as he can contribute off the bench there for them and still has plenty upside)
4. Is English (wether we like it or not it seems to historically mean higher valuations.)

Unsurprisingly therefore, he's gonna be a more expensive gamble. If we want to take a step up in quality, sometimes it will likely cost us. Again - 40m is a stretch for me too, and wishful thinking IMO but he's certainly shown he's capable of being a top player and likely at the start of heading into his prime years for the next 5 years. 2 good years like Palhinha and who knows what he'd be worth then.

Whatever happens it's a gamble and pretty much all clubs have chequered histories of gambles that paid off and those that didn't, but sometimes ya gotta roll the dice. We'll see what the club do. 

Can't say I find this compelling. Can't really approve us paying a premium because he's English and/or the selling club is in the top 6, I attach zero value to someone being "tipped to have a higher ceiling" without further objective justification, I'm no more impressed by two seasons spent on the subs' bench/treatment table than time spent on loan in La Liga/Serie A/Brazil, and at 24 he's almost the same age Perreira was when we bought him (26, albeit I admit we got a good deal on Perreira).

I'll get behind ESR if we sign him and see what happens, but will be a bit nervous if this is one of our big money signings this summer.

You attach zero value to some of it but being priced significantly higher than Periera is justified by the fact he's already shown far more than Periera did at Man Utd, as seen in the numbers and in the eye test by anyone watching them at that stage. And It's not like Periera was setting the world alight at Flamego either, he was doing alright, better than at Utd but nothing majorly notable.

Not massively unsurprised that you are contrarian on it but the point about being at a top 6 club is not just that he was at a top 6 club (and produced by their top tier academy) but that he was performing far better than Periera ever did when he was at such a club prior to signing for us, so naturally he has a higher valuation. It's not that he's been terrible since the injury he just hasn't had the same run of games because Arsenal brought in 2 of the best players in the league in his positions. He's performed generally well at a club where the expectation is higher, they generally are used to better talent and the competition for spaces is higher than it is at Fulham, and at the age of 21 was frequently being referred to as one of their best-attacking players before his injury. No one was saying that about Periera at the same age, he was promising but never broke into the side in the first place to make a significant contribution and was perenially loaned out till they found a buyer - which hasn't been the case for ESR

When it comes to him being English - I agree it's silly that english players go for more money....but they just do, wether I like it or not. The "english tax" isn't a term for no reason. homegrown players are required in this league so that's some aspect of increased valuations generally speaking I guess.

As for age - 2 years is not an insignificant amount of time in a footballers short career. He could play here for 2 seasons and be heading into his prime and undoubtedly the resale value is likely to be affected once it becomes a matter of him being sold at either 26 or 29... or 27 and 30. That's the reality of markets, we've just seen Palhinha lose 7m in agreed fee from 55m to 47m in 1 year at 29. It absolutely does have an affect on his future valuation and ability to flip for maximum profit later. The stats bear out that younger players with deemed high potential room for growth and improvement covet higher prices partly for the reason of potential resale value

""tipped to have a higher ceiling" without further objective justification".
How can one be objective about a future prediction? You have to make some kind of assessment based on opinion when signing young players... It's literally based on predicting their growth based on what you've seen. And in this case ESR has better stats than Periera had at Man U and even in his best season so far at the age of 21 outperformed Andreas best season in the prem with Fulham in 2022/23. Thats all you can go off of predicting someones ceiling,and when buying young players, part of that is always going to be based on non objective predictions - the eye test, what he's achieved when hes played regularly and the fact he's younger and potentially therefore has more room for growth.

I'd say it's pretty commonly accepted that ESR is seen as a better player than Periera was when he left Man U. He's 2 years younger, generally people believe that the years a footballer tends to "peak" is around the 24-29 sort of range. so he's more expensive. It is what it is (in addition - inflation has also gone up in the last 2 years significantly so there's that added in to the occasion too)

Now, again... 40m feels over-inflated to me too unless a large portion of that is performance based add ons. And I too absolutely would be nervous of anyone coming in on big money...But I've always thought he looked an incredible talent since the days watching plenty of his England youth games and can't say I ever looked at Periera as being as good. The comments from Arsenal fans on the whole under all these posts speak wonders in terms of how he's rated and what people think his potential is by those who have watched him most. Utd fans certainly weren't saying the same on mass about Andreas when he was sold.

Anyway, agree, whatever happens I'll get behind anyone, and in a world where risks will be taken, ESR is one I'd pull the trigger on personally. With nerves for sure if it's an expensive price but we'll see what the club decide.

[Somerset Fulham]

It seems as though Russ is on to Ream being on the move.

https://twitter.com/Russ_Goldman/status/1813220475507474672

[JimmyConway]

It seems as though Russ is on to Ream being on the move.

https://twitter.com/Russ_Goldman/status/1813220475507474672

I would imagine he is going with club's blessing. One last hurrah at next World Cup for his country and playing regularly.
How many positions now does it leave to fill? Quite a few !

[junior white]

AC Milan agree a deal with a Turkish side for Ballo Toure however no agreement with the paye the prefers to wait to see if any English clubs are interested,

[jayffc]

AC Milan agree a deal with a Turkish side for Ballo Toure however no agreement with the paye the prefers to wait to see if any English clubs are interested,

No brainer for me but clearly the club disagree, perhaps they saw something we didn't. The 1.5m sort of range he'll probably go for seems a bargain for a decent LB to me but hey ho.

As for Tim Ream, would be so sad to finally see him move on, what a servant to the club. Can only assume we have 2 new CB's in mind and/or close.