Summer Silly Season Transfer Thread 2024

[jayffc]

I've zero doubt we know our main CDM targets and you'd assume from the links and rumours we have made initial contacts. Wether we can now get those negotiations over the line quickly is another matter that involves the other clubs of course.

Morten Hjulmand
Andre
Luis


Would be my main picks from the bunch we've been linked to so far (though Hjulman would basically be everything out that we've brought in on Joao) . Andre as we know might mean a change of playstyle but well see, it may be that he sees us needing a different system if once it's been confirmed Joao's exiting, we'll have to see. Plenty of time to work it out.

[DM]

As I said.
Palhinha deal done ✅
Willian rejected the offer last Friday but it's now reaching the news.

Fulham have stayed in contact with Fluminense and will now push to complete a deal for André quickly.

Big summer ahead for Fulham now with funds to spend some targets have shifted.

[Fulham Mike]

As I said.
Palhinha deal done ✅
Willian rejected the offer last Friday but it's now reaching the news.

Fulham have stayed in contact with Fluminense and will now push to complete a deal for André quickly.

Big summer ahead for Fulham now with funds to spend some targets have shifted.

 

[Super Mick]

Announced on sky Bayern agree Palhina deal £47.4m

Done. £43.2m rising to £47.5 looks about right to me. Always felt anything around 45m would be a wrap... ultimately historically it's very good business for a 29-year-old CDM outside of European teams who's made it clear he wanted the move so On we go!
Wish Joao the best of luck, he deserves his shot at the Champions League and hope he wins some silverware there. Glad we don't have to play him that's for sure.

Still feel that's not enough. He's worth an easy £60-£70 million.

[Thames Bank 1]

So at this moment that is 4 players required, not including prior to William, Reid and Palhinha going, that Marco was saying he wanted

[Tabby]

So at this moment that is 4 players required, not including prior to William, Reid and Palhinha going, that Marco was saying he wanted

2cbs, 2 midfielders, 2 wingers and a lb seems about right.

[demeant0r]

So at this moment that is 4 players required, not including prior to William, Reid and Palhinha going, that Marco was saying he wanted

2cbs, 2 midfielders, 2 wingers and a lb seems about right.

BDR is a Jack of all trades, so perhaps he would like to replace him with another

[Lordedmundo]

As I said.
Palhinha deal done ✅
Willian rejected the offer last Friday but it's now reaching the news.

Fulham have stayed in contact with Fluminense and will now push to complete a deal for André quickly.

Big summer ahead for Fulham now with funds to spend some targets have shifted.

André has a knee injury - not played since late April. He will apparently be back mid-July, but I'm not convinced that the club are pushing to sign him quickly:

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/andre/leistungsdatendetails/spieler/800176/plus/0?saison=2023&verein=&liga=&wettbewerb=&pos=&trainer_id=

[Bassey the warrior]

Kalvin Philips went to City for €50m and he's absolute shite so I'd expect no less than £55m-£60m for Joao.

Kalvin Phillips was 3 years younger (26) at the time than Palhinha will be when the season starts and was a very highly rated up-and-comer.

As I put on the original thread on Palhinhas market value:

"When I put my rational brain on and try to think of another 29+ year old CDM who's gone for anything north of £40m before. I can only think of a handful.

Casemiro billed as one of if not THE best CDM in the world at the time went to Utd from Madrid for £60m at 30 years old

Fabinho went for 40m from Liverpool at 30 - but he moved to Saudi...so there's that - they overpaid.

Paulinho transferred from Barcelona to Guangzhou Evergrande for £42 million in 2018 at the age of 30.

Nemanja Matic - Moved from Chelsea to Manchester United for £40 million in 2017 at 28 years old

Other than that I can't think of many more?

And the thing all these had was prior proof of performing at a high level in the Champions League...and/or they moved to somewhere that overpaid (china and Saudi)

Now sure - Declan Rice went for over 100m but he was 24.
Caicedo also went for tons - but he was 21!
And sure - inflation etc. But....

In reality - whilst he might be worth over 50m to us in our minds, there isn't much precedent for that sort of fee being charged for someone in the CDM role at 29 and up - and basically none I can think of who hasn't been a regular champs league player before.

We did well to get 55m for him last year - this year anything above 45m + potential add-ons would still be very good market value historically. Even 40m would be more than most CDMs his age go for. We might not like it, we might all want more, and heck, we can choose to keep him if we don't want to sell for that amount. But anywhere between 40-50 would still be historically speaking ,a good amount still.

I disagree, any transfer more than 2 years ago is irrelevant. Prices have significantly increased over the last 5 years, also Palhinha looks like the kind of player that will perform at this level deep into his 30s.

Bayern Munich set the price last summer around £60m, so to come in £15m lighter after one season is too much of a drop.

I think £50m with aggressive add-ons of £5m is fair and I think they'll actually do that.

And if he stays, then even better, I would prefer him to stay for the next 5 years and we add players around him to help challenge for a top 7 place

You can disagree but it doesnt change the fact its seemingly never happened, even in the last 2 years, for CDMs his age not being signed from regular champs league clubs.

Fwiw, According to the ol chatgpt regarding price changes for players over 29 the last 2 years:

For players over the age of 29, football transfer prices have not experienced the same level of inflation as those for younger players. While the overall market has seen significant increases, the inflation rate for players aged 30 or over has been notably lower. Over the past decade, the annual inflation rate for transfer prices of players in this age group has averaged only 3.6%, which is substantially less compared to younger age groups [[❞]](https://football-observatory.com/IMG/sites/mr/mr82/en/) [[❞]](https://football-observatory.com/Inflation-in-the-football-players-transfer-market).

Additionally, the post-pandemic period saw the biggest deflation for players over 29. Clubs are increasingly focusing on younger talent, often seen as better investments for the future

In conclusion, while the football transfer market as a whole has seen rising prices, players over 29 have not experienced the same level of price inflation, reflecting a market preference for younger talent.
-------

So make of that what you will.


Also It was widely reported as £55m not 60m at the time and even this year the reports ive seen have referred to us saying we want that  same 55 (though this youd think would just be high ball tactics)

As I say what I or we'd want or think about his 'potential' ability to maintain form at an older age, doesn't change the reality that in the context of all former transfer prices, for a player in Palhinhas position (29, cdm, not playing for a champs league club for years or even being an established national team starter ) £40-50m range would be considered very high, and therefore, really not bad business.

Again. Id love for us to hold out for more or keep him if we're really not happy but just looking objectively at the facts here.

I expect we'd settle for £45m plus £5m in bonuses, so long as they were easily achievable.

Not a bad prediction if I say so myself.

I'd have liked to get a bit more but by selling early in the window we have plenty of time to get in a replacement.

[Chutney]

I still think we need a striker, we haven't spent the mitrovic money.

[DM]

As I said.
Palhinha deal done ✅
Willian rejected the offer last Friday but it's now reaching the news.

Fulham have stayed in contact with Fluminense and will now push to complete a deal for André quickly.

Big summer ahead for Fulham now with funds to spend some targets have shifted.

André has a knee injury - not played since late April. He will apparently be back mid-July, but I'm not convinced that the club are pushing to sign him quickly:

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/andre/leistungsdatendetails/spieler/800176/plus/0?saison=2023&verein=&liga=&wettbewerb=&pos=&trainer_id=

André has been injured yes but is back in light training. The reason Fulham will move to get it done quickly is other clubs are starting to take notice again. Milan & Spurs are two of them.

[IloveFFC]

I Think Florentino Luís could be a good replacement for João.

[LC]

I Think Florentino Luís could be a good replacement for João.

I think so too. Statistically speaking Anton Stach would be good- although I've never seen him play. I'm not a fan of buying players based on stats, I'm just putting it out there for the sake of putting it out there

[IloveFFC]

https://x.com/FabrizioRomano/status/1808517730707849496

[IloveFFC]

https://x.com/MichaelPlant82/status/1808532141120041293

[demeant0r]

https://x.com/MichaelPlant82/status/1808532141120041293

While McTominay would mean we have another homegrown player and he's actually pretty good, I'm just wary of spending most (£40m reported) of Palhinha's transfer fee on someone who is only slightly younger and will have even less sell-on value as we'd have to sell him for £60m+ to make a decent profit. If he was £20m, then it's a no brainer.

[JimOG]

I Think Florentino Luís could be a good replacement for João.

I think so too. Statistically speaking Anton Stach would be good- although I've never seen him play. I'm not a fan of buying players based on stats, I'm just putting it out there for the sake of putting it out there

Likewise I've not seen Vini Souza of Sheffield Utd but I think he just pipped Joao on tackles made etc...25 years old £12mill according to transfermkt and has experience of the Premiership

[itombomb]

Every year we get 'linked' with multiple players who play the same position as it seems a big part of our strategy is identifying a handful of targets in areas we want, and then negotiating with teams for what we think is the best overall deal (you had that last season in particular with the 4 or 5 LCBs we were linked with, and the 2 or 3 we had apparently agreed fees for).

I believe that we are interested, but my guess is ESR and McTominay are example of that this Summer as we look for another 8/10. I don't see anyway Silva views McTominay as a Palhinha replacement, and I don't even think he would be effective as a double pivot with Lukic (or someone like Andre).

[FreiBird]

I Think Florentino Luís could be a good replacement for João.

I think so too. Statistically speaking Anton Stach would be good- although I've never seen him play. I'm not a fan of buying players based on stats, I'm just putting it out there for the sake of putting it out there

Likewise I've not seen Vini Souza of Sheffield Utd but I think he just pipped Joao on tackles made etc...25 years old £12mill according to transfermkt and has experience of the Premiership

He made 27 tackles less than Palhinha.

He is not good at football.

He consistently threw his teammates under the bus in the press.

[FreiBird]

André has been injured yes but is back in light training. The reason Fulham will move to get it done quickly is other clubs are starting to take notice again. Milan & Spurs are two of them.

As I said.
Palhinha deal done ✅
Willian rejected the offer last Friday but it's now reaching the news.

Fulham have stayed in contact with Fluminense and will now push to complete a deal for André quickly.

Big summer ahead for Fulham now with funds to spend some targets have shifted.

André has a knee injury - not played since late April. He will apparently be back mid-July, but I'm not convinced that the club are pushing to sign him quickly:

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/andre/leistungsdatendetails/spieler/800176/plus/0?saison=2023&verein=&liga=&wettbewerb=&pos=&trainer_id=

André has been injured yes but is back in light training. The reason Fulham will move to get it done quickly is other clubs are starting to take notice again. Milan & Spurs are two of them.

"Back! Mano Menezes confirms André as a starter for Fluminense for the match against Internacional, tomorrow, at Maracanã. The midfielder returns to the field after 70 days."

https://x.com/futebol_info/status/1808540902228410854