Author Topic: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20  (Read 7332 times)

Offline fulhamben

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #140 on: November 28, 2019, 01:57:23 PM »
Table with final position predicted points.



I think this table grossly over estimates Fulham position and under-estimated Leeds/Forest position.

Remaining Games in in the first half of the season.
WBA have three of the top eight teams remaining and two other games.
Leeds have one of the top eight teams remaining and four other games.
Forest have six games remaining but none of the teams are in the top eight teams.
Fulham have five of the top eight teams remaining only.

So far this season
WBA have averaged 1.7 points points/game against top eight and 2.3 points/game otherwise.
Leeds have averaged 1.8 points points/game against top eight and 2.2 points/game otherwise.
Forest have averaged 1.7 points points/game against top eight and 2.0 points/game otherwise.
Fulham have averaged 0.5 points/game against top eight and 1.9 points/game otherwise.

Prediction of Table (after first half based on top eight form)
WBA      = 39 + 3 x 1.7 + 2 x 2.3 = 49 (season of 98 points)
Leeds    = 37 + 1 x 1.8 + 4 x 2.2 = 48 (season of 96 points)
Forest    = 32 + 0 x 1.7 + 6 x 2.0 =  44 (season of 88 points)
Fulham  = 32 + 5 x 0.5 + 0 x 1.9 = 35 (season of 70 points) missing out on playoffs

While our top eight form is based on two games, we have played six games against top twelve teams (1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses), which would change Fulham predicts season total to only 75 points.
so when you say top 8, do you mean as they are today because that’s not also a very accurate way of doing things, for example milwall were flying in the top 3 when we smashed them, but I’m guessing you didn’t count them as top 8 for your points tallying, also the top 8 this week might not be the same come Sunday, so again not sure how you can say certain teams have this many top 8 teams remaining.

Offline FFC1987

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #141 on: November 28, 2019, 02:11:49 PM »
I do think we also need to remember the gap we have between automatic and 3rd now too. We've done well to win three on the bounce but with their lead, the teams above us have managed 4 in a row and unbeaten in 5 whereas we lost and drew. Its a logn way to go but still a lot for us to do. I appreciate the 'we outplayed WestBrom' comments but we still didn't manage the win we sadly needed.

Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #142 on: December 03, 2019, 11:27:59 AM »

Top 6 at 19 games over last ten years

Is it any harder or easier, or just your typical championship season?




Offline Jim©

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #143 on: December 03, 2019, 11:45:52 AM »
Whats perhaps of interest using the table above, is how many of the teams in 3rd or 4th were promoted automatically.
Apart from 2009/10 and 2011/12 we're currently facing the largest gap (along with 2016/7) to make up.


Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #144 on: December 03, 2019, 11:51:22 AM »
Whats perhaps of interest using the table above, is how many of the teams in 3rd or 4th were promoted automatically.
Apart from 2009/10 and 2011/12 we're currently facing the largest gap (along with 2016/7) to make up.
I dont have figures for 19 games, I do for 25 oddly enough which is out of last 20 teams in top 2 at 25 games 15 went up in those positions.
If i did the figures id expect it to be about the same for 19

Green are the teams that were in top 2 at the end




Offline Jim©

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #145 on: December 03, 2019, 12:05:40 PM »
Thanks MJG. Interestingly it seems that there is a large number of teams that have come from a good few points back to get promotion then. Allied to this is the fact that we've still got 6 games to run until then too- if we can stay in the hunt, or even improve our position (playing Leeds could help).
« Last Edit: December 03, 2019, 02:15:42 PM by Jim© »


Offline ALG01

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #146 on: December 03, 2019, 12:24:28 PM »
Thanks MJG. Interestingly it seems that there is a large number of teams that have come from a good few points back to get promotion then. Allied to this is the fact that we've still got 65 games to run until then too- if we can stay in the hunt, or even improve our position (playing Leeds could help).
 

Just for interest I looked at the 2017/18 table at the same number of games as now (you can find it on the fulham web site if you go back on the fixtures page which is actually easier said than done). we were much further away from the second place than we are now and nearly caught cardiff.

so it is not unreasonable to think we could get to second now, it is perfectly possible assuming we keep this run going. however my opinion is each season has its own nuances. wolves were brilliant then and unlikely to be caught and cardiff overachieved, and we had very few injuries and/or suspensions.

this season leeds are arguably underacheiving and WBA over. Which leads us to think what about us. I suspect we have not hit our best form consistently yet and I personally think top two is well within our grasp (a mega change from my outlook from the start of the season!). But I actually have less confidence this time than two seasons ago because I have to factor in Parker's inexperience despite, IMO, having a superior squad.

stas are interesting and make for debate but if reid starts chipping in with a few goals and AK continues to show his more mature side, who knows? The next four games may be very illuminating.

 

Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #147 on: December 09, 2019, 08:49:34 AM »
Table now showing form required over remaining 26 games to make 6th place


Year on Year


Gaps and form


Final table prediction sees 6th place drop to 75 as the top 2 continue to progress.


To make 75 points over last 26 games.




Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #148 on: December 09, 2019, 08:54:22 AM »
Going back to the 23 game run under Slav.
If that was replicated for the first 20 games of a season the top team would be on 51 Points.
Thats how good we were.


Offline Statto

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #149 on: December 09, 2019, 09:42:52 AM »
Going back to the 23 game run under Slav.
If that was replicated for the first 20 games of a season the top team would be on 51 Points.
Thats how good we were.


Undermines the argument from some on here that we "weren't ready" for the PL, which has resurfaced lately as a mitigant for poor performance this season - eg, "it doesn't matter if we don't go up this season, because we're not ready ffor the PL yet anyway"

You go up when you go up, and it's what you do in the subsequent summer window that determines how successful you'll be, not how good you were in your promotion season

Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #150 on: December 09, 2019, 10:11:31 AM »
Going back to the 23 game run under Slav.
If that was replicated for the first 20 games of a season the top team would be on 51 Points.
Thats how good we were.


Undermines the argument from some on here that we "weren't ready" for the PL, which has resurfaced lately as a mitigant for poor performance this season - eg, "it doesn't matter if we don't go up this season, because we're not ready ffor the PL yet anyway"

You go up when you go up, and it's what you do in the subsequent summer window that determines how successful you'll be, not how good you were in your promotion season
I agree we had the best form ending that season, although I do think spending almost a month sorting the playoffs out does affect planning no matter what people say.


Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #151 on: December 11, 2019, 07:09:21 AM »


Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #152 on: December 11, 2019, 11:31:30 AM »
Top 6 mini table



Offline fulhamben

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #153 on: December 11, 2019, 11:45:41 AM »
Going back to the 23 game run under Slav.
If that was replicated for the first 20 games of a season the top team would be on 51 Points.
Thats how good we were.


Undermines the argument from some on here that we "weren't ready" for the PL, which has resurfaced lately as a mitigant for poor performance this season - eg, "it doesn't matter if we don't go up this season, because we're not ready ffor the PL yet anyway"

You go up when you go up, and it's what you do in the subsequent summer window that determines how successful you'll be, not how good you were in your promotion season
hmm do we have any stats on that. I’m willing to bet that teams who had better squads and therefore won the league or came second, or far more likely to stay up than those who scrape through via play offs

Offline love4ffc

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #154 on: December 11, 2019, 12:32:07 PM »