Coronavirus Thread / New / Old / Merged

[fulhamben]

There was a little half truth or deception about testing in the PM's broadcast.  The current test is for presence of the virus which will also indicate positive for someone who has no symptoms.  Currently the UK is testing people with symptoms and then finding the symptoms are not because of Covid-19, which is not the same as testing people who don't have symptoms but find they are indeed infected and therefore infectious to others. 

Likewise there is a very important test currently being devised or designed to identify the question of immunity post infection but no indication of when it may be available.  The whole argument about comprehensive testing is to identify people who are carriers of the virus regardless of how healthy they may feel, because they are the ones likely infecting others. 

As fulhamben and RaySmith suggest the Government are not exactly making sense when that is what is needed.

27 days is the highest recorded incubation period at the moment. Which is scary stuff. But yes we need a test to find out who's had it, not who does or doesn't currently have it. As like I say you could contract it one minute after taking your test.

[f321ffc]

PM advice,  avoid pubs clubs a theatres what sort of advice is that either make venues shut or don't give sh@t advice.

[Oakeshott]

"what sort of advice is that"

Sensible advice which allows for sensible responses. So much more mature and respectful of individuals than what we are seeing in most other countries.

[Southcoastffc]

So many 'experts', so much noise, so little knowledge.

[fulhamben]

So many 'experts', so much noise, so little knowledge.

exactly that. Bbc got 200 scientist to sign a petition against government strategy, and not one of them was a virologist.

[fulhamben]

Fa has basically just suspended all grass roots football

[f321ffc]

"what sort of advice is that"

Sensible advice which allows for sensible responses. So much more mature and respectful of individuals than what we are seeing in most other countries.

Sensible advice? To mix with others in enclosed spaces, what about the bar staff probably on zero hours contracts too frightened not to go to work .

[fulhamben]

"what sort of advice is that"

Sensible advice which allows for sensible responses. So much more mature and respectful of individuals than what we are seeing in most other countries.

Sensible advice? To mix with others in enclosed spaces, what about the bar staff probably on zero hours contracts too frightened not to go to work .

dont forget supermarket staff too. They are mixing with far more people than bar staff would.

[f321ffc]

"what sort of advice is that"

Sensible advice which allows for sensible responses. So much more mature and respectful of individuals than what we are seeing in most other countries.

Sensible advice? To mix with others in enclosed spaces, what about the bar staff probably on zero hours contracts too frightened not to go to work .

dont forget supermarket staff too. They are mixing with far more people than bar staff would.

Very true, in Spain the numbers allowed into supermarkets are restricted so as to keep customers distant from staff, and in pharmacies one customer at a time and must keep 2 metres away from staff.

[Statto]

"what sort of advice is that"

Sensible advice which allows for sensible responses. So much more mature and respectful of individuals than what we are seeing in most other countries.

Agreed

The way I interpret it, today I was advised that if I carry on going to the office, pubs etc, I risk getting infected with a disease that could kill me and/or passing it on to many others who could also be killed

So I'm not going to the office, pubs etc. anymore.

Simple.

[fulhamben]

The grand national has been cancelled

[Mince n Tatties]

Boat Race gone😵

[fulhamben]

Right this is getting Damn silly now. My local is shutting down on Friday.

[Woolly Mammoth]

Boat Race gone😵

  SUNK

[The Rational Fan]

"what sort of advice is that"

Sensible advice which allows for sensible responses. So much more mature and respectful of individuals than what we are seeing in most other countries.

Agreed

The way I interpret it, today I was advised that if I carry on going to the office, pubs etc, I risk getting infected with a disease that could kill me and/or passing it on to many others who could also be killed

So I'm not going to the office, pubs etc. anymore.

Simple.

The problem is this disease is spreading exponential, which means the time it takes to increase the worldwide deaths from 1 per day to 1,000 per day (taking about 3 months) is the same time it takes to increase from 1,000 per day to 1,000,000 per day (say another 3 months). We cannot let 1,000,000 people per day die by late June, the other truth their is little point banning pubs and not banning non-essential work outside the house. Total lockdown is the only solution, Wuhan style not Milan style.

[toshes mate]

The crucial actions required within the UK plan is avoidance of non-essential high risk contact but there is a certain naivety at work because we do not know where the high risks are.  What if a member of your household has the virus without symptoms, has infected everybody else, and you are all feeling okay but infecting others everywhere you go.  The epidemiologist who has been advising the WHO has told people that the virus is carried in the air as an aerosol and needs no special delivery other than the infected person breathing out.  The experts say a safe distance is 1 to 2 metres which is a pretty wide metric, but the crucial missing piece of the jigsaw is whether or not infection plus survival equals immunity.  The Government talks of herd immunity to hold the rate of infection back without knowing anything more about this virus than any other nation knows.  And, as we testing fewer people than many other nations, we are unlikely to learn very much more than how overstretched our NHS is, something we have known about for many years.

[fulhamben]

"what sort of advice is that"

Sensible advice which allows for sensible responses. So much more mature and respectful of individuals than what we are seeing in most other countries.

Agreed

The way I interpret it, today I was advised that if I carry on going to the office, pubs etc, I risk getting infected with a disease that could kill me and/or passing it on to many others who could also be killed

So I'm not going to the office, pubs etc. anymore.

Simple.

The problem is this disease is spreading exponential, which means the time it takes to increase the worldwide deaths from 1 per day to 1,000 per day (taking about 3 months) is the same time it takes to increase from 1,000 per day to 1,000,000 per day (say another 3 months). We cannot let 1,000,000 people per day die by late June, the other truth their is little point banning pubs and not banning non-essential work outside the house. Total lockdown is the only solution, Wuhan style not Milan style.

wuhan style? Now I'm going to be quite kind here as the vast majority wouldn't have seen some of the things that actually happened in Wuhan, but that is not plan that we want to emulate.

[toshes mate]

There is something quite interesting about the data for the Diamond Princess Cruise ship, which is really a limited experience of a Covid-19 in lockdown after an outbreak of infections.   The age groups of passengers show a very low sample of young people aged less than twenty years, and a very high sample of people aged sixty years or older.  The lowest non-infection rate percentage was around 75% for people aged eighty years or older with all other age groups better than that with an overall average of 82.7 to 83.9 percent who did not contract the disease. Note that there was no marked difference between young and old age infection rates and the 60-69 age group stayed slightly healthier than did the teenagers.

Slightly less than half the passengers who were infected showed no symptoms.   None of the children tested positive had symptoms with the younger and older passengers showing as similarly asymptomatic in percentage terms.   Of the fatalities all seven were aged seventy or older.  The infection fatality rate ranged from 0.38 to 2.7% an average of 1.2% (too small a sample for certainty).

Meanwhile away from the lockdown on a ship, China is looking at deaths per million population in the lower twenties, while Italy is currently showing a per million population rate in the lower one hundred and twenties and rising.   

Food for thought, perhaps.     

[Plodder]

"what sort of advice is that"

Sensible advice which allows for sensible responses. So much more mature and respectful of individuals than what we are seeing in most other countries.

Agreed

The way I interpret it, today I was advised that if I carry on going to the office, pubs etc, I risk getting infected with a disease that could kill me and/or passing it on to many others who could also be killed

So I'm not going to the office, pubs etc. anymore.

Simple.

The problem is this disease is spreading exponential, which means the time it takes to increase the worldwide deaths from 1 per day to 1,000 per day (taking about 3 months) is the same time it takes to increase from 1,000 per day to 1,000,000 per day (say another 3 months). We cannot let 1,000,000 people per day die by late June, the other truth their is little point banning pubs and not banning non-essential work outside the house. Total lockdown is the only solution, Wuhan style not Milan style.

There are no easy or good solutions, and no one can be certain of anything. However, in my judgement as thigs stand, the damage to individuals and societies resulting from a "total lockdown Wuhan style" would be far, far greater than any damage the virus itself could cause. Mass poverty, homelessness and rocketing domestic violence (to take just three consequences) should not be underestimated. My hope is that after a month or so of this, people will start to see the level of misery and despair lockdown causes and be forced to answer uncomfortable and difficult questions.

[Mince n Tatties]

All horse racing stopped from tomorrow, Cineworld and other cinemas across the country to shut.
Some towns now seeing lots of their pubs closing.