Summer Silly Season Transfer Thread 2024

[filham]

Good to see us standing our ground, gone are the days when Spurs only had to wave a few loose notes under our noses and we would roll over.
Never-the-less I hope the Palhinha matter is sorted soon , we don't want it to rattle on until window closing week.

[jayffc]

Kalvin Philips went to City for €50m and he's absolute shite so I'd expect no less than £55m-£60m for Joao.

Kalvin Phillips was 3 years younger (26) at the time than Palhinha will be when the season starts and was a very highly rated up-and-comer.

As I put on the original thread on Palhinhas market value:

"When I put my rational brain on and try to think of another 29+ year old CDM who's gone for anything north of £40m before. I can only think of a handful.

Casemiro billed as one of if not THE best CDM in the world at the time went to Utd from Madrid for £60m at 30 years old

Fabinho went for 40m from Liverpool at 30 - but he moved to Saudi...so there's that - they overpaid.

Paulinho transferred from Barcelona to Guangzhou Evergrande for £42 million in 2018 at the age of 30.

Nemanja Matic - Moved from Chelsea to Manchester United for £40 million in 2017 at 28 years old

Other than that I can't think of many more?

And the thing all these had was prior proof of performing at a high level in the Champions League...and/or they moved to somewhere that overpaid (china and Saudi)

Now sure - Declan Rice went for over 100m but he was 24.
Caicedo also went for tons - but he was 21!
And sure - inflation etc. But....

In reality - whilst he might be worth over 50m to us in our minds, there isn't much precedent for that sort of fee being charged for someone in the CDM role at 29 and up - and basically none I can think of who hasn't been a regular champs league player before.

We did well to get 55m for him last year - this year anything above 45m + potential add-ons would still be very good market value historically. Even 40m would be more than most CDMs his age go for. We might not like it, we might all want more, and heck, we can choose to keep him if we don't want to sell for that amount. But anywhere between 40-50 would still be historically speaking ,a good amount still.

I disagree, any transfer more than 2 years ago is irrelevant. Prices have significantly increased over the last 5 years, also Palhinha looks like the kind of player that will perform at this level deep into his 30s.

Bayern Munich set the price last summer around £60m, so to come in £15m lighter after one season is too much of a drop.

I think £50m with aggressive add-ons of £5m is fair and I think they'll actually do that.

And if he stays, then even better, I would prefer him to stay for the next 5 years and we add players around him to help challenge for a top 7 place

You can disagree but it doesnt change the fact its seemingly never happened, even in the last 2 years, for CDMs his age not being signed from regular champs league clubs.

Fwiw, According to the ol chatgpt regarding price changes for players over 29 the last 2 years:

For players over the age of 29, football transfer prices have not experienced the same level of inflation as those for younger players. While the overall market has seen significant increases, the inflation rate for players aged 30 or over has been notably lower. Over the past decade, the annual inflation rate for transfer prices of players in this age group has averaged only 3.6%, which is substantially less compared to younger age groups [[❞]](https://football-observatory.com/IMG/sites/mr/mr82/en/) [[❞]](https://football-observatory.com/Inflation-in-the-football-players-transfer-market).

Additionally, the post-pandemic period saw the biggest deflation for players over 29. Clubs are increasingly focusing on younger talent, often seen as better investments for the future

In conclusion, while the football transfer market as a whole has seen rising prices, players over 29 have not experienced the same level of price inflation, reflecting a market preference for younger talent.
-------

So make of that what you will.


Also It was widely reported as £55m not 60m at the time and even this year the reports ive seen have referred to us saying we want that  same 55 (though this youd think would just be high ball tactics)

As I say what I or we'd want or think about his 'potential' ability to maintain form at an older age, doesn't change the reality that in the context of all former transfer prices, for a player in Palhinhas position (29, cdm, not playing for a champs league club for years or even being an established national team starter ) £40-50m range would be considered very high, and therefore, really not bad business.

Again. Id love for us to hold out for more or keep him if we're really not happy but just looking objectively at the facts here.

I expect we'd settle for £45m plus £5m in bonuses, so long as they were easily achievable.

Yeh Im inclined to agree and as I say - History suggests we'll have done well for ourselves in that case. 2 great seasons out of him, solidified in the prem, and selling a player heading into the tail end of his career for around 2.5x what we paid for him. Assuming that money then goes into pushing on our quality in multiple positions then that's a pretty damn good outcome given the player hasn't exactly expressed his will to retire at Fulham and is openly pushing for a move.

Again, I'd love for us to keep him if they don't offer that or the club feel it's not enough, alright fair enough. But I'd be surprised to see him still here come the new season.

[jayffc]

Good to see us standing our ground, gone are the days when Spurs only had to wave a few loose notes under our noses and we would roll over.
Never-the-less I hope the Palhinha matter is sorted soon , we don't want it to rattle on until window closing week.

Looks like that'll be up to Bayern or any other club interested. Pay around 45m+ and I think we'd wrap it up and bring in a replacement. But the later they leave it the more chance he isn't sold I think, because it reduces our chance of tying up our own CDM deal.

[Harbord]

I think TK missed a trick by not including a release clause in the contract he signed after last year's debacle.
There would be no arguing now if that had been done.

[Bassey the warrior]

I think TK missed a trick by not including a release clause in the contract he signed after last year's debacle.
There would be no arguing now if that had been done.

Why would there be no arguing? Bayern are perennial cheapskates, who rely on unsettling the players to negotiate down the price.

[F(f)CUK]

I think TK missed a trick by not including a release clause in the contract he signed after last year's debacle.
There would be no arguing now if that had been done.

Dembele went on a release clause on deadline day. Completely stuffed us. Would rather get a few million less and have time to spend it. Mind you it is not my money.

[Thames Bank 1]

I hope this gets sorted soon, he wants to leave and as much as he has been great for us, will he still have the same impact as he did last season, as I bet he got told he can go

[alfie]

I hope this gets sorted soon, he wants to leave and as much as he has been great for us, will he still have the same impact as he did last season, as I bet he got told he can go

I'm sure he was told he could go, but only for the valuation that Fulham want, or as near as dammit.

[junior white]

Just seen in X (twitter) that Ben Godfrey has rejected a new deal and is available for £15 million, personally dont htink thats a bad option, cover across the back line

[Sting of the North]

I think TK missed a trick by not including a release clause in the contract he signed after last year's debacle.
There would be no arguing now if that had been done.

Of course there would be arguing. No benefit at all for us with a release clause, only downsides.

[Nero]

With Joao giving him a longer contract a higher wags means we have to pay him more to leave, we need him to put in a transfer request to save a few quid

[Sting of the North]

With Joao giving him a longer contract a higher wags means we have to pay him more to leave, we need him to put in a transfer request to save a few quid

I don't understand what you mean at all here. Why would a transfer request save us any money?

[Nero]

With Joao giving him a longer contract a higher wags means we have to pay him more to leave, we need him to put in a transfer request to save a few quid

I don't understand what you mean at all here. Why would a transfer request save us any money?

because if we sell without one he's entitled to his loyalty bonuses and we are also terminating his contract as such so we have to negotiate how much of it we have to pay up, if he request one we don't have to. Bit like different between being made redundant or resigning

[btffc]

With Joao giving him a longer contract a higher wags means we have to pay him more to leave, we need him to put in a transfer request to save a few quid

I don't understand what you mean at all here. Why would a transfer request save us any money?

because if we sell without one he's entitled to his loyalty bonuses and we are also terminating his contract as such so we have to negotiate how much of it we have to pay up, if he request one we don't have to. Bit like different between being made redundant or resigning

He didn't throw his toys out the pram when we cancelled his move last year, he carried on putting in a decent shift almost every week. If he's due a loyalty bonus for the 23/24 season, it should be paid to him. Other than that, not sure what we'd pay him. He doesn't get paid to leave.

A loyalty bonus is paid throughout the life of the contract on top of regular wages. For example, say it is a £5m loyalty bonus on a 5 year contract. Every year he would get an extra £1m just for serving his contract. If he gets sold then he is due the full remaining amount of the loyalty bonus and would be paid £4m. However, if he hands in a transfer request then he forfeits the loyalty bonus.

I don't know if everyone has one or if he does so it would depend on his contract and those details are very rarely reported.

There is also a risk that denying him a move second time would be testing his patience. There is no guarantee he would be as understanding if it happens again this Summer.

[Nero]

Bayern Munich are set to move for Everton's 22-year-old Belgium midfielder Amadou Onana after becoming frustrated in their efforts to sign Portugal midfielder Joao Palhinha, 28, from Fulham. (Liverpool Echo)

[Bassey the warrior]

Bayern Munich are set to move for Everton's 22-year-old Belgium midfielder Amadou Onana after becoming frustrated in their efforts to sign Portugal midfielder Joao Palhinha, 28, from Fulham. (Liverpool Echo)

Good.

[jayffc]

Bayern Munich are set to move for Everton's 22-year-old Belgium midfielder Amadou Onana after becoming frustrated in their efforts to sign Portugal midfielder Joao Palhinha, 28, from Fulham. (Liverpool Echo)

Good. Lets build around him.

A shame for Joao and interesting to see how he reacts and plays next year. He may feel hes missed out on a huge once in lifetime oppurtunity there even if he continues to have good form, 32 when his contract finishes with an extra 1 year club option, he gets less and less appealing with each psssing year to other top clubs unless sold at a greatly reduced price .

Tricky one marco will need a series arm round him if bayern do buy onana instead

[Bassey the warrior]

Rumour Everton are close to signing Ndidi on a free, we should be all over that.

[jayffc]

Rumour Everton are close to signing Ndidi on a free, we should be all over that.

Word from many was he'd been a bit crap but better last season in the champ and randomly his scoring and assisting stats were good last year.

Whoscored rating has him in 76th in the championship with a 6.82 rating for whatever that's worth.
Also - Missed over 50 games the last 3 seasons with injuries so there's that.

Is he a massive upgrade on Reed or Lukic enough to warrant paying what will probably be very high wages would be the question I guess, along with if he'd pass the medical.

[St Eve]

Looks like Fabio is available. Still think it would be a good move particularly if we cash in on AP