Premier League table stats and other stuff you want to throw on here.

[Woolly Mammoth]

Clearly a lot of hard work and time must go in to preparing these charts, and for that I salute you, and It may surprise you but I do read them, and I do not just pass by without looking.
Forgive me for not sharing in your undoubted enthusiasm for statistics, but I appreciate your reasons as they do tell a story and can indentify a pattern.
With regard to this latest update, and in answer to the sceptics who feel that too much water has flowed under the bridge to prevent us from falling through the trap door.
However, Progress has already been made as we have lifted ourselves off bottom spot, and can strengthen that position by winning tomorrow, which in turn could move us up another place. If we win tomorrow, it is a massive result, but that alone will not prevent us from relegation, just three more points closer. If we are to survive, we have to target every match. Winning tomorrow does not mean we can sit back and think that it does not matter if we come away from Arsenal pointless, because it's more or less expected.
That is very foolish and naive to think that we only have to beat certain teams, and others like Arsenal are a Bridge too far.
We have to try and pick up points wherever we go, good habits in every match may not always get what we want, but will certainly increase our chances in the next match.
Same as if we lose tomorrow, it's not the end of the world, it may feel like it, but we have to turn our attention to the next match, until it becomes impossible to survive, then it just becomes about pride.
To sum up, thinking that just getting three points from certain matches like Huddersfield can afford us the luxury of conceding matches like the Arsenal game is for fools, ask Claudio Ranieri, we cannot pick and choose, it never works like that.
History counts for nothing, especially in a relegation battle.
If we play well enough to achieve three points tomorrow, we then have to make sure we do it again v Arsenal, and so on.
Believe me Huddlesfield will not turn up and lie down, in many ways they will be just as hard to beat as Arsenal, because in case some people may not have noticed, we have so far only won 2 matches out of 19.
Not a very good record is it, so who are we to expect us to best Huddersfield because they struggling also.
We just have to fight for every first and second ball, and make our own luck.
Yes it's true 2 wins out of 19, and that is the best statistic of all to chew over when you evaluate our season so far.
Nonetheless, if you ask me, can we survive, my answer is yes of course we can, and we shall if the players who are selected roll their sleeves up with fire in their bellies, and sweat blood.
If after CR has exhausted all attempts to galvanise certain players.
The ones that do not, or cannot, or will not, should be kept well away from the first team and the dressing room, and not be selected on reputation, because they will get us relegated.
That is why it is important to get the right players with the experience and mentality in this forthcoming Window.

[MJG]

Cheers for the comments Wooley. Of course you should never write the big team games off, but I do because thats the direction of travel for most teams at the bottom. It also gives us a bit of a buffer in that if we get points againt them it  boinus we must use in not blowing it next game.

History doesnt  matter in a one on one game, but it can be used as I think I show, to set the targets and see what we need to do. Thats what all of the stuff I do here is really about.

[Woolly Mammoth]

Yes MJG, and please keep doing your stuff, as it's absorbing reading, and does make a lot of sense, even for the likes of me, who has only just mastered the art of smoke signals.

[RaySmith]

Good post Woolly.
Huddersfield will be a tough scrap - they gave Man U a game last  week, and were creating chances at 1-0 down, with the ManU keeper keeping them in the game. They can't score is the problem, but tomorrow could be the day they will!

There is also a lot of extra pressure on Fulham players to win this 'must win' against Hudd, who are 'crap', of course!
We hopefully will win tomorrow, but it's by means going to be easy , and  but no one should think all is lost if we  fail to win, or even lose.

We need to go again at Arsenal, with a view to getting points there, and every other game, as you say. Arsenal could prove to be an easier game, you never know.

But , as Woolly says,  we need to approach every game as a potential three points, and the manager, with his tactical nous, and players on the pitch, have to give  everything every time they take the field, and then we  have a good chance of staying up, especially with the  right reinforcements  next month.

We could even go o a run, like last season - I think things are coming together, but there will still be blips along the way, and us fans need to stay fully behind the team and  manager.

MJG's stats' forecasts actually give me hope , showing how few points should be needed to stay up, and many thanks  to him for  doing them.

[Andyb]

Love these stats! Gives me hope!

[MJG]

More half season data:
18 seasons bottom 4 teams at halfway

20th - relegated 77% more than doubled points 77%

19th - relegated 55% more than doubled points 88%

18th - relegated 50% more than doubled points 77%

17th - relegated 33% more than doubled points 72%

On average team in 19th gets 21 points second half of the season. I think we need 23 and thats been done on 8 of the last 18 seasons by the team in 19th.

[MJG]

Prediction of final table shows 35 points for 17th place


We will need...


Targets at end of each month based on losing every game to big 6


Bottom 7 Vs everyone

[Statto]

Prediction of final table shows 35 points for 17th place

I presume we're currently predicted to be in the bottom 3 in that table.
So if we finish higher, it will be at the expense of the team currently projected to finish 17th with 35 pts, actually finishing 18th and going down
So with our goal difference, presumably we really need to get 36 pts

[MJG]

Prediction of final table shows 35 points for 17th place

I presume we're currently predicted to be in the bottom 3 in that table.
So if we finish higher, it will be at the expense of the team currently projected to finish 17th with 35 pts, actually finishing 18th and going down
So with our goal difference, presumably we really need to get 36 pts

not really. I'm not predicting specific teams only positions and points. A team will end 17th on 35, be that Fulham or Cardiff or someone else it doesn't matter really, the key is 17th and 35.(which I expect to drop back to 34 within a game or two.

[Statto]

Prediction of final table shows 35 points for 17th place

I presume we're currently predicted to be in the bottom 3 in that table.
So if we finish higher, it will be at the expense of the team currently projected to finish 17th with 35 pts, actually finishing 18th and going down
So with our goal difference, presumably we really need to get 36 pts

not really. I'm not predicting specific teams only positions and points. A team will end 17th on 35, be that Fulham or Cardiff or someone else it doesn't matter really, the key is 17th and 35.(which I expect to drop back to 34 within a game or two.

So how is the prediction calculated?

[MJG]

Prediction of final table shows 35 points for 17th place

I presume we're currently predicted to be in the bottom 3 in that table.
So if we finish higher, it will be at the expense of the team currently projected to finish 17th with 35 pts, actually finishing 18th and going down
So with our goal difference, presumably we really need to get 36 pts

not really. I'm not predicting specific teams only positions and points. A team will end 17th on 35, be that Fulham or Cardiff or someone else it doesn't matter really, the key is 17th and 35.(which I expect to drop back to 34 within a game or two.

So how is the prediction calculated?

combinations of form, historic dsta and current standings.

[MJG]

One of those over complicated (according to Statto) prediction tables for bottom positions.


Where we need to be at end of each month to reach 35


Bottom 7 Vs everyone.

[MJG]

Using the projection im working on I have gone back to game 22 in 2008 (The great escape year) and run it from there to get this:



16 & 17 come out spot on, 18th is one point less than projected and 19 and 20 are out by 6 & 7 each.
Im one point out on the total number of points the 5 teams scored so while my error rate for a position is 1 point plus or minus it come out correct in the key position of 17th.

As I have said below its a work in progress and far from perfect, but Im happy to put money on 17th this year being 34 or 35 points at this stage.

As I have always said, this is not about the team in  18th or 19th or wherever, its about positions and points which change only a little over the longer period.

[toshes mate]

I think the points required at the end of the season is pretty easy to calculate if you know exactly how many points the team in eighteenth place is going to achieve.  However, in the meantime, that required points total is going to fluctuate throughout each and every game cycle, meaning we should be looking at a points total that should guarantee safety, shocks apart, say 38 or better.  To get anywhere near that at this time already requires us to perform like a mid-table side and that means getting points from games we probably were not expecting to get points from.  We should start by pulling off a 'shock' next Sunday which is also a 4pm kick-off (and not an early kick-off which always seem in my view to be harder work for us).   From my perspective next Sunday could be our turning point and I really hope it turns out that way.   

[Statto]

Using the projection im working on I have gone back to game 22 in 2008 (The great escape year) and run it from there to get this:



16 & 17 come out spot on, 18th is one point less than projected and 19 and 20 are out by 6 & 7 each.
Im one point out on the total number of points the 5 teams scored so while my error rate for a position is 1 point plus or minus it come out correct in the key position of 17th.

As I have said below its a work in progress and far from perfect, but Im happy to put money on 17th this year being 34 or 35 points at this stage.

As I have always said, this is not about the team in  18th or 19th or wherever, its about positions and points which change only a little over the longer period.

As you say, two of the predictions were 6-7 pts off there.
I was not having a dig, just pointing out that the current "projections" assume the teams around us will do better over the rest of the season than they have up to now, which I accept is possible, perhaps even likely, but based on the errors just mentioned, clearly still far from certain.
And on a thread about whether we "capitulate" or keep trying, I don't think we need to burden ourselves with gloomy projections when they've clearly only a limited chance of being correct.
Maybe this time around it will be 17th requiring 6-7pts less than you project!

[MJG]

Using the projection im working on I have gone back to game 22 in 2008 (The great escape year) and run it from there to get this:



16 & 17 come out spot on, 18th is one point less than projected and 19 and 20 are out by 6 & 7 each.
Im one point out on the total number of points the 5 teams scored so while my error rate for a position is 1 point plus or minus it come out correct in the key position of 17th.

As I have said below its a work in progress and far from perfect, but Im happy to put money on 17th this year being 34 or 35 points at this stage.

As I have always said, this is not about the team in  18th or 19th or wherever, its about positions and points which change only a little over the longer period.

As you say, two of the predictions were 6-7 pts off there.
I was not having a dig, just pointing out that the current "projections" assume the teams around us will do better over the rest of the season than they have up to now, which I accept is possible, perhaps even likely, but based on the errors just mentioned, clearly still far from certain.
And on a thread about whether we "capitulate" or keep trying, I don't think we need to burden ourselves with gloomy projections when they've clearly only a limited chance of being correct.
Maybe this time around it will be 17th requiring 6-7pts less than you project!

Ive actually run it across many season and happy with 4 out of 5, its the bottom position that give me the biggest issue. 19 next but on this one it was well out.
What im trying to do is show that im fairly happy with what im getting but still work to do.

EDIT: Id also add that data shows teams do better in second half of the season in the lower reaches anyway.

[MJG]

I think the points required at the end of the season is pretty easy to calculate if you know exactly how many points the team in eighteenth place is going to achieve.  However, in the meantime, that required points total is going to fluctuate throughout each and every game cycle, meaning we should be looking at a points total that should guarantee safety, shocks apart, say 38 or better.  To get anywhere near that at this time already requires us to perform like a mid-table side and that means getting points from games we probably were not expecting to get points from.  We should start by pulling off a 'shock' next Sunday which is also a 4pm kick-off (and not an early kick-off which always seem in my view to be harder work for us).   From my perspective next Sunday could be our turning point and I really hope it turns out that way.

It does game by game change and in the 3 or 4 years I have done things like this I have always said its a snapshot of where we are at that time. for example here is the game by game figures this year which show a move from 33 to 35 so the trend is up and as you say the higer targets are better,

the trend over all the years of the PL is down on whats required for 17th.

[MJG]

Full table prediction. 17th now 36 points


We need to do the following...


Monthly target


Bottom 7


FulllTable PPG projections


Year on Year table


Gaps, Projections and rolling form

[MJG]

In a nutshell for us to stay up....
if its 33 points then we need to play like the team in 13th place, if its 36 points we need to be like the team in 7th for the rest of the season.

[MJG]

Games we need to win...
Palace
Southampton
Cardiff
Newcastle

This gives us 26 points.

Games we will lose...
Man Utd
Liverpool
Man City
Chelsea
West Ham because we just will not win there

Needs 10 points from...
Brighton
Leicester
Watford
Everton
Bournemouth
Wolves