Coronavirus Thread / New / Old / Merged

[Statto]

the government have handled this appallingly, from start to finish and have contributed through, at best incompetence and/or arrogance or, at worst, wilful negligence, towards the shockingly high number of deaths and death of frontline care staff

I'm probably flogging a dead horse here but... anything specific?

:dead horse:

[FFC1987]

Surely now, no one could deny or overlook what's been going on? Oh. I see. Okay...

As a supplement to my current routine of sitting in my study all day pretending to work remotely, I'd love nothing more than a thoughtful discussion of "what's been going on"

But that would involve you articulating something specific and reasoned, with reference to facts and data. Some numbers, dates, direct quotes, coherent explanation, independent analysis... that sort of thing. Which hasn't been your forte thus far.

As you rightly point out; numbers, dates, direct quotes, coherent explanation and analysis are not really my forte. So I simply draw your attention to articles in the publications referenced in my previous post. They should contain all you need (if read with an open mind).

Having read your last few posts, you've linked articles, but not really an opinion. Whats the actual point being argued here?

Really? You've not looked at enough of my posts then. My point was (and it was made prior to this recent run of articles saying the same thing) that the government have handled this appallingly, from start to finish and have contributed through, at best incompetence and/or arrogance or, at worst, wilful negligence, towards the shockingly high number of deaths and death of frontline care staff.

I didn't want to go down this route and point it out so obviously as it may be provocative still for some, but you asked.

I have, but having left this discussion after it got heated last time, I think some of it has gone slightly awry and didn't make sense to me and thought I'd try and and ask, politely, whats specifically being argued here. I don't think what you said is beyond the pale, or really, too provocative compared to posts that are now gone. It's probably fair that things have been done, badly, too slowly, and poorly coordinated but i'm sure the government have done good things too. I still reserve judgement till, after all this, a thorough postmortem will be done and we'll see much more, good and bad.I think the only thing I'd add is, its abundantly clear is, the NHS hasn't had the funding or the management it deserves and I hope this will be our main priority going forward.

Stay safe everyone and be nice, its hard enough as it is.     

[GloucesterWhite]

Surely now, no one could deny or overlook what's been going on? Oh. I see. Okay...

As a supplement to my current routine of sitting in my study all day pretending to work remotely, I'd love nothing more than a thoughtful discussion of "what's been going on"

But that would involve you articulating something specific and reasoned, with reference to facts and data. Some numbers, dates, direct quotes, coherent explanation, independent analysis... that sort of thing. Which hasn't been your forte thus far.

As you rightly point out; numbers, dates, direct quotes, coherent explanation and analysis are not really my forte. So I simply draw your attention to articles in the publications referenced in my previous post. They should contain all you need (if read with an open mind).

Having read your last few posts, you've linked articles, but not really an opinion. Whats the actual point being argued here?

Really? You've not looked at enough of my posts then. My point was (and it was made prior to this recent run of articles saying the same thing) that the government have handled this appallingly, from start to finish and have contributed through, at best incompetence and/or arrogance or, at worst, wilful negligence, towards the shockingly high number of deaths and death of frontline care staff.

I didn't want to go down this route and point it out so obviously as it may be provocative still for some, but you asked.

I had intended to keep stum on this thread, but you talk utter rubbish. The Sunday Times article is so full of inaccuracies it is a disgrace to that newspaper.

Point 1: it is not the governments job to order PPE for the NHS, the NHS itself is the procurement body. Similarly, care homes should be ordering kit themselves, not waiting for the government to dish it out. NHS nurses and doctors deserve every praise, the NHS chief bureaucrats should be sacked when this is all over. The same bureaucrats that withheld blood samples from private firms who want to work on tests, and who also couldn't be bothered to even reply to companies offering equipment and help; and there are several prototype ventilators waiting weeks for 'approval'.

Point 2: although I buy the ST I didn't read the article as I knew it was a load of clowns who thought now what can we criticise the government for in their handling of a crisis unprecedented in 300 years. I got it out a few minutes ago and skimmed through it: just oine example: the writers accuse the government of selling a load of equipment to China - it wasn't the government it was the company that makes the stuff.


Point 3: Why is anyone taking Prof Ferguson seriously? Take a look at his track record: BSE, his forecast 150k dead, actual deaths 200; bird flu, his forecast 200 million deaths, actual deaths 450. The man's a joke, but of course he feeds certain journalists just the ammunition they want.

Point 4: most COBRA meetings do not include the PM. But hey, let's just say he's lazy for not attending every one.

Point 5: there's even an attempt to blame this on Brexit!!! It can only be a matter of time before the BBC/Guardian (same thing, different media) and other diehard Remainers start calling for another referendum now that so many old people have died!!!

[ByTheRiver]

Surely now, no one could deny or overlook what's been going on? Oh. I see. Okay...

As a supplement to my current routine of sitting in my study all day pretending to work remotely, I'd love nothing more than a thoughtful discussion of "what's been going on"

But that would involve you articulating something specific and reasoned, with reference to facts and data. Some numbers, dates, direct quotes, coherent explanation, independent analysis... that sort of thing. Which hasn't been your forte thus far.

As you rightly point out; numbers, dates, direct quotes, coherent explanation and analysis are not really my forte. So I simply draw your attention to articles in the publications referenced in my previous post. They should contain all you need (if read with an open mind).

Having read your last few posts, you've linked articles, but not really an opinion. Whats the actual point being argued here?

Really? You've not looked at enough of my posts then. My point was (and it was made prior to this recent run of articles saying the same thing) that the government have handled this appallingly, from start to finish and have contributed through, at best incompetence and/or arrogance or, at worst, wilful negligence, towards the shockingly high number of deaths and death of frontline care staff.

I didn't want to go down this route and point it out so obviously as it may be provocative still for some, but you asked.

I have, but having left this discussion after it got heated last time, I think some of it has gone slightly awry and didn't make sense to me and thought I'd try and and ask, politely, whats specifically being argued here. I don't think what you said is beyond the pale, or really, too provocative compared to posts that are now gone. It's probably fair that things have been done, badly, too slowly, and poorly coordinated but i'm sure the government have done good things too. I still reserve judgement till, after all this, a thorough postmortem will be done and we'll see much more, good and bad.I think the only thing I'd add is, its abundantly clear is, the NHS hasn't had the funding or the management it deserves and I hope this will be our main priority going forward.

Stay safe everyone and be nice, its hard enough as it is.     

:) I left off the NHS part, I think that's where it got heated and I got too emotionally involved last time. I also left it and backed out for a while. Only coming back in today re. Sunday Times. But you are right about that. 100%.


Hope you and yours stay safe and well. Enjoy your evening.

[ByTheRiver]

Now, Gloucester White, I will ignore most of your post - especially point 1 about the NHS and PPE as it so unbelievably wrong and wide of the mark, that I fear you won't entertain any rationale. Also because I made a promise to myself not to be get emotionally involved on here any more. But if you are fine with those very same NHS staff dying, literally dying, whilst trying to save us, solely down to not having enough PPE and this being entirely the fault of the government but making excuses for them, then cool. That's your look out. I'll merely say:

Point 2: although I buy the ST I didn't read the article

So you've not read the article, let alone all the others mentioned that were put together by completely independent, apolitical, independent bodies, but you're quite sure its boll***s? Right. Ooookay. Ahem. Read the articles. This is what is actually happening. This is not football where you blindly defend one side. This is peoples lives.

Also Point 2: I knew it was a load of clowns who thought now what can we criticise the government for in their handling of a crisis unprecedented in 300 years.

Point 4: most COBRA meetings do not include the PM. But hey, let's just say he's lazy for not attending every one.

These two points rather contradict themselves, don't they? If it is a crisis unprecedented in 300 years, don't you rather think he should have been there? Or did he have something more important to do at the weekend? That's without going into the point that COBRA meetings are rarely called and only used in times of absolute emergency so, historically speaking, yes the PM is usually there. As, you know, that is literally their job.

Also, he and they had the advantage of a few weeks head start on many countries and the advantage of their advice/experiences. They choose not to heed it? Why, or the possible reasons why, are covered in said articles. Either way, incredibly poor. It didn't 'come out of nowhere', caught everyone by surprise, and they did the best they can off the cuff. That would be one fairly passable excuse if so. Again read the articles, and you will know this.

Point 3: Why is anyone taking Prof Ferguson seriously? Take a look at his track record: BSE, his forecast 150k dead, actual deaths 200; bird flu, his forecast 200 million deaths, actual deaths 450. The man's a joke, but of course he feeds certain journalists just the ammunition they want.

It's not just Prof Ferguson. Open your eyes. Read some articles that don't already fit your narrative and then decide. If you decide without even looking at anything that you don't think will fit your side, or reading something having already picked a side, you aren't really looking at anything. So what are you basing your opinions on exactly?

For the same reason I won't be reading any more of your posts.

[GloucesterWhite]

Couldn't resist one more, but promise it's the last!

You seem to be addicted to newspaper articles so read the leader in today's Telegraph regarding my point about the NHS being the procurement body. Or maybe you only want to quote newspapers that support your rants? Who exactly do you think orders PPE? MPs? Civil servants? No, it's the NHS! The government has now got involved because the NHS are incompetent - and before you start I'm referring to the bureaucrats not the nurses or doctors.

[ByTheRiver]

Couldn't resist one more, but promise it's the last!

You seem to be addicted to newspaper articles so read the leader in today's Telegraph regarding my point about the NHS being the procurement body. Or maybe you only want to quote newspapers that support your rants? Who exactly do you think orders PPE? MPs? Civil servants? No, it's the NHS! The government has now got involved because the NHS are incompetent - and before you start I'm referring to the bureaucrats not the nurses and doctors.

I won't bother with the rest of your reply.

I... I... I'm not sure where to even begin. The bureaucrats, as you so put it, are magicians. Deserving of every bit as much praise as the frontline staff for saving the governments skin and somehow keeping the NHS going. Certainly in response to this. Have a look at the reports from 2006 when pandemic response plans were tested and we were, to quote, 'the envy of the world' in our actions and resources. Look again at the 2016 outcome, following over half a decade of austerity cuts and underfunding and it's a massive red warning. Was any action taken based on that? No sir, it was not. And that is the very least of the complaints in a very long list!

It's not unpatriotic to ask questions of our government, it's the opposite. It shouldn't be brushed away or shut down. Otherwise, where would we end up? History (and hell, even a couple modern day!) has examples of that...

[GloucesterWhite]

Couldn't resist one more, but promise it's the last!

You seem to be addicted to newspaper articles so read the leader in today's Telegraph regarding my point about the NHS being the procurement body. Or maybe you only want to quote newspapers that support your rants? Who exactly do you think orders PPE? MPs? Civil servants? No, it's the NHS! The government has now got involved because the NHS are incompetent - and before you start I'm referring to the bureaucrats not the nurses and doctors.

I won't bother with the rest of your reply.

I... I... I'm not sure where to even begin. The bureaucrats, as you so put it, are magicians. Deserving of every bit as much praise as the frontline staff for saving the governments skin and somehow keeping the NHS going. Certainly in response to this. Have a look at the reports from 2006 when pandemic response plans were tested and we were, to quote, 'the envy of the world' in our actions and resources. Look again at the 2016 outcome, following over half a decade of austerity cuts and underfunding and it's a massive red warning. Was any action taken based on that? No sir, it was not. And that is the very least of the complaints in a very long list!

It's not unpatriotic to ask questions of our government, it's the opposite. It shouldn't be brushed away or shut down. Otherwise, where would we end up? History (and hell, even a couple modern day!) has examples of that...

Magicians? Hilarious. The Telegraph is behind a firewall so I suppose you have an excuse not to read another slant on this. Here's the relevant bit:
"Responsibility for the failure to stockpile protective equipment or obtain enough respirators must lie with the NHS, since it is the procurement body. Its managers should not wait around to be instructed by Government ministers about what is needed and or for blame then to be attached to others when the shortcomings become apparent."

You haven't answered my question: who is responsible for ordering PPE?

Agree with your last para. But criticism should be balanced and realistic.

[Clebi]

You say 0.37%. Of those infected or the total population? New York City has 8.77 million inhabitants and as of now 14,286 dead. That is 0.16% of the total population and we are only at the crest of the epidemic. Much more to come. So seems we are NOT talking about 0.37% of those infected that will die.

I believe the death toll you've quoted is for New York state (not only the city) which has a population of 20m. A 0.37% mortality rate among those infected and 14k deaths would imply that  around 4m people, or 1 in 5 people in the state, have now been infected. I think that quite conceivable. FWIW I believe New York is by some distance the worst affected region in the developed world, proportionately.

In response to the last part of your post and some other posts above, I've not made any political or ethical points (although FWIW I think Plodder makes some good points) or disputed that people should be fearful. But a lot of the most extreme fearmongering is disconnected from the facts and numbers, (and often a little politically-motivated) and I don't see how that sort of talk can do anything positive.

You believe wrong. I believe it is actually important to fact check before making statements, so here are the facts as of now, re. NY State and NY City (i.e. Manhattan, Queens, the Bronx, Brooklyn and Staten Island).
NYS 18,298 dead and 248,431 cases
NYC 14,451 dead and 138,700 cases
Yes, NY is among the most affected areas in the world, probably due to the population density, but it could be much worse. Lockdown and social distancing has been at least moderately successful as the outbreak seems to have plateaued.  What I am saying is that it is ludicrous to now suggest, when social distancing is working, that it is not really needed because the spread "doesn't look so bad". I am fully aware that this is an economic disaster that will likely bring with it a recession that makes 2008-2009 look like chocolate cake. If anything I expect a new Great Depression, and people pushing for a relaxation in control measures will make that MORE likely because the virus spread will just pick up again, forcing us to renew the lock down. This is a complete disaster and I can only suggest that all those who think we should not be limiting business activity and social interaction between people consider whether they are prepared to live, in their own city, with the type of health care system collapse as the one we saw in Northern Italy and Madrid, to mention but two examples.
Look, I am salesman with a large sales territory that I cannot cover now. I will lose business (not to competitors as they are in the same boat, but to reduced economic activity). My savings and my pension will lose in value and I may even end up losing my job while my son who graduated from Uni will find it hard as hell to find a job for years. But I know that I am still one of the lucky ones as I still have a job, have savings and can afford to just hunker down. I look at the people who work(ed) in service industries and live hand to mouth such as the immigrant community who tends to live of day labor, gardening, cleaning, dish washing etc. with no access to relief funds; the refugees from Venezuela living on the streets across Latin America or from Syria in cramped camps etc. and my heart goes out to all of them. This is mayhem and the "medicine" will kill more people than the virus. So there is NOTHING I want more than "getting back to business" but a premature opening up would be tremendously counterproductive as then you just increase the damages BOTH from the "medicine" and the virus.

[Statto]

You believe wrong. I believe it is actually important to fact check before making statements, so here are the facts as of now, re. NY State and NY City (i.e. Manhattan, Queens, the Bronx, Brooklyn and Staten Island).
NYS 18,298 dead and 248,431 cases
NYC 14,451 dead and 138,700 cases

Could you share the source for that?
The NY Times coverage of Cuomo's latest press conference here says "Deaths statewide: down for the sixth straight day, to 478, bringing the total number of deaths to 14,347."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html

Nothing in the rest of your post appears to relate to anything I said and I'm trying to avoid political, ethical and generally opinion-based debates so I've not responded to that.

[Statto]

FWIW this is the German antibodies testing study which indicated 14% of people in one German town had been infected with coronavirus and the true mortality rate was likely around 0.37%
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

Cuomo has just announced that they're going to carry out the same exercise in New York so we'll see what that shows soon
https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-statewide-antibody-testing-survey-will

[FFC1987]

FWIW this is the German antibodies testing study which indicated 14% of people in one German town had been infected with coronavirus and the true mortality rate was likely around 0.37%
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

Cuomo has just announced that they're going to carry out the same exercise in New York so we'll see what that shows soon
https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-statewide-antibody-testing-survey-will

Just so we're clear, I did say '1% or less' as I know it was marginal but that's still a lot of people to consider.

[F(f)CUK]

For those moaning about being in lockdown, spare a thought for people in certain other countries. Speaking to colleagues in my company they tell me how there are lengthy jail sentences for people breaking the lockdown in Jordan. Whilst in South Africa they put a yellow ribbon out the window to signify that the household has no food. The govt has banned alcohol and cigarettes. Obviously the black market is buoyant.

[The Rational Fan]

I completely disagree with your logic that "the lockdown should end", because the "official statistics are wrong"

(1) I didn't say "the lockdown should end"
(2) I didn't say the "official statistics are wrong". The "official statistics" are for the number of hospitalisations and deaths, which is a completely different metric to the mortality rate of the disease. No one involved in compiling and publishing those stats is holding them out as the latter. It's like having a debate about how many Fulham fans there are worldwide and you saying the "official statistic" is 1,200 because that's how many we took to Bristol away last month.

I am sorry about misinterpreting what you were trying to say. It seems you think the UK Offical Statistics don't represent anything about immunity (which seems most experts agree with you on) but at the moment we only know that those that test positive to covid-19 and recovered have some herd immunity. We do not know the immunity of those that developed antibodies without being positive to detectable levels of covid-19. So current, Uk statistics point to almost the worst-case scenario.

In other words, the UK Government doesn't know that the deaths / people immune (which german experts estimate maybe 0.37%) and deaths / recovered person (which WHO official statistic is 21%) aren't the same. Those that have antibodies, but haven't fallen sick may still catch the illiness. The real question is how many people have herd immunity? UK Offical statistics provide no answer and WHO Offical Statistics say >650,000 worldwide (barely any herd immunity so far).

Essentially an immune person is a recovered person that didn't get any symptoms including potentially detectable levels of covid-19. The worst-case statistics could determine that total lockdown until eraducation of the illness is the best path forward, even though such a path would be truly terrifying in terms of economic, civil order impacts and massive non-covid-19 deaths. Until, we know better with some best guesses UK statistics we must avoid the worst-case scenario, which is improbable but is not negligible and is horrific.

Most importantly, the UK has no official statistics to really determine the death rate of the illness (ie. deaths / people immune), which is one of the most important statistics in terms of ending lockdown (or having a much more severe lockdown). I would have thought that not having such statistics is the number one mistake of the UK government (even if hard to do) and should be the number one priority of the UK government to fix. The only such WHO offical statistic we do have is the 21% death rate (i.e. deaths / recovered) that even WHO says not to trust (estimating closer to 3.5%).

[Milo]

Trying to keep the thread alive but having to edit quite a few posts that have boiled over.

Please try to keep civil.

[I Ronic]

Trying to keep the thread alive but having to edit quite a few posts that have boiled over.

Please try to keep civil.

I started this thread on the 1st of March. With a question about how the virus might affect football. Since then it's morphed into something quite different. Much like threads on Fulham's chances of being promoted there's  alot of using stats to back up assumptions and like those threads civility goes out of the window and there's a bit of name calling. However Ibe learned much from the information that has come up and its lead me to do a bit of follow up reading.
So I say this with every respect to the mods and the jobs you do keeping things moving along. Locking an interesting thread seems a bit heavy handed. When you can suspend a poster for a period of time, because they've broken the common rules of politeness and respect.

[Peabody]

My first contribution to this thread. Why not be grateful that you all are still able to write your opinions on this subject, that you are still able to be isolated and be able to work from home, that you are able to go out and take your daily exercise, that you are still able to struggle to find a food shopping slot. We all have so much to be grateful for. There will be more worry about when this evil virus has left us but in the meantime, let's just celebrate that we have so far, avoided getting the virus and long may that continue.

[davew]

My first contribution to this thread. Why not be grateful that you all are still able to write your opinions on this subject, that you are still able to be isolated and be able to work from home, that you are able to go out and take your daily exercise, that you are still able to struggle to find a food shopping slot. We all have so much to be grateful for. There will be more worry about when this evil virus has left us but in the meantime, let's just celebrate that we have so far, avoided getting the virus and long may that continue.

+1. well said Peabody!

[Woolly Mammoth]

My first contribution to this thread. Why not be grateful that you all are still able to write your opinions on this subject, that you are still able to be isolated and be able to work from home, that you are able to go out and take your daily exercise, that you are still able to struggle to find a food shopping slot. We all have so much to be grateful for. There will be more worry about when this evil virus has left us but in the meantime, let's just celebrate that we have so far, avoided getting the virus and long may that continue.

+1. well said Peabody!

and so say all of us, a timely reminder ➕2️⃣

[Southdowns White]

From a personal point of view, one conclusion we can all come to is there is too much pointless journalism, journalists on location all over the place reporting and repeating statements just announced by the main news presenter. Wall to wall news going over the same points, for days until something else happens to feed the machine. Journalists asking questions an 8 year old could answer with little knowledge of the subject, asking questions no one could ever answer at the moment, trying to get an answer from a politician or so called expert that really common sense tells most people can only be answered once we come out the other side of all this.
Another thing, why do we need so much American news? I can't watch sky news because it is obsessed with America and now the BBC seems to think we want American news.
My comments are not just for the covid outbreak, there is just too much inane drivel repeated over and over again by people who really should know better on radio and TV.
Have a good day everyone, if you can.