Coronavirus Thread / New / Old / Merged

[Statto]

No conspiracy suggested for ivermectin, which I see is a generic drug with a range of manufacturers.

Indeed, just pointing out that it's no different from hydroxychloroquine in those respects.

[Logicalman]

I suppose, yes, it could be worse. We could be the US...

I notice today that, shock horror, that miracle drug (untested and not a cure apparently) that Trump has been banging on about (hydroxychloroquine or something), turns out he has 'a financial interest' in the manufacturers. Bent as a nine bob note, that one.

And genuinely quite, quite crazy going by recent press conferences.

Without wishing to deflect any criticism from our very own persona of POTUS, I have to say, if the link you refer to is the 'financial interest' in the French drug firm Sanofi, then it has to be said that the interest is via a Mutual Fund that has a holding in the drug company (of some 3%) which provides a total interest,based on the holdings in the MF, of some 3000 USD by the Trump Organization. Not exactly a story other than a pastime fact of minor consequence, especially when the total value of the person is considered.
Other than that I have little faith in the veracity of any content of that persons press conferences, or any other mutterings that might escape him, but that's a personal view and not, as some might report me for, political in any shape or form.

[Statto]

Getting "Herd Immunity without a Vaccine" would require 30 million people in the UK to gain immunity from Covid-19, which is 60x the official number of people worldwide that have so far gained herd immunity. I don't think the UK would be willing to accept 60x the current deaths of 120k in order to achieve herd immunity (i.e. 7 million deaths in the UK). Most experts assume that the number of people with herd immunity is much higher than the official figures, but unless the figures are more than 7x wrong (a real possibility but far from certain), then herd immunity may not be a path forward.

In summary, we cannot seriously consider herd immunity as a real option until governments know that the current official figures are wrong and wrong by a large amount. I would point out that we know the official UK figures are wrong estimating the death rate for herd immunity higher than it actually is, but no one knows if that error is small or large. If the error in UK official figures are small, then I don't think herd immunity is an option, as most people will just all go on the dole (especially doctors, nurses and aged care workers) rather than risk catching it.

Neither of us are experts but we'll see, won't we. Conservative estimates are putting the number of people already infected in the UK at 4% of the population. The first significant antibodies testing results emerged from Germany last week, indicating (unsurprisingly IMO) a lower mortality rate (0.37%) that would imply over 10% of the UK population has already had the virus. That's in two months, without it overwhelming ICUs. If figures like the latter are backed up by more data, it will be a no-brainer to go back to plan A, a managed outbreak and acquiring herd immunity before the next flu season (December).

[Holders]

It looks to me as if we're still pretty much on Plan A or else they'd have taken action earlier to reduce the level of the peak. The aim seems to be to deliberately peak  at about NHS saturation level to progress the infection through a significant part of the population quicker than if they'd taken earlier measures. It isn't the strategy being followed by some other countries.

None of us are experts, however closely we've followed this, and only time will tell.

[Mince n Tatties]

I noticed that over 200 successfully got in boats and crossed the channel and picked up by our Navy over the easter period....How many of them have it?
Are the French actually just letting them jump into boats and sending them on their way.
I laugh at the comments you read that another group were rescued... Rescued from what ...France?.
Nobody from anywhere should be allowed in while this is going on.

[Holders]

I noticed that over 200 successfully got in boats and crossed the channel and picked up by our Navy over the easter period....How many of them have it?
Are the French actually just letting them jump into boats and sending them on their way.
I laugh at the comments you read that another group were rescued... Rescued from what ...France?.
Nobody from anywhere should be allowed in while this is going on.

Yet the USA have banned flights from Europe and we haven't banned flights from there where the infection is even higher. When flights land there's no briefing as to isolation and they can just get on public transport.

[Statto]

The time it was worthwhile to pull up the drawbridge was probably mid-December. Now many millions of people here already have it, so personally I'm not worried about the few blokes in a boat or even a fully-packed airliner. Particularly since they'll probably be coming from somewhere where less people have it than here.

[Mince n Tatties]

The time it was worthwhile to pull up the drawbridge was probably mid-December. Now many millions of people here already have it, so personally I'm not worried about the few blokes in a boat or even a fully-packed airliner. Particularly since they'll probably be coming from somewhere where less people have it than here.

Really?
Only takes one in the plane or boat to be a carrier,and then pass it on to how many more?

[ByTheRiver]

The time it was worthwhile to pull up the drawbridge was probably mid-December. Now many millions of people here already have it, so personally I'm not worried about the few blokes in a boat or even a fully-packed airliner. Particularly since they'll probably be coming from somewhere where less people have it than here.

Really?
Only takes one in the plane or boat to be a carrier,and then pass it on to how many more?

We are the worst affected country in Europe (as predicted...). I don't think we can be high and mighty about a few lads in a boat from France. France are probably worried they are only 26 miles away from this comedy of errors.

BTW, if you are that worried about a couple of boats, you might not want to have a look at how many flights are still coming in to the various UK airports, on a daily basis, with no checks/tests from Spain, Italy, US, all over...

[Holders]

The time it was worthwhile to pull up the drawbridge was probably mid-December. Now many millions of people here already have it, so personally I'm not worried about the few blokes in a boat or even a fully-packed airliner. Particularly since they'll probably be coming from somewhere where less people have it than here.

Really?
Only takes one in the plane or boat to be a carrier,and then pass it on to how many more?

We are the worst affected country in Europe (as predicted...). I don't think we can be high and mighty about a few lads in a boat from France. France are probably worried they are only 26 miles away from this comedy of errors.

BTW, if you are that worried about a couple of boats, you might not want to have a look at how many flights are still coming in to the various UK airports, on a daily basis, with no checks/tests from Spain, Italy, US, all over...

Precisely

The Germans traced the Munich cluster back to one Chinese person.

[Mince n Tatties]

The time it was worthwhile to pull up the drawbridge was probably mid-December. Now many millions of people here already have it, so personally I'm not worried about the few blokes in a boat or even a fully-packed airliner. Particularly since they'll probably be coming from somewhere where less people have it than here.

Really?
Only takes one in the plane or boat to be a carrier,and then pass it on to how many more?

We are the worst affected country in Europe (as predicted...). I don't think we can be high and mighty about a few lads in a boat from France. France are probably worried they are only 26 miles away from this comedy of errors.

BTW, if you are that worried about a couple of boats, you might not want to have a look at how many flights are still coming in to the various UK airports, on a daily basis, with no checks/tests from Spain, Italy, US, all over...

A few lads in a boat?..lol 6 boats this past week.
Over 3,000 come across since last June..

[ByTheRiver]

The time it was worthwhile to pull up the drawbridge was probably mid-December. Now many millions of people here already have it, so personally I'm not worried about the few blokes in a boat or even a fully-packed airliner. Particularly since they'll probably be coming from somewhere where less people have it than here.

Really?
Only takes one in the plane or boat to be a carrier,and then pass it on to how many more?

We are the worst affected country in Europe (as predicted...). I don't think we can be high and mighty about a few lads in a boat from France. France are probably worried they are only 26 miles away from this comedy of errors.

BTW, if you are that worried about a couple of boats, you might not want to have a look at how many flights are still coming in to the various UK airports, on a daily basis, with no checks/tests from Spain, Italy, US, all over...

A few lads in a boat?..lol 6 boats this past week.
Over 3,000 come across since last June..

3000 since June? Well over 3000 Atletico fans flew over from Madrid (one of the heaviest hit European cities) in ONE DAY just four weeks ago. They couldn't watch their team play at home, La Liga suspended, but we welcomed them over for a mass gathering in an enclosed space.

Comedy. Of. Errors.

[Fulhamfan666]

The time it was worthwhile to pull up the drawbridge was probably mid-December. Now many millions of people here already have it, so personally I'm not worried about the few blokes in a boat or even a fully-packed airliner. Particularly since they'll probably be coming from somewhere where less people have it than here.

Really?
Only takes one in the plane or boat to be a carrier,and then pass it on to how many more?

We are the worst affected country in Europe (as predicted...). I don't think we can be high and mighty about a few lads in a boat from France. France are probably worried they are only 26 miles away from this comedy of errors.

BTW, if you are that worried about a couple of boats, you might not want to have a look at how many flights are still coming in to the various UK airports, on a daily basis, with no checks/tests from Spain, Italy, US, all over...

No we're not?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[ByTheRiver]

The time it was worthwhile to pull up the drawbridge was probably mid-December. Now many millions of people here already have it, so personally I'm not worried about the few blokes in a boat or even a fully-packed airliner. Particularly since they'll probably be coming from somewhere where less people have it than here.

Really?
Only takes one in the plane or boat to be a carrier,and then pass it on to how many more?

We are the worst affected country in Europe (as predicted...). I don't think we can be high and mighty about a few lads in a boat from France. France are probably worried they are only 26 miles away from this comedy of errors.

BTW, if you are that worried about a couple of boats, you might not want to have a look at how many flights are still coming in to the various UK airports, on a daily basis, with no checks/tests from Spain, Italy, US, all over...

No we're not?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

We're three weeks behind Spain and Italy, remember. Going to dwarf those at this rate!

[Statto]

The time it was worthwhile to pull up the drawbridge was probably mid-December. Now many millions of people here already have it, so personally I'm not worried about the few blokes in a boat or even a fully-packed airliner. Particularly since they'll probably be coming from somewhere where less people have it than here.

Really?
Only takes one in the plane or boat to be a carrier,and then pass it on to how many more?

We are the worst affected country in Europe (as predicted...). I don't think we can be high and mighty about a few lads in a boat from France. France are probably worried they are only 26 miles away from this comedy of errors.

BTW, if you are that worried about a couple of boats, you might not want to have a look at how many flights are still coming in to the various UK airports, on a daily basis, with no checks/tests from Spain, Italy, US, all over...

No we're not?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

We're three weeks behind Spain and Italy, remember. Going to dwarf those at this rate!

People on here (well, Mince) have given me stick for my posts about the data but really people should look at it for themselves before typing.

Apart from Germany, we and most of our peer countries (ie big, densely-populated European countries that experience high levels of international traffic) have followed almost exactly the same trajectory, albeit a few weeks apart, in terms of the number of infections, number of deaths, and the rate those things have progressed both before and after the lockdowns.

The UK, Italy, France and Spain (and proportionate to their population size, other countries such as Belgium) will all be affected to broadly the same degree. If anything we're on course to do slightly better than Belgium, Spain and probably France in terms of number of deaths. We'll also still be better off than Italy, not because we'll see much less cases/deaths, but because we've at least had more time to prepare and the outbreak will be less concentrated in a particular region. Yes we'll look poor in comparison to Germany, but great in comparison to New York state, which will be one of the worst affected regions in the developed world. You can't win 'em all. 

There's this totally false narrative that we're suffering the worst because we implemented our lockdown last. We implemented it at the same time as France and Germany, and before Ireland, among others.

Of course all this predicated on the idea that less infections is better. If the world decides this virus isn't deadly enough to justify the economic damage of a protracted lockdown, and decides to go for herd immunity, then countries/regions like New York and Spain will actually have an 'advantage' in that more of their population, perhaps 20%, will already have immunity.   

[filham]

Let us get back talking football and how we can possibly reach an end to this season.

The Lockdown has to continue for a good while yet, to suddenly finish it this week would be to risk a second, and larger, rise in deaths and a second Lockdown making it more and more difficult to get back to anywhere near normality.
When it is considered wise to lift Lockdown restrictions then it is becoming clear that this will need to be done gradually with priority being given to low risk but essential matters like getting people back to work and school.
Entertainment and Sport should be close to the bottom of the priority list. Assembling a crowd of 20,000 people at the Cottage has to be considered high risk and low priority, especially as we are in the hot spot area of London.

It is hard to see how we are going to meet again at the Cottage for a very long time and therefore work should start on preparing a proposal of behind closed door games with massive TV coverage in order to reach a conclusion to the 19/20 season.

[ByTheRiver]

The time it was worthwhile to pull up the drawbridge was probably mid-December. Now many millions of people here already have it, so personally I'm not worried about the few blokes in a boat or even a fully-packed airliner. Particularly since they'll probably be coming from somewhere where less people have it than here.

Really?
Only takes one in the plane or boat to be a carrier,and then pass it on to how many more?

We are the worst affected country in Europe (as predicted...). I don't think we can be high and mighty about a few lads in a boat from France. France are probably worried they are only 26 miles away from this comedy of errors.

BTW, if you are that worried about a couple of boats, you might not want to have a look at how many flights are still coming in to the various UK airports, on a daily basis, with no checks/tests from Spain, Italy, US, all over...

No we're not?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

We're three weeks behind Spain and Italy, remember. Going to dwarf those at this rate!

People on here (well, Mince) have given me stick for my posts about the data but really people should look at it for themselves before typing.

Apart from Germany, we and most of our peer countries (ie big, densely-populated European countries that experience high levels of international traffic) have followed almost exactly the same trajectory, albeit a few weeks apart, in terms of the number of infections, number of deaths, and the rate those things have progressed both before and after the lockdowns.

The UK, Italy, France and Spain (and proportionate to their population size, other countries such as Belgium) will all be affected to broadly the same degree. If anything we're on course to do slightly better than Belgium, Spain and probably France in terms of number of deaths. We'll also still be better off than Italy, not because we'll see much less cases/deaths, but because we've at least had more time to prepare and the outbreak will be less concentrated in a particular region. Yes we'll look poor in comparison to Germany, but great in comparison to New York state, which will be one of the worst affected regions in the developed world. You can't win 'em all. 

There's this totally false narrative that we're suffering the worst because we implemented our lockdown last. We implemented it at the same time as France and Germany, and before Ireland, among others.

Of course all this predicated on the idea that less infections is better. If the world decides this virus isn't deadly enough to justify the economic damage of a protracted lockdown, and decides to go for herd immunity, then countries/regions like New York and Spain will actually have an 'advantage' in that more of their population, perhaps 20%, will already have immunity.   

Disagree with almost everything here, old bean. I don't want to bore people with as to why, but this short succinct '5 min read' in The Independent yesterday covers most of the points I've made previously. I implore everyone here to have a read (it's literally 5 mins) regardless of their current mindset.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-uk-deaths-lockdown-boris-johnson-nhs-testing-a9462951.html

[FFC1987]

I really struggle to appreciate the leading source on an opinion being from the independent. Once a great paper with amazing journalistic integrity, now a shallow, click baity hole of half truths and political smears. I'll give it a read but will likely take with a pinch of salt.

[ByTheRiver]

I really struggle to appreciate the leading source on an opinion being from the independent. Once a great paper with amazing journalistic integrity, now a shallow, click baity hole of half truths and political smears. I'll give it a read but will likely take with a pinch of salt.

Fair. It wasn't that it was in The Independent, just that it brought together my own thoughts (and some much longer, detailed articles I've read) in a very digestible, immediate way. I'm hoping that will get more people to read it and then potentially explore further...

[Mince n Tatties]

Tom Peck... 064.gif